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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,461
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:33am Jun 21, 2007 4:33am
Watch market! Europe market drop and if drop USA market we see some corection and well go to new high
  • #6,462
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:39am Jun 21, 2007 4:39am
My knowledge of JPY is still weak: can anyone point an internet site where there is more than just news (like detailed relation to China and USA market-wise)? Would be much appreciated.
  • #6,463
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:48am Jun 21, 2007 4:48am
relation between USA-China.... look big reserves of China maybe reverse to JPY because grow export to China from Japan Just my opinion. looks good resistens to stregth JPY bus some down possible and after looks up trend.
  • #6,464
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:51am Jun 21, 2007 4:51am
07:49USD/JPY takes one on the chin after failing up at 123.75 area again
  • #6,465
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:20am Jun 21, 2007 7:20am
the crosses seem undecided today....they dont seem to know what to do
  • #6,466
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:22am Jun 21, 2007 7:22am
Quoting ns_karthik
the crosses seem undecided today....they dont seem to know what to do
yup, it's confused lol
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,467
  • Jun 21, 2007 8:15am Jun 21, 2007 8:15am
They seem relaxed; GJ is bouncing, but volume and shadow pins are roomy on up and down. Apparently everybody desires a jump upstairs but is prepared for a quick drop if fibo is seriously breeched.
  • #6,468
  • Jun 21, 2007 12:21pm Jun 21, 2007 12:21pm
currently long gbp/jpy since 246.10...not sure whether to close or not? any suggestions?
  • #6,469
  • Jun 21, 2007 12:28pm Jun 21, 2007 12:28pm
close half:
  • #6,470
  • Jun 21, 2007 12:34pm Jun 21, 2007 12:34pm
Quoting syerram2
currently long gbp/jpy since 246.10...not sure whether to close or not? any suggestions?
It all depends on how you set your risk/reward. For some people who trade 'heavy' 20ps is a place to take some profit. I don't like buying at the top, but if I was in this trade, I'd take a look at a daily pattern. G/J went straight up for 8 days (higher close). Look at a dailies as far back as you can to see if any type of correction is due.

FWIW:
if you see gbp/chf turning down. I'd consider closing that position
  • #6,471
  • Jun 21, 2007 3:14pm Jun 21, 2007 3:14pm
Same rumour, keep coming...

18:08 There has been some talk regarding a possible suprise hike out of China later today. We would not be shocked to see that happen.

Best strategy: skip the frenzy, fish the bottoms.
  • #6,472
  • Jun 21, 2007 3:20pm Jun 21, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting cesarnc
Same rumour, keep coming...

18:08 There has been some talk regarding a possible suprise hike out of China later today. We would not be shocked to see that happen.

Best strategy: skip the frenzy, fish the bottoms.
mate what in particular u use to determine bottoms? fibs? breaks of downtrend lines? higher highs/higher lows? cheers

good to see u back
  • #6,473
  • Jun 21, 2007 3:28pm Jun 21, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting aslan
mate what in particular u use to determine bottoms? fibs? breaks of downtrend lines? higher highs/higher lows? cheers

good to see u back
I actually trade GJ looking at GU's and UJ's support and resistances. On UJ, good options are Pivot levels and the 100 hour EMA. Have a look at how UJ traded those levels yesterday and today and you will know what a mean.

In this case (China hike), the affected would be UJ only, GJ hit for simpathy. So I start building small long positions in UJ and GJ when UJ stalls at expected supports. If it goes on dropping, I go on adding. When the bounce off support is confirmed (breach of next pivot level on the upside - expected resistance) I add to longs.

After that I start taking profit at the following pivot levels...

Makes sense?!
  • #6,474
  • Jun 21, 2007 3:36pm Jun 21, 2007 3:36pm
Looking forward we have no major economic news scheduled tonight but last night saw comments out of China. Also, this weekend’s annual meeting of the Bank of International Settlements will bring central banks together. There is some talk the carry trade will be discussed and we could see some positioning in front of this meeting. It will be interesting to see if traders in the Asia session will continue selling JPY and push USD/JPY over the 123.80 level. USD/CAD also appears to be bottoming out and may look to test higher.

Those "carry trade events" are usually good to shake up the things a little, test supports and all, imo
  • #6,475
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:19pm Jun 21, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting cesarnc
Looking forward we have no major economic news scheduled tonight but last night saw comments out of China. Also, this weekend’s annual meeting of the Bank of International Settlements will bring central banks together. There is some talk the carry trade will be discussed and we could see some positioning in front of this meeting. It will be interesting to see if traders in the Asia session will continue selling JPY and push USD/JPY over the 123.80 level. USD/CAD also appears to be bottoming out and may look to test higher.

Those "carry trade events" are usually good to shake up the things a little, test supports and all, imo
cesarnc, Do you think the treasury yield is going to be a problem for the market again?
  • #6,476
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:26pm Jun 21, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting trader8686
cesarnc, Do you think the treasury yield is going to be a problem for the market again?
I don't know.

What is not smelling nice for me are the strongly erratic sessions in the US stock market. -150 one day, +150 on the other. Today, dow jones put -80 to close +56, after yesterday's -146.

I don't have any charts that show dow jones in candlesticks (anyone??) , but I would suspect that several dojis or "almost dojis" are being formed consistently. This would be an indication that the uptrend is getting weaker and a major correction might be on its way.
  • #6,477
  • Jun 21, 2007 4:55pm Jun 21, 2007 4:55pm
You can download DJ and other data feed (realtime) and free for Metastock and Omega analysis in http://www.akmos.com/software/ downloading IDLe software... that's free


Quoting cesarnc
I don't know.

What is not smelling nice for me are the strongly erratic sessions in the US stock market. -150 one day, +150 on the other. Today, dow jones put -80 to close +56, after yesterday's -146.

I don't have any charts that show dow jones in candlesticks (anyone??) , but I would suspect that several dojis or "almost dojis" are being formed consistently. This would be an indication that the uptrend is getting weaker and a major correction might be on its way.
  • #6,478
  • Jun 21, 2007 5:04pm Jun 21, 2007 5:04pm
Hey Cesarnc, Good to see your posts again, I love your work. I trade the GBP/JPY in a very similar style watching GBP/USD and USD/JPY.
If you want Dow Jones Charts, I use this mob http://www.alpari-idc.ru/en/download/. I think they offer a load of other indexes and futures. Interesting to see a double top on the Dow Jones.
  • #6,479
  • Jun 21, 2007 5:08pm Jun 21, 2007 5:08pm
Thanks lyricus and pablo.

I've been out of the thread coz I've been out of GJ lately. Missed the big run up, although I was going long GU and UJ alternately.

I'm keeping this way until some good confirmation of GU out of its downwards channel (looking for breach of 9960-70) and UJ making breaking the 123.80/124.

Until then, I'm a scalper only.
  • #6,480
  • Jun 21, 2007 6:38pm Jun 21, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting cesarnc
I actually trade GJ looking at GU's and UJ's support and resistances. On UJ, good options are Pivot levels and the 100 hour EMA. Have a look at how UJ traded those levels yesterday and today and you will know what a mean.

In this case (China hike), the affected would be UJ only, GJ hit for simpathy. So I start building small long positions in UJ and GJ when UJ stalls at expected supports. If it goes on dropping, I go on adding. When the bounce off support is confirmed (breach of next pivot level on the upside - expected resistance) I add to longs.

After that I start taking profit at the following pivot levels...

Makes sense?!

Curious as to what kind of stop loss you use when trading like this?
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