Turtle Soup Enthusiast

Looking for Dollar to bounce here a bit. Looking for a Monthly PO3 low.

This worked out nicely. First week of profitability in about a month. Been tough recently- been getting my dollar ideas wrong. But the monthly PO3 at a key level worked out well. Up 12R for this week and minimised risk so not much made. It’s all about staying confident and strong through tough times. Thoughts for this coming month tomorrow.

Gold thoughts for tomorrow.

Came out good.

First sniper entry in a minute

Gold thoughts for london tomorrow. Doesn’t have to do that but if we got up there I’d be open to this.

Euro/Canadian Dollar

ECAD UPDATE. Looking better again but I believe there is still room for it to push down in the next month and then we rally. If we do or don't, my positions still stand.

End of 2023 and that marks the end of my first trading year. Been a rollercoaster and crazy how quick the times went and how fast I've developed. Last year on this day today is exactly when I decided to start learning and to be here now with the knowledge I now hold is development which I wasn't even sure I could've made. I feel that I have all the tools I need to go and make this work this year. Last few months of this year, the markets were quite tricky to trade but we need tricky times to develop. 2024 we slaughter these markets.

I will make sure to often post my thoughts on the markets and the positions I have taken on my trading journal/ thread here for anyone to see. My aim is to build a very good track record with good accuracy on here for many people to see. However there will be some days an even weeks where I wont post. This is because if I don't see any good things on the higher time frame on the charts I stay out of the lower time frame. I never trade without the higher time frame bias and narrative. I prefer it this way for accuracy and my young age means that I am always busy with school etc. However when the higher time frame comes together I will drop onto the lower time frames for intraday trades and if I can and have the time I'll post trades and intraday thoughts here.

Posting thoughts on multiple markets here very soon. Good luck to everyone this year, I wish you the best.

Firstly, Dollar thoughts.

I believe this new 12 Month FVG we have just printed is going to be the draw on liquidity for the first few months of 2024. This coupled with the range we broke out of a year ago with no closes above this range with only wicks indicates retracement or reversal to the down side. We also respected the 50% of the 12 month Order block, which is a good thing if we are respecting premium arrays. Therefore my HTF draw on liquidity is this 12 Month FVG going into 2024.

Now onto the monthly. We see after hitting the 12 Month Order block wee violently retraced and formed this monthly FVG. We broke above an old monthly high and into this key level and started trading lower and reacted beautifully from here. On this monthly chart, we can also see we created a 3 Bar Reversal pattern, which is often very accurate ONLY WHEN LOGIC IS CONSIDERED. All patterns work when there is clear logic. This is good, as this is perfect for a reversal.

Also, on the monthly chart we respected the bearish Monthly FVG and disrespected the bullish Monthly FVG. This is bearish order flow and now we can expect this to be continued. Premium arrays respected while discount arrays are disrespected. As we disrespected the bullish Monthly FVG (which is now considered as an inverse FVG), we just printed a bearish Monthly FVG. This zone where both the FVG and the IFVG meet is known as a balanced price range and will be a very reactive area.

This 3 Bar Reversal at a key level has disrespected a discount array and printed a premium array now. With 3 Bar Reversals, the entry comes at the OTE pullback on it to then go back lower. This OTE pullback would be into the Monthly FVG and IFVG.

This will be an area where I will be looking to Long foreign currencies against the Dollar. That was the technical side, however you always need the fundamental side. Obviously we don't know what the FED is going to do with interest rates, but we can have a rough idea. I'm hearing calls of 150 basis point cuts within the next 15 months but who knows. The markets clearly believe that with how the Dollar is selling off lol. However the ones I am keeping a close eye on is the seasonal tendencies for the months we are trading, COT Reports and Open Interest. These will all help for the confluence of my Bearish Dollar thesis.

Draw on liquidity- Yearly lows (99.600)
Potential Entry- Monthly FVG , OTE.
Invalidation- The highs at 107.400

One key note is that we DONT HAVE TO RETURN TO THE MONTHLY FVG. Price can just sell off into the draw on liquidity. The Monthly FVG and 3 Bar Reversal OTE point would just be a nice point to sell from. However, I am going to keep a close eye on the Dollar and if I start to see it make lower prices with little probability of reaching the Monthly FVG, I will look for longs on foreign currencies before the Monthly FVG on the Dollar.

Another thing that I am keeping a close eye on is SMT between the Dollar and currencies like Euro and the British Pound. One may fill in the Monthly FVG while the other doesn't and this is a key thing to watch, as if we don't keep an eye on it we could miss our entry.

This was a long post and don't expect these all the time, but I did it, as its the start of the new year and my thoughts for the fist few months of 2024, so it needed to be long and in depth. This is just me writing in my journal; essentially, but I hope if anyone sees this it helps them and gives them good ideas.

Euro/Canadian Dollar review

Starting on the Monthly, wee see price is bullish and in an up trend, which means we are in bullish order flow. This means that we expect discount arrays to bee respected and premium arrays to be disrespected. Here we see a range formed and we break below into a Monthly FVG rejecting off the 50% of it.

On the weekly time frame we see price rejected after purging the low of the range, we expect the high of the range to be the draw on liquidity now. Range low-range high. We nearly took it but pulled back before. This is now an OTE entry with Weekly FVG's there to support price. We could begin to trade higher from here and that would be good, but I am open to price taking one more dive into the lows in Week 2 of this month to complete the monthly AMD profile.

I already expect a bullish Euro and this trade supports it.

Gold Review-

This is not one that I am 100% sure abut, however I certainly see this as a possibility for the price of Gold. After breaking above this Weekly Range and producing all time highs we see a Weekly rejection block form as we start trading down. I see 3 possibilities. We reject here and begin to make our way down to the range low from this rejection block, or we take the highs out again before trading to the range low. And the final possibility for me is that we just keep trading higher with no reversal.

Taking out the highs again would be a classic form of taking old liquidity (months old highs) and turning it into new liquidity (daily highs).

I am not trading it here as I am not certain, but I certainly see it as a possibility. I will start trading it if we start t make lower prices with one of the scenarios occurring.

Is there a case to be be made for a liquidity purge (not a sweep) above triple monthly equal highs?
Get the break out traders long, then reverse. Take out all the stops on those that have sold from previous monthly highs.
Looks like a rejection block at HTF old highs on the weekly.
From a fundamental standpoint gold has always been a hedge against inflation.
With inflation falling around the world it may lose it's allure.

Expecting these downside targets to be hit on Euro/Japanese Yen throughout the rest of this month. Invalidation at week 2 highs of the month

Im not an ICT trader so make of this what you will

Yeah, the yearly quarterly cycle. I'm not really too interested in it as I mainly just try to trade the Po3 of a monthly candle, but it is useful sometimes.

Looking for this to happen on the Kiwi. Capping the Monthly candle Po3 at a key level (Monthly FVG) at a key time (end of month, known to cap the Monthly candle Po3) while combining it with a range (our pre-manipulation liquidity pool)

Invalidated last week. Losses are a part of the game. Can't get everything right.