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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,261
  • Jan 24, 2024 11:53pm Jan 24, 2024 11:53pm
Quoting moneymaker2
The only ones that I have found that look promising is NFLX Put (but they are too expensive for my liking)
Tasty team did a study of big earnings gappers some time ago - they showed that big earnings gainers, more often than not, do not retrace much of their gain in the near term following the ER. If I were to trade NFLX, I'd wait for its options iv's to crater in the coming week or so and then buy cheap put spreads....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,262
  • Jan 24, 2024 11:57pm Jan 24, 2024 11:57pm
Quoting The Fool
The russell has been on fire, looking for decent continuation to close the week...
RUT really swings on any rate-related data or actual rate moves. I will need a big move north to make some money on the calendars. I have some low as 2030 - a move above 2000 Friday would pay ok.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,263
  • Jan 25, 2024 8:18am Jan 25, 2024 8:18am
I have a Bid in for the following:

DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.50

But I'll see if I can't get it a little cheaper at the open, depending on what Bid/Ask price opens at.
  • #19,264
  • Jan 25, 2024 9:09am Jan 25, 2024 9:09am
Quoting moneymaker2
I have a Bid in for the following: DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.50 But I'll see if I can't get it a little cheaper at the open, depending on what Bid/Ask price opens at.
Gapped up a little, so got in at the following:

DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.70

Bumped my Bid to $1.65 initially, and one exchange Ask went to that, but mine didn't get hit, so I had to push the Ask price of the others.

More than I wanted to pay, but it should be good for some money.
  • #19,265
  • Jan 25, 2024 12:39pm Jan 25, 2024 12:39pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Gapped up a little, so got in at the following: DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.70 Bumped my Bid to $1.65 initially, and one exchange Ask went to that, but mine didn't get hit, so I had to push the Ask price of the others. More than I wanted to pay, but it should be good for some money.
I have some Hail Mary Bids out for the following:

DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.30

DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.45
  • #19,266
  • Edited Jan 26, 2024 10:01am Jan 25, 2024 1:43pm | Edited Jan 26, 2024 10:01am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I have some Hail Mary Bids out for the following: DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.30 DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.45
In the following:

DD Feb16 65 CALL at $1.25, bringing the average down to $1.475

DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.40

Got in a little better than expected. Now, we wait.......
  • #19,267
  • Jan 26, 2024 12:06am Jan 26, 2024 12:06am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}RUT really swings on any rate-related data or actual rate moves.
do or die on PCE reaction Friday early
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,268
  • Jan 26, 2024 12:34pm Jan 26, 2024 12:34pm
This was an ugly sideways week for the RUT and my directional trades all have failed. I kept them pretty small but fml...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,269
  • Jan 26, 2024 1:58pm Jan 26, 2024 1:58pm
Out of the following:

DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.90 up from $0.40

That was a nice little chunk of change. I might could have gotten more, but had a GTC order on at $0.90 from yesterday, but a good profit none the less.
  • #19,270
  • Jan 26, 2024 2:04pm Jan 26, 2024 2:04pm
I think I am going to do a few trades that are already in the money with some that are out of the money and see if it might be worth spending a little more and buying fewer contracts and cheaper but more contracts. On paper it is hard to determine since each strike price option chain is like a separate entity, and rather than watching level II chains for days, I'll just let reality do the math for me.
  • #19,271
  • Jan 26, 2024 2:17pm Jan 26, 2024 2:17pm
Quoting The Fool
This was an ugly sideways week for the RUT and my directional trades all have failed. I kept them pretty small but fml...
That sucks, TF. On my charts, nearly all the indexes have no clear direction (for my purposes, anyway). The S&P 500 looks like it might have a pullback next week, but that's about it.
  • #19,272
  • Jan 26, 2024 3:08pm Jan 26, 2024 3:08pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} That sucks, TF. On my charts, nearly all the indexes have no clear direction (for my purposes, anyway). The S&P 500 looks like it might have a pullback next week, but that's about it.
some of the RUT calendars came off at be, the rest were 50% loss or more. On the plus side, SPX iron condors I am in love a sideways market. I am evolving out of directional trades, generally. Just not worth it in a market with no range. 2023 had the tightest range in the indices in decades.

No-range markets more suited for stock pickers, like you, or for premium sellers, like the future me. Only problem with the latter is no range = no premium, usually. I'd say we will see some volatility sometime this year, probably in the month or two leading up to the elections.

Next week, we have the Fed & NFP - may or may not be enough to break the range. Week after we are into the heart of earnings. I have some earnings trades that will make money.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,273
  • Jan 29, 2024 9:27am Jan 29, 2024 9:27am
In the following, again:

DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.30

Should be able to squeeze a little more out of this over the next day or so....
  • #19,274
  • Jan 29, 2024 3:18pm Jan 29, 2024 3:18pm
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following, again: DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.30 Should be able to squeeze a little more out of this over the next day or so....
Well, I was away from the computer today and it dropped more than expected. I had a Hail Mary Bid out at what I THOUGHT would be a low ball price and got home to see it was hit. So, good or bad, I am in the following:

DD Feb02 65 CALL at $0.15, bringing the average down to $0.164

Good or bad, I now have a butt-load of it, though it didn't cost much. lets see if we can't get a decent pot over the next few days. If so, it will be a decent chunk of change. If not, I should still be able to salvage a good part of it.
  • #19,275
  • Jan 31, 2024 10:32am Jan 31, 2024 10:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Tasty team did a study of big earnings gappers some time ago - they showed that big earnings gainers, more often than not, do not retrace much of their gain in the near term following the ER. If I were to trade NFLX, I'd wait for its options iv's to crater in the coming week or so and then buy cheap put spreads....
they looked at this again and the study is in today's tastylive broadcast, at 2:00:00, good info....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,276
  • Jan 31, 2024 3:47pm Jan 31, 2024 3:47pm
will be interesting to see how much hopium will blow out of the bubble. we could get some geopoli news (where else?) that feeds the bears...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,277
  • Jan 31, 2024 4:37pm Jan 31, 2024 4:37pm
double diagonal for Friday...if we are still down tomorrow I will probably take off most of the put side.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,278
  • Jan 31, 2024 11:15pm Jan 31, 2024 11:15pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} That sucks, TF. On my charts, nearly all the indexes have no clear direction (for my purposes, anyway). The S&P 500 looks like it might have a pullback next week, but that's about it.
Well, it had that pullback today. Unfortunately, it dragged Dupont down even more, so that moves out the chart for another expiration and maybe a different strike, too. Or I may just let it alone and look elsewhere. Probably have something ready out there by Friday close.
  • #19,279
  • Feb 2, 2024 10:34am Feb 2, 2024 10:34am
Well, I'm out of the following:

DD Feb02 65 CALL at $ 0.00 down from $0.164

So that expiration was a bust, but I added to the following:

DD Feb16 65 CALL at $0.40, bringing the average down to $0.712

Also, got into the following:

DD Mar15 62.5 CALL at $1.40
  • #19,280
  • Feb 2, 2024 1:28pm Feb 2, 2024 1:28pm
trying fill this dbl diagonal for next Friday
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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