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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #7,561
  • Jan 16, 2024 10:23am Jan 16, 2024 10:23am
Long in GBPJPY

I admit that I wasn't anticipating that the MMs would lower the price again to (probably) meet more longs, so I had to wait a little longer than initially expected
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  • #7,562
  • Jan 16, 2024 12:28pm Jan 16, 2024 12:28pm
EURGBP

Still in that 25-30ish pips range. More activity below the whole level than above it, so retains bullish "promise". Maybe GBP gets truly wacked on one or both of these upcoming high impact releases. Could happen, and such that RWH might actually be the MMs goal for the week. Alas, we cannot ever know how the MMs will be moving price, but the trends are now converged and higher than at this time yesterday........
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  • #7,563
  • Jan 16, 2024 10:43pm Jan 16, 2024 10:43pm
EURGBP

Today the AS HOD is moving past AS HOD for previous day. Trends remain stacked and angled bullish......even a bit higher than yesterday at the same time. Less than 2.5 hours until the GBP high impact release. Lets see what happens.
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  • #7,564
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 17, 2024 3:32am | Edited 9:21am
XAUUSD SHORT SCALPS

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PVSRA
  • #7,565
  • Jan 17, 2024 12:32pm Jan 17, 2024 12:32pm
USDCAD, M15
Re-accumulation or Distribution...!
A High Activity above 1.35 than below. With every volume, price drops, indicating the bears orders are coming.
Let us see...!
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(I am just trying to understand this methodology, feel free to comment/discuss on it)

Regards
Ahmad Hassan
  • #7,566
  • Edited 1:27am Jan 18, 2024 12:47am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting RedEagle
USDCAD, M15 Re-accumulation or Distribution...! A High Activity above 1.35 than below. With every volume, price drops, indicating the bears orders are coming. Let us see...! {image} (I am just trying to understand this methodology, feel free to comment/discuss on it) Regards
USDCAD comment:
On chart you posted the trends are still stacked up and very clearly too. The smaller activity before LS is normal and then in NY session higher it does not have to mean it will retrace down significantly. It is always better MMs show their hand first and then you follow- meaning when you do have Lower High then you search for clues on retrace back up. Higher volume needs SR confirmation.

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PVSRA
  • #7,567
  • Edited 4:05am Jan 18, 2024 3:49am | Edited 4:05am
XAUUSD LONG SCALPS

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PVSRA
  • #7,568
  • Jan 18, 2024 4:10am Jan 18, 2024 4:10am
EURGBP

The "Bullish Promise" is improving. On attached chart the FO to HK Close period has good activity and moreover shows the MMs manipulated the price both down and back up, going "lower" rather than "higher" to fill orders. So, "Buy low, sell high" would indicate all this action today is in behalf of filling SM buy orders. Nevertheless, the remaining high impact release is not until tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, such antics might continue. The NYS today might also see some order filling in this "Drop & Pop" LOD area.......
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  • #7,569
  • Jan 18, 2024 9:48am Jan 18, 2024 9:48am
Good News!

Home Site for PVSRA is back online! At this time, there is no information regarding the outage other than the server was online but not responding.

As a reminder to all who would register there, please read and follow the Registration Instructions........exactly! They are the subject of the very first topic at the top of the very first page of the site. A person cannot miss them unless they are trying to, and the minor effort they entail.
  • #7,570
  • Jan 18, 2024 10:52am Jan 18, 2024 10:52am
EURGBP

The last high impact release this week affecting this is the GBP release tomorrow at the time of the FO. So far this week the MMs have ended up lowering support and ranging it more. The H4 chart is ominous, or fortuitous (depending on your current involvement, if any).

This H4 chart shows PA being pressed lower, to nearby prices that would have this become a Double Bottom. Would the MMs miss the chance to create a Double Bottom, now that they have pressed PA down so close?

But, look lower. RWL and RML are not that much further below! Now, if this week of PA episodes that seemed to suggest ACCUMULATION has been correct and with this continued price decline by the MMs, then at this point we best consider SM probably also has buy orders down there; around RDL and even below the half level there!

So, possibly a Double Bottom or even lower, before a bullish run for SM profits on their buy orders........which might be delayed until next week. This is why we say that in spite of everything and anything, we simply cannot ever KNOW how the MMs will move price next! This is the unambiguous SOLE TRUTH about the markets.
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  • #7,571
  • Jan 18, 2024 11:25am Jan 18, 2024 11:25am
EURAUD

Of many items, this one shows very nice indeed for a "sell" trade now. MMs might run price back up somewhat in After Hours trading, and/or tomorrow, before a true downwards breakout, which might end up below the 1.6475 3/4 Level, perhaps in the 1.646xx area. We cannot ever know. But this is now a beautifully bearish looking item! As always, please, do your own due diligence. Thank you.
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  • #7,572
  • Jan 18, 2024 7:59pm Jan 18, 2024 7:59pm
Long in EURUSD, the price was previously oversold below the Whole Level and the apparent range, so I decided to go long believing that the price would probably break the range again, due to this I ended up suffering pressure with the price drop soon after

unfortunately as We are human and we are still liable to make mistakes in this negotiation, although I ended up with a profit, I paid for my lack of patience at that moment to wait for a suitable configuration to emerge.
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  • #7,573
  • Jan 18, 2024 9:17pm Jan 18, 2024 9:17pm
Quoting JhonNezuko7
Long in EURUSD, the price was previously oversold below the Whole Level and the apparent range, so I decided to go long believing that the price would probably break the range again, due to this I ended up suffering pressure with the price drop soon after unfortunately as We are human and we are still liable to make mistakes in this negotiation, although I ended up with a profit, I paid for my lack of patience at that moment to wait for a suitable configuration to emerge. {image} {image}
Regarding volume, please allow me to be skeptical. Since the VSA theory has already become a globally recognized analysis method and has long been written and published in books, MM must also know that traders will use this method to analyze market. Will they create illusions in important positions that retail traders pay attention to, such as high-frequency buying and selling, to generate higher volume data for traders to see, in order to deceive them into entering trades?
I see a lot of trading screenshots in this post, and most of them are left-side trades. In my understanding, this is just guessing, not what you call art. Because you also said, 'we don't know how MM will manipulate prices next'. Instead of risking to guess the tops and bottoms, why not just simply trade in the direction of Dragon?
  • #7,574
  • Jan 18, 2024 11:08pm Jan 18, 2024 11:08pm
Quoting JhonNezuko7
Long in EURUSD, the price was previously oversold below the Whole Level and the apparent range, so I decided to go long believing that the price would probably break the range again, due to this I ended up suffering pressure with the price drop soon after unfortunately as We are human and we are still liable to make mistakes in this negotiation, although I ended up with a profit, I paid for my lack of patience at that moment to wait for a suitable configuration to emerge. {image} {image}
And this is precisely why we must ALWAYS trade very light relative to the account equity! It enables us to skip hard SL usage, wait out the contrary move, then add to trade, and end up even more profitale.....usually. However, at times the contrary move will persist after we add, in which case we can look for the opportunity to close the entire increased trade at increased loss (yes, it happens), or we can stop trading and sit on hands for whatever time it takes for PA to come back to us for profit. That amount of time can sometimes be counted in weeks of lost trading. Each one of us needs to understand these unpleasant things and eventually find our own niche we are comfortable with. This trade was handled well. Congratulations!
  • #7,575
  • Edited Jan 19, 2024 12:37am Jan 18, 2024 11:31pm | Edited Jan 19, 2024 12:37am
Quoting zouleisheng
{quote} Regarding volume, please allow me to be skeptical. Since the VSA theory has already become a globally recognized analysis method and has long been written and published in books, MM must also know that traders will use this method to analyze market. Will they create illusions in important positions that retail traders pay attention to, such as high-frequency buying and selling, to generate higher volume data for traders to see, in order to deceive them into entering trades? I see a lot of trading screenshots in this post, and most of them...
First of all, WE ARE NOT "VSA". We are PVSRA. Secondly, WE DO TRADE THE DRAGON DIRECTION! And we use leading PVSRA incidents to help us decide if they do support the trade, or if there are signs of conflict........because we know that at any time the MMs can move price contrary to the way things currently appear. Above all, PVSRA is not something that can be learned from a PDF. Skill with PVSRA comes only with lots of screen time. It is an experiential knowledge skill set that develops in the same way a chlld learns to do jigsaw puzzles. It is NOT from a book. It is from DOING! This is how we truly learn HTMRW.

Be skeptical all you wish. But, you might consider the appropriateness of being skeptical about something that admittedly can take quite some time, when you have only just glanced at it occasionally over the past 6 years.

- Tah
  • #7,576
  • Jan 18, 2024 11:52pm Jan 18, 2024 11:52pm
Quoting zouleisheng
{quote} Since the VSA theory has already become a globally recognized analysis method and has long been written and published in books, MM must also know that traders will use this method to analyze market.
I don't mean to be disrespectful, but I'm not sure you understand the concepts behind volume nor the laws of supply and demand.

A large flaw in your logic is that you seem to be assuming there is an infinite number of lots that are available to be traded at any given price. Price moves on supply and demand, if you want price to go up you have to eliminate all supply at the current price level. What that means is there is only a limited number of share/lots available to be traded. Those traders at big banks, like Goldman, who are trading 100s of million or even billions of dollars just can't instantly fill their position.. It take days, weeks even months to fill it. Retail traders, HFT, and even some so called "funds" are just small drops in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.

Sure MM could use HFT to pump up the volume in certain areas to mislead, but if you're trading 100s of millions of dollars do you really have the time/energy/resources to mislead traders? Whom a very large percentage of have less than 3k in their account.

Basically the only people in the world of trading who gives a shit about retail traders the brokers and educators and "account managers"

Quoting zouleisheng
{quote} I see a lot of trading screenshots in this post, and most of them are left-side trades.
Do you now know why you're seeing a lot of left traders? Hopefully you said Supply and Demand.

If you want to move price up, you have to eliminate all supply. Each time price comes down an area with significant volume, large players are trying to absorb any supply. Once that supply has been completely removed it allow for price to move up and begin the trending phase.

Yes you should wait till the trending phase, but depending on the market conditions you could be waiting weeks for that trend to establish.

Quoting zouleisheng
{quote} Because you also said, 'we don't know how MM will manipulate prices next'. Instead of risking to guess the tops and bottoms, why not just simply trade in the direction of Dragon?
Maybe I'm wrong, but I sense a lot of frustration in your posts. Might be a good idea to step back and take a break, markets will always be here. Come back when you get yourself into a mind set of 'we don't know how MM will manipulate prices next'. Come back when this phrase makes more sense.. You can understand that markets aren't perfect, even MM get things wrong and price gets away from them, come back when you can understand you can make very nice money without being a perfect trader, or even a trader with less than a 60% win rate.

Unfortunately the real world between school, work and whatever else tells us we are failures with a 60% success rate. That lesson is something every trader has to unlearn.
  • #7,577
  • Jan 19, 2024 12:52am Jan 19, 2024 12:52am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I don't mean to be disrespectful, but I'm not sure you understand the concepts behind volume nor the laws of supply and demand. A large flaw in your logic is that you seem to be assuming there is an infinite number of lots that are available to be traded at any given price. Price moves on supply and demand, if you want price to go up you have to eliminate all supply at the current price level. What that means is there is only a limited number of share/lots available to be traded. Those traders at big banks, like Goldman, who are trading...
OK, first of all, I respect all your views on PVSRA. After all, we traders are on a united front to resist the plundering of MMs. Here, I just want to express my doubts about the PVSRA analysis method because I have been learning this method for seven or eight years, probably since 2014. I have watched countless videos and followed discussions. I admit that trading is a skill that takes time to develop, unlike learning mathematical formulas, which can be quickly grasped and guaranteed to be absolutely effective. I must acknowledge this.
I have looked at Fisher755's historical trading records, and many trades resulted in significant losses. I don't understand why such a veteran trader would hold onto losing positions for so long. He is considered quite proficient in PVSRA. How can this be explained?
Of course, I'm not targeting Fisher755，I'm just using his historical trading records to raise a question. I've seen many other traders' screenshots on this thread where they entered the market too early, resulting in holding losing positions for a long time before finally closing at a small loss or a small profit. Yes, a small profit due to sheer luck. If the market develops a strong one-sided trend, there may not be such an opportunity. Perhaps losing trades are not posted for us to see. These are the confusions I have encountered in my studies over the past few years.
The above sentences were translated by a computer into English. English is not my native language, and I hope you can understand these statements.
  • #7,578
  • Jan 19, 2024 1:35am Jan 19, 2024 1:35am
EURAUD SHORT TRADE in PROGRESS
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  • #7,579
  • Jan 19, 2024 2:21am Jan 19, 2024 2:21am
Quoting traderathome
EURAUD SHORT TRADE in PROGRESS {image}
What's next for GBPUSD, please comment
  • #7,580
  • Jan 19, 2024 2:37am Jan 19, 2024 2:37am
Quoting zouleisheng
{quote} OK, first of all, I respect all your views on PVSRA...
Let me say that I am a VSA trader, I know very little about PVSRA except for the volume aspects.

Your post sounds like you want me to defend PVSRA, which its not my place to do. If you want to talk VSA, well I can do that for hours. As far as Fisher755, I have no idea who that is, but it sounds like the trader has no concept of trade management. Which to be honest when was the last time you visited a thread or watched a YouTube video where the presenter talked about how to exit a trade as much as they talked about how to enter a trade?

Its not really a surprise that he has significant losses when people just don't talk about trade management and people are terrified of posting a bad trade. The truth is, we all make mistakes and we all take bad trades. How you handle those trades really says more about you as a trader than your winning trades. After all even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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