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The Swamp

  • #114,661
  • Jan 19, 2024 8:55am Jan 19, 2024 8:55am
CS in 5 min
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,662
  • Jan 19, 2024 9:02am Jan 19, 2024 9:02am
good for usd
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,663
  • Jan 19, 2024 9:06am Jan 19, 2024 9:06am
eu slipping below 0874 may run
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,664
  • Jan 19, 2024 9:19am Jan 19, 2024 9:19am
The last 2 days closed above 0874. The last 12h too. At the end of today, if it closes below 0874. That should let it fall next week. The closer the close to the 0801 may reduce the amount of drop.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,665
  • Jan 19, 2024 9:22am Jan 19, 2024 9:22am
Bulls dont want to give up. The 6h close in 38 min. London is about to leave for the week
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,666
  • Jan 19, 2024 9:35am Jan 19, 2024 9:35am
Waiting time...

“To become a great trader, you must first become a great observer of market behavior.”

Mark Douglas
  • #114,667
  • Jan 19, 2024 9:36am Jan 19, 2024 9:36am
out shorts, added longs
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,668
  • Jan 19, 2024 10:05am Jan 19, 2024 10:05am
That 6h close was above several of my thresholds. Since the day 12h, and now. The 6h eu is 0874 +. I will wait for 0930.. I tp'd my aud shorts in anticipation it will run back to 0.66
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,669
  • Jan 19, 2024 10:16am Jan 19, 2024 10:16am
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  • #114,670
  • Edited 12:16pm Jan 19, 2024 12:05pm | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
That 6h close was above several of my thresholds. Since the day 12h, and now. The 6h eu is 0874 +. I will wait for 0930.. I tp'd my aud shorts in anticipation it will run back to 0.66
The week is still open. If the week shall close 0875+. I have to start looking for a rise. The year and day closed below 1041. But 1.1036/41 may be a major Resistance now. 0874+ 1 week average range is 1.1030. If it can pass 1.0930/39.9. area. The week has yet to close. But its still above the 200 day.. Now I regret not longing 0848.
Quoting gatorinla
I have bearish closes on the year, 6 month, quarter, month, week, close. The day and 12h can force a bounce. If that was to happen 0848ish may be the place. Its tricky here {quote} {image}
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its above 0874..So its bullish since yesterday's close, before that the 12h was above. But it made a LL after the 12h. That was unusual. The week close did favor a push lower from 0939.. That push less than 100 pips. I wanted more. i never trust a 200 day to give up easily. It could get funky because LC is 0848.. With the day above 0875 close. We may see it whipsaw to 0848 and back up
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I like to think back below 0874 is bearish. It may be, its tricky. Since the day and 12h closed above 0874. It may whipsaw back up after 0848ish. 0851 was close to 0848. That whipsaw can take it back to {image}
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,671
  • Jan 19, 2024 12:22pm Jan 19, 2024 12:22pm
ATM bears dont look like they will hold 0874x.. Next higher spot 0930.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,672
  • Jan 19, 2024 12:32pm Jan 19, 2024 12:32pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Yeah it can def.continue. Next week too? it’s near all time high and there is u.s budget in congress today. Could be a equity A.I craze. I took a short and long AJ Edit: AJ long might have to cancel
4850 ?
  • #114,673
  • Jan 19, 2024 12:32pm Jan 19, 2024 12:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
ATM bears dont look like they will hold 0874x.. Next higher spot 0930.
The only level I'm willing to trade. 1.0925-30 could be a 100 pips trade most probably.
  • #114,674
  • Jan 19, 2024 4:27pm Jan 19, 2024 4:27pm
PA Closed today above 0875. 0874 bears will failed. To me 1041 is the difference between bear/bull. The year, and all other time frames at the time, closed below it. ATM pa is below 1041. The next larger time frame is the week. Since we dont have a year, mid year, quarter, month, closing today. The week being the largest. I look to a possible resistance at. 0930/40 area. The eu has a thing for 100 pips. A while back I gave the 0.0040s ish series. 114x 1041 0939.9 084x 0741. For some reason the eu likes these 40s area numbers. If this be the case. I have 0930, with 0939.9 with it. It's about the 1/2 mark (1042) of this week's low to 1041.

To me the larger time frames are bearish. Today missed closed below 0874. That's not in the larger direction. Pa ran into all those 200 mas. Bears may need to regroup. That regroup may be somewhere below 1041. Getting closer to 1041 can be harder then 2023 was. In the middle is 0942. 0942 is famous in the Euro history. If it makes it to there next weeks. Monitor 0930 +- closes. That can send pa back to the 200s and 0874x. Monday it may climb. Tuesday or monday it has a shot at closing below 0874 again. Using adr. Next week may be a copy of this week. Using close to 0942 area as a possible high. A average week can test the 200 day at 0801.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,675
  • Edited 4:49pm Jan 19, 2024 4:36pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
PA Closed today above 0875. 0874 bears will failed. To me 1041 is the difference between bear/bull. The year, and all other time frames at the time, closed below it. ATM pa is below 1041. The next larger time frame is the week. Since we dont have a year, mid year, quarter, month, closing today. The week being the largest. I look to a possible resistance at. 0930/40 area. The eu has a thing for 100 pips. A while back I gave the 0.0040s ish series. 114x 1041 0939.9 084x 0741. For some reason the eu likes these 40s area numbers. If this be the case....
Over the weekend i may find some entries to pend on multiple pairs. I will try to pick some gems with sweetspot entries with 5X + reward goals.
Most of my trades did well. I had warnings when to close. Its never easy to trade in the face of those 200s. If 1041 is right. Eventually those 200s, and 0741 will fall. That will leave a lot of money here to share. Money is fine. But always not worth the friends, etc, you leave behind. Go get a few hs of your "Mexican village" this weekend. Listen to some music. Its too cold for me to catch some fish.
Try some country, your soul may need it. You may like it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,676
  • Jan 19, 2024 7:25pm Jan 19, 2024 7:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
PA Closed today above 0875. 0874 bears will failed. To me 1041 is the difference between bear/bull. The year, and all other time frames at the time, closed below it. ATM pa is below 1041. The next larger time frame is the week. Since we dont have a year, mid year, quarter, month, closing today. The week being the largest. I look to a possible resistance at. 0930/40 area. The eu has a thing for 100 pips. A while back I gave the 0.0040s ish series. 114x 1041 0939.9 084x 0741. For some reason the eu likes these 40s area numbers. If this be the case....
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Quoting gatorinla
Using close to 0942 area as a possible high. A average week can test the 200 day at 0801.
Week average range is 155 pips. Around 0930/46 +- area can give -0801. But dont be fooled with a close below. It will still require a day close below 0741. So it may bounce again. If it gets to that point some new R may develop. Since it loves 100 pips. 0840 area may be R. as it is support today. Just a guess
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,677
  • Jan 19, 2024 8:18pm Jan 19, 2024 8:18pm
AUD red sea and all. Pa like the eu closed above 0.6582 . So in shorter term. I cant say its bearish until its back below 06582. I will generate fresh numbers in a few days. It may possibly gap open below .6582. Since its already below the 200 day ema, wit a week close. That is bearish. That shorter term may force it to 6000 200. See chart. Don't bitch it it hits .6010. This .6001 area can be a sweet spot. I closed my trade when pa closed the 6h above 6582. I may have messed up. But I had profit and 0 risk. With a chance to get back at the same price. The day closed above 6582, so my chance it better. I dont what it will do. 1.The red Sea, unrest fundi wise is not good for the Aud. 2. The ua is under it's 200 day ema. I think the only reason it bounced was 6530 day trend support. I think it will break. When, I dont know. After a break the week trend sits at 6246. Or about 350 pips from the 200 ema at .6601.. Risk wise can be worth the reward. No need to risk the mule. Smaller trades add up. Reward 6601 to 6530 is 71 pips. This area 6601/6530 is like eu 8001/0741. The GBP looks to be the toughest veres the usd. So it me be a better one to pair a aud short with. The yen is another. The kiwi another.

The gbpjpy looks like the best long. ADR is 177 pips. That's 100 more than eu. The week average range is 346. The close Friday was not a higher close. It may allow some slip to a support. The support I like at 185.94. Its bullish so it may not retrace there. That level is 200 pips lower than currently. I will not short it. I will wait for a entry. The opper 185.xx/186.0x area.. Its big mover. So it may run over 185.94. Watch the close.. The week has already close above it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,678
  • Jan 19, 2024 8:26pm Jan 19, 2024 8:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
AUD red sea and all. Pa like the eu closed above 0.6582 . So in shorter term. I cant say its bearish until its back below 06582. I will generate fresh numbers in a few days. It may possibly gap open below .6582. Since its already below the 200 day ema, wit a week close. That is bearish. That shorter term may force it to 6000 200. See chart. Don't bitch it it hits .6010. This .6001 area can be a sweet spot. I closed my trade when pa closed the 6h above 6582. I may have messed up. But I had profit and 0 risk. With a chance to get back at the same...
The GA has been as high as 251..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,679
  • Jan 19, 2024 8:29pm Jan 19, 2024 8:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The GA has been as high as 251.. {image}
10 years later at 195.

on a week chart we got pa above a week and day 200 with some closes.

Quoting gatorinla
on a week chart we got pa above a week and day 200 with some closes. {image}
DT on the week with a lower close. So it may retrace to that 186ish entry.
A s/o considering it may break out. On the Red Sea Fundis plus being above those 200s.. May be worth the risk. For a swing and maybe a long time position trade.
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There will always be 2 sides to a coin. The largest period since the year close is the one week. Last week pa closed above 1.2723. This week the close was below 1.2723. Those 2 closes are in conflict for bull/bear. The month will not close for 11 days. At the months end I will like to revisit this. If 1.2723 is not allowing month closes above 2723. This maybe be a topformation. If so 2634 would be unable to hold support. PA on the GBP is still above the the day 200 ma's. Last week did close above 2634. PA had a chance to close above 2723 last week, but did not. That may help a fall back to 2634. Pa may be in this 90 pips of frog in a blender 1.2634/1.2723. 90 pips is too tight to contain its 170 pip adr. The GBP seems like it will be extremely volatile. Neither 2634 or 2723 may be able to hold it in. The stops would need to be 100 pips more on either side. It may be best to leave this one alone. Or find a entry spot 100ish pips out the perimeter to enter. Next week looks to be breeding grounds for a whipsaw on GBP. Its a beast
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,680
  • Jan 20, 2024 4:20pm Jan 20, 2024 4:20pm
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NC ditched longs, added x shorts.
EU
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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