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The Swamp

  • #114,581
  • Jan 17, 2024 1:57pm Jan 17, 2024 1:57pm
Longing the gbp against the aud was the winner today. The gbp kicked ass after the news on all pairs.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,582
  • Edited 2:19pm Jan 17, 2024 2:08pm | Edited 2:19pm
The gbp is strong. Its above its day 200. Its below its week 200 the red dashed line. It dont appear it will happen atm. If it does close today below 2634. The usd may change place with the GBP. More so if the week closes below 2634. While above 2634 its also above that 200 day ema. If the gbp losses its crown verse the usd. The eg suggest the euro to fall harder. The AUD Kiwi and yen are the stepchilds.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,583
  • Jan 17, 2024 2:25pm Jan 17, 2024 2:25pm
2.5 hs after the market closes. Aud news will come. If its bad like the trend/Red Sea suggest. The Aud and Kiwi may fall verse other pairs. This anticipation may be some of the reason the gbp rose verse the aud so high.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,584
  • Jan 17, 2024 2:29pm Jan 17, 2024 2:29pm
earlier the 1h 100 tamed the GBP beast. If it would now. The unlikely close below 2634 could happen.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,585
  • Jan 17, 2024 2:33pm Jan 17, 2024 2:33pm
trip swap day
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,586
  • Jan 17, 2024 3:08pm Jan 17, 2024 3:08pm
With 1 h to go, unless the usd pumps. It looks like the usd may be weak against European pairs tonight. Unless it can recover.
Against the Swiss looks better than the other 2
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,587
  • Jan 17, 2024 4:56pm Jan 17, 2024 4:56pm
Today the gbp and euro to me closed on a bull side. Both may run some to a R. The GBP looks to have an edge. But it may not have a much room above 2734. Thats 60 pips higher. Somewhere in there it may fall.
It may go sideways.. But if it does make it back below 2649 that can turn bearish. If the GBP cant run. The eu should be limited too. If the eu does take the likely support below 0874. All bet off on the long. The same with gbp 2649. The Day 200ema at 0800. + adr 73 pips. May allow eu 0873. Its above that atm. Aud news will be out in 1h +. That may move the needle some. Keep am eye on the aud..It may bring some bacon.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,588
  • Jan 17, 2024 5:01pm Jan 17, 2024 5:01pm
I may be wrong. I think u.s. sentiment may start ticking up. At least before Red Sea inflation hits the charts. Either one of these helps the USD. Tomorrow u.s. sentiment on the barbie
GBP will do something too. They are expecting a negative retail sale report. Whoever does the estimates, apparently dont see good things in the future. That being December. That seems bad on a Christmas month. We will see. The beast runs.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,589
  • Jan 17, 2024 5:09pm Jan 17, 2024 5:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
I may be wrong. I think u.s. sentiment may start ticking up. At least before Red Sea inflation hits the charts. Either one of these helps the USD. Tomorrow u.s. sentiment on the barbie GBP will do something too. They are expecting a negative retail sale report. Whoever does the estimates, apparently dont see good things in the future. That being December. That seems bad on a Christmas month. We will see. The beast runs. {image}
Since the Aud has been down in the last few days you think bad news has already been taken into affect ? Or could this be another leg down even further.
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #114,590
  • Jan 17, 2024 5:11pm Jan 17, 2024 5:11pm
Quoting Mickster
{quote} Since the Aud has been down in the last few days you think bad news has already been taken into affect ? Or could this be another leg down even further.
What I think dont matter. What's proven after a thought matters
So far, the unrest is just chest poking. If there are punches thrown. The Aud has much more to lose.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,591
  • Jan 17, 2024 5:21pm Jan 17, 2024 5:21pm
Poor data out of China is also having a negative impact on NZD and AUD
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #114,592
  • Jan 17, 2024 7:17pm Jan 17, 2024 7:17pm
I didnt think the AUD would rise after the news.. It may give a gift. .6582 area possible short
-65k is 5X the red that was anticipated.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,593
  • Jan 17, 2024 7:25pm Jan 17, 2024 7:25pm
Quoting Ferna
So in short: Huge factory being built in Germany. Lock China out. Alot of profits coming in but varies with economy. A.I has no reasoning capability. Friend with senator portman of Ohio. Gellinger is pro U.S and pro Europe, but also a salesman. Wants AI everywhere. China 10 year behind chipwise. Sub 2.5 nanometer chips by 2025. I guess China wants a piece of Taiwan.
China shoots themselves in the foot. Trying to get Russian and Iranian oil. They get the oil but exports shipping will cost so much. It will defeat the purpose.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,594
  • Jan 17, 2024 7:27pm Jan 17, 2024 7:27pm
Quoting Ferna
Davos: Pat Gellinger(CEO of Intel and the chier architect of 486 chips in the 80s..) talking to Klaus Schwaub. Gellinger: Chip Technology originate from U.S and Europe, yet only 20% of the production is done here. Let’s rebuild the industry and aim for 50/50 by 2030. Gellinger: there been an oversupply of memory cards, might go into and undersupply. Huge cyclical variations in demand. Gellinger: we are gona build huge AI chips, and everything we touch will be filled by AI capabilities. We got 10 great year ahead of us with all the factories we are...
The Inflation reduction act had billions for building chip plants in the U.S. https://www.z2data.com/insights/new-...america-europe
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,595
  • Jan 17, 2024 7:44pm Jan 17, 2024 7:44pm
CAD long triggered 3495.. 10 stop tp whenever
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,596
  • Jan 17, 2024 7:58pm Jan 17, 2024 7:58pm
I may have made a donation.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,597
  • Jan 17, 2024 8:21pm Jan 17, 2024 8:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
I may have made a donation. {image}
yep, a donation
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,598
  • Jan 17, 2024 8:26pm Jan 17, 2024 8:26pm
Quoting Ferna
long 0868
Locking it in the 90s.. oil could continue.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,599
  • Jan 17, 2024 8:50pm Jan 17, 2024 8:50pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Locking it in the 90s.. oil could continue.
Oil versus usd has a double edge. Not always, but sometimes the higher dollar pushes oil down. this was less true prior to 2009. Now the U.S. produces more oil. A rise in oil prices. Is not always usd negative.
Higher oil/energy prices hurt those who import more. That often gets into a weaker currency value for importers. Its relative to the amount imported. Japan does worse with high oil. Canada often does better
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,600
  • Jan 18, 2024 2:02am Jan 18, 2024 2:02am
EU pa got about 30 pips above 0874x. Its above the 6h 200.. If it make it back below 0874 support. It may fall more. I would like Friday to close below. If i want to continue with shorts. Above 0875 close Friday will increase rise odds.6h at 0886.5 atm.
Yesterday several usd crosses were weaker including the Cad. Most didnt go too far past those benchmarks. They can be retested, the can be crossed.
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