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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,381
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:37am Jun 20, 2007 3:37am
Quoting DutchTrader
5/4 to hold?
Yes with expected 7/2 to hold, that definitely means that there will be a rate hike on the next meeting
  • #6,382
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:39am Jun 20, 2007 3:39am
So if I were to say GBPJPY to 250? Or 247?
  • #6,383
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:39am Jun 20, 2007 3:39am
Was the rate hike valued into it?
  • #6,384
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:40am Jun 20, 2007 3:40am
Quoting keramikus
So if I were to say GBPJPY to 250? Or 247?
except if there is pressure on the Japanese gov't to increase the yen value, or a bubble burst on the chinese stock market 250 is a minimum figure
  • #6,385
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:42am Jun 20, 2007 3:42am
Quoting melpheos
except if there is pressure on the Japanese gov't to increase the yen value, or a bubble burst on the chinese stock market 250 is a minimum figure
Yes, I think we live/trade in the most interesting period of Forex time. Can`t help to love this big numbers.
  • #6,386
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:49am Jun 20, 2007 3:49am
Quoting yezbick
Was the rate hike valued into it?
The only figure showing was for a .25 rate hike according to the minutes
  • #6,387
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:51am Jun 20, 2007 3:51am
Quoting keramikus
Yes, I think we live/trade in the most interesting period of Forex time. Can`t help to love this big numbers.

I don't know if this is the most interesting period of Forex, but this night has been very funny je je je
Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.
  • #6,388
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:57am Jun 20, 2007 3:57am
hold on I dont understand these meeting numbers... There will be a hike in the interest rates??? if so are we expecting GJ to go higher?
  • #6,389
  • Jun 20, 2007 3:59am Jun 20, 2007 3:59am
Quoting Alfa159
hold on I dont understand these meeting numbers... There will be a hike in the interest rates??? if so are we expecting GJ to go higher?
This is a stepped approach of BoE to deviate from dove stance towards interest rate and it means hals of votes is in favor of raising interest level.
  • #6,390
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:01am Jun 20, 2007 4:01am
Quoting Alfa159
hold on I dont understand these meeting numbers... There will be a hike in the interest rates??? if so are we expecting GJ to go higher?
The market was expecting the decision to hold was 7-2 meaning 2 members voted for a hike, it came out as 5-4 which means 4 voted for a hike. This means that most probably a hike will occur next month, which sent cable higher which of course, took GBP/JPY higher. I fully expect 248 to be breached in the coming days.
Period : 26 Months Account Balance : +264% Max DD : 14.2%
  • #6,391
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:03am Jun 20, 2007 4:03am
Quoting keramikus
This is a stepped approach of BoE to deviate from dove stance towards interest rate and it means hals of votes is in favor of raising interest level.

hmm than we shouldnt expect high momentum of GBP getting valued... it did change a lot right after and before the news but looks like it will settle
i am long in GJ at 245.60

was hoping for mid 246.00s since it broke the 245.50 level, but i guess i was mistaken.
  • #6,392
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:05am Jun 20, 2007 4:05am
these things take time. It is much more likely (in my opinion) that we will see 246 before we revisit 245
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #6,393
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:10am Jun 20, 2007 4:10am
also wondering if we see a raise in GJ will this help EJ to raise as well? or go down? because GBP is getting value over EURO
  • #6,394
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:13am Jun 20, 2007 4:13am
Quoting Alfa159
also wondering if we see a raise in GJ will this help EJ to raise as well? or go down? because GBP is getting value over EURO
It should normally but it's not a 100% rule...
  • #6,395
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:37am Jun 20, 2007 4:37am
Quoting Gmak
patiently building longs from 238 onwards (every 100) and convinced the MPC minutes were going to push this thing a little further north, that last spike managed to perfectly cream my obviously misplaced stops to the exact goddam pip.

Damn.
I placed my stops at 244.68 and it went down to 244.68 to close my longs. Then it proceed long for 100 pips. Should have left my stop at 244.60 :surprised

My longs started at 240.44

Next time no stops when in my long until the news. Long again from 245.40 now. You win some you loose some, but the learning curve is frustrating.
  • #6,396
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:46am Jun 20, 2007 4:46am
We had the Minutes from UK this morning. Very unwise in my opinion to enter GBP trades before the news.
  • #6,397
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:49am Jun 20, 2007 4:49am
Quoting yezbick
I placed my stops at 244.68 and it went down to 244.68 to close my longs. Then it proceed long for 100 pips. Should have left my stop at 244.60 :surprised

My longs started at 240.44

Next time no stops when in my long until the news. Long again from 245.40 now. You win some you loose some, but the learning curve is frustrating.
that's why i never place stops when i can watch the charts constantly. I prefer to loose a bit more and see the reversal rather than being stopped out without any reversal
  • #6,398
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:52am Jun 20, 2007 4:52am
Quoting melpheos
that's why i never place stops when i can watch the charts constantly. I prefer to loose a bit more and see the reversal rather than being stopped out without any reversal
Agreed. I'd rather watch the action and provide my own human stop/loss
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,399
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:53am Jun 20, 2007 4:53am
Quoting yezbick
I placed my stops at 244.68 and it went down to 244.68 to close my longs. Then it proceed long for 100 pips. Should have left my stop at 244.60 :surprised

My longs started at 240.44

Next time no stops when in my long until the news. Long again from 245.40 now. You win some you loose some, but the learning curve is frustrating.

Everyone's guaranteed further opportunities and at least the balance sheet shows a fat profit.

Still glad the stops were there, if the minutes had come 9-0 we'd be sitting on a different story.

Mind boggling frustration though. (still have 1 long open at 245, closed my short cover at 245.5)
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #6,400
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:59am Jun 20, 2007 4:59am
Quoting melpheos
that's why i never place stops when i can watch the charts constantly. I prefer to loose a bit more and see the reversal rather than being stopped out without any reversal

you have to draw your line in the sand somewhere though and I don't trust my own emotions enough to make the correct call when in the thick of it.

Galling though it is to see your stops hit to the pip, it has to happen at some stage and more often than not my solid stops help more than hinder me.

In hindsight I could have put a stop run under consideration, however I have no knowledge of when such things will occur and what looks like a stop run may well be the harbinger of impending doom.
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
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