Islander and Medici trade the European open

A multi-scale review of the week in three overlapping pictures.

What a week it was, and I am happy with my catch for the week, but I also felt that I was too focused on the scalping perspective when big moves were underway. For the purpose of improving my longer-term view I decided to review and refresh a multi-scale model that I used to use daily. Multi-scale models are frequently used for financial forecasting (see e.g. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10...540-48061-7_66). You may be familiar with similar approaches from parisboy's thread Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles.

The charts below are my attempt at a simple model for use in trading NQ. It's based on Hull Moving Average Keltner channels. Why HMA? Because it's a linear predictor of the WMA of half its period length.

Happy to share details should anyone be interested. These are 15m charts.

NQ 15 mn

For comparison: two versions, differing in the red envelope only.

Merci Alain, that is very elegant. For the daily I've found a simple setup that works for me - 100 day VWAP/VWMA (around which a 5 day Keltner channel can helpful), WMA17, and Cumulative RSI. Which shows me divergence in the RSI at a rather elevated level at the moment. But any pullback from these levels will need some time to ripen, just like the Isigny Camembert we have in the fridge

Quick picture of this mornings Dax action. Got lost in the oscillator labyrinth last couple of days, but learned a few things i hope. At first the OB/OS showings threw me off as it fed the contrarian in me so focused more on the mid line and i like the Stoch RSI atm(bars colored via that). With the CCI im still not sure what to make of it. More or less it's showing the position of current price in relation to the chosen average length, just like the ma would on the chart, the additioal value comes by visualising the distances prices moves away (correct me if im wrong). I tried replacing the fast ema with a slower BB sma, but the fast ema helps me stay close to the action, so kept the bands and ditched the central sma. I like the BB in trend PB situations where price quickly moves countertrend then stops. Also the BB squezze is sth i find helpful (see top around 9:15)
Adding new tools to my toolbox often leads to a phase of chaos, because my focus shifts (subconsciously)to the new things. Needs time to settle, more back- and live-testing.

Hey Medici, is the offer for the multi timeframe settings still on, would love to have a look at it?
Happy trading everyone

I agree. Too much stuff on the chart, and I find it hard to make decisions. So I've been attempting to declutter my charts this week. One radical version, which I like, is to trade with just the VWAP bands and a Hull Keltner channel. On the 700 tick chart I use a period of 200 with bands at 3 ATR. See below, using a version where the colouring of the candles is used for signals. One can of course add an MA or two, and I do.

And of course, the parameters for the 15m channels are (107, 3.1), (429, 6.2), and (1717, 12.4).

Like Medici, I too have reduced the clutter on my charts, M 1 to Daily all have similar inputs.....one MA with one or two bands, ATR & Volume

I stay with time charts and also keep my "levels" including the Daily Pivots on M5 & M1

and on M 5

M 15 & M60

Another interesting week in the markets during which my development time has gone to the Hull Moving Average.

The HMA is interesting because it isn't as lagging as other moving averages, and it is less whipsaw prone. Mathematically it's closer to predictive linear regression that a regular, lagging, moving average.

Staying on time-based charts, as that's what most people here use, below is a chart of Friday's session in the Nasdaq index. It's a one minute chart and the coloured lines are HMAs of lengths 100, 200, and 400. As usual the game is about using MAs as dynamic support/resistance levels. Can you figure out rules to trade this with?

There's a couple of threads here on FF by people who have traded profitably with the HMA, which you can explore for inspiration, but it's an underdeveloped area of trading methodology. There's opportunity here.

And here's the big picture (4h chart) in the Nasdaq index.

And the nearer term view of the coming week, with FOMC statement on Wednesday, on the hourly chart.

At a threshold.

Indeed it is....

Especially after YDs action.....

Which of course is smoother with tick charts Here WMA150/0.30% and WMA55 on a 700 tick chart,

Or range bar charts, if you like.

NQ at critical point, it would seem.

wow - so after years of searching for a group that trade the DAX i came across you guys -
i see in recent post you mention a 'Room' is there some sort of telegram group you run ?
Dax groups / rooms or just people in general willing to share ideas etc seems pretty scarce ...

regards
Nelly