Free Market Updates by Solidecn.com

Swiss Franc Falls from 12-Year High

Solid ECN – The Swiss franc dropped to 0.85 against the US dollar, down from a 12-year peak of 0.841. The DXY's recovery influenced this change. Last year, the franc gained 8.5% versus the dollar, reflecting differing interest rate policies of the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve. The Fed's latest meeting hinted at a cautious approach, further affected by US inflation slowing down.

Despite this, the Swiss National Bank sees reasons for higher rates due to potential inflation increases. Currently, inflation in Switzerland is at 1.4%, but predictions show it might reach the 2% goal in mid-2024. This has led investors to believe that the Swiss National Bank will cut rates later than the Fed. Additionally, the franc reached a new high against the Euro, reflecting ongoing high rate expectations from the Swiss National Bank.

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USDCHF Navigates Between Bullish Channel


Solid ECN – The bull's effort to flip the price above the Ichimoku cloud continues. However, the ADX indicator hovers below the 20 level, which can be interpreted as a weak market trend. The USDCHF price should stabilize itself above the %38.2 Fibonacci level for the uptick bias to continue. If this happens, the price would rise to test the %50 level of the Fibonacci resistance as its initial target.

Conversely, the bullish scenario should be invalid if the USDCHF price exceeds the bullish channel. In this case, the downfall would extend to December 2023's low.

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Euro Stabilizes Amid Eurozone Inflation and Strong US Job Market

Solid ECN - The euro maintained a steady value near $1.09. This happened as market players absorbed new information. The Eurozone showed an increase in its inflation rate. At the same time, the US job market was doing well. These developments reduced the need for the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

In December, the Euro Area saw its inflation rate go up to 2.9%. This was just below the expected 3%. The main reason for this increase was the cost of energy. The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, also slowed down. It reached 3.4%, the lowest since March 2022.

In the US, the job scene was positive. There were 216,000 new jobs added last month. This was more than the expected 170,000. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 3.7%. However, there was a slight dip in the activity rate. It fell to 62.5%, the lowest since February.

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Pound Steadiness, Consumer Borrowing Spike, and House Price Rise

Solid ECN - The UK's pound currency remained stable at $1.27. This stability came as market players analyzed new economic figures and their effect on global financial policies. A recent report from the US showed an unexpected jump in job creation, suggesting the Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates soon, possibly not even in March. Meanwhile, UK consumer borrowing saw a significant boost, with an increase of £2.0 billion - the most since March 2017 and higher than the £1.4 billion predicted.

Additionally, the number of loans for buying homes in the UK was higher than expected, reaching 50.1K. In other news, Britain's service sector grew stronger in December than initially thought, and the mood among businesses was the most optimistic in seven months. Finally, UK house prices increased by 1.7% compared to last year, the first rise in nine months.

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Australian Dollar Rises Amid Cooling Inflation Solid ECN – The Australian dollar climbed to nearly $0.67, recovering from its four-week low. This rise occurred despite new data indicating a slowdown in inflation. In November, Australia's CPI grew by 4.3% compared to last year, less than October's 4.9% increase and the smallest since January 2022. The figure was also lower than the anticipated 4.4%.

Given the services sector's robustness, this suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia might not raise interest rates. The market doesn't expect the central bank to increase rates beyond the existing 4.35%. Also, the likelihood of a rate cut in May has decreased to about 36%.

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New Zealand Dollar Balances as Rate Cut Expectations Grow

The New Zealand dollar has stabilized at $0.624 after recent ups and downs. This comes as the US dollar weakens, with many expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year. US consumer inflation expectations for the short term hit a near three-year low in December, hinting at a softer approach to monetary policy.


In New Zealand, markets anticipate four rate cuts from their central bank this year, possibly starting in May. The central bank's head noted the unexpected slowdown in growth, increasing chances of an earlier rate cut. In November, New Zealand's cash rate remained at 5.5%, narrowly avoiding a hike.

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GBPUSD Tests Ichimoku Cloud, Eyes Rise

The GBPUSD currency pair has tested the Ichimoku cloud in today’s trading session. The pair is currency trading at 1.2721 while the awesome oscillator bars turned green. The RSI indicator stayed above 50, another signal for the bullish trend’s resumption.

If the bulls can maintain the price above the cloud, the price will likely rise. But the first hurdle is 1.2776. Should this level be breached, the following target can be 1.2826.

The bullish scenario is invalid if the bears close below the cloud. In this case, the lower band of the bullish flag would be the next resistance.

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USDJPY Above Ichimoku Cloud, Bulls Eye Gain

The USDJPY currency pair trades above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a bullish trend. Various technical indicators further support this positive outlook. The ADX line, an indicator of trend strength, is above 40, indicating a solid upward trend. The awesome oscillator bars are green, and the RSI indicator is positioned above its median line, aligning with the bullish sentiment.

Bullish traders in the USDJPY market are likely setting their sights on the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level—the lower band of the bullish flag and the Ichimoku cloud support this bullish scenario. The bullish trend remains valid and intact as long as the currency pair maintains its position above the cloud.

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Gold: Bearish Channel and Fibonacci

Solid ECN – The XAUUSD currently ranges between 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. Interestingly, the Average Directional Index (ADX) lines hover below the 20 level, indicating market uncertainty. Despite this, gold continues to trade within the bearish channel. As a result, we can consider the current market trend as bearish.

Given this outlook, we might expect the bears to exert more pressure. This could lead to a continued decline towards the lower band of the bearish flag. However, this scenario would be invalidated if the gold price closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.

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EURUSD Bullish Trend Analysis and Fibonacci Resistance Levels

Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair has crossed above the bearish flag and is now testing the Ichimoku cloud. The ADX green line has crossed above the 20 level, signaling the emergence of a bullish trend. If the EURUSD remains above the blue trendline, the next target could be the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.

The 50% Fibonacci level supports the bullish scenario. The uptrend analysis should be invalidated if the price declines below this resistance level.

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USDCNH Tests Support; Bulls vs. Bears in Market Tug

Solid ECN – The USDCNH pair is testing the 7.1631 support level on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is gradually stepping outside the oversold area, signaling a potential change in momentum. If the bulls maintain the price above this support, we can reasonably expect the USDCNH price to experience a new bullish wave.

Consequently, the market might surge to the 7.1898 area in such a scenario.

On the flip side, should the bears successfully breach the support, the decline would likely extend to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.

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Gold Dips as Dollar Rises on US Data

Solid ECN – Gold's price fell to under $2,030 per ounce on Thursday. This drop happened as the US dollar got more robust. Good US economic news reduced expectations for more accessible money policies in March. Inflation rates were higher than expected. Yearly inflation increased to 3.4% in December, up from 3.1% in November. Also, fewer people filed for unemployment last week than expected. Only 202,000 filed, less than the 210,000 predicted. This shows the job market is still strong.

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AUDUSD Analysis

Solid ECN – In the 4-hour chart, the AUDUSD currency pair oscillates within a downward channel. The RSI indicator is below 50, suggesting the downward trend may persist. If the downward channel remains intact, we could see a further decrease in the currency pair, potentially reaching the channel's lower boundary.

However, there's a chance for an upward breakout from the downward flag, as indicated by the divergence in the awesome oscillator. This divergence could signal a potential trend shift. Nevertheless, as long as the AUDUSD price remains within the flag, the downward technical analysis remains applicable.

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GBPUSD Analysis

Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair trades within the bullish flag's lines, while the awesome oscillator indicator signals divergence in the daily chart.

The resistance that stopped the price from rising further is the 1.2827 mark. If the divergence signal comes into play, we can expect the GBPUSD price to fall and initially target the 38.2% Fibonacci support—the lower band of the envelopes indicator and the Ichimoku cloud further back up this support level.

Conversely, the bulls must break above the 1.2827 resistance for the uptrend to continue.

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USDCHF: Switzerland's Inflation and Monetary Strategies

Solid ECN – The Swiss franc has been stable since the beginning of the year, hovering around 0.85 against the US dollar. This stability is close to its 12-year peak of 0.83, achieved on December 29th. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has implemented various support measures, leading to this steadiness. Market analysts believe the SNB might maintain its strict monetary policy for an extended time.

In December, Switzerland experienced an unexpected rise in inflation, reaching 1.7%. This rate is still within the SNB's expected range. However, it exceeded what many experts had predicted. This increase mirrors the inflation trends in countries using the Euro, Switzerland's primary trading partners. As a result, the SNB might need to raise interest rates. This move would support the Swiss franc and reduce the impact of imported inflation.

Contrasting with Switzerland's approach, there's growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. The SNB's strategy also includes selling foreign exchange. Recent data revealed that their reserves dropped to the lowest level in over seven years.

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Indian Bond Yields Hit 4-Month Low: A Closer Look.

Solid ECN – In January, something notable happened in India's financial market. The yield on the 10-year Indian government bond dropped to 7.15%. This was its lowest point in almost four months. What caused this decline? A mix of positive economic trends and encouraging corporate news played a significant role.

First, let's look at the broader picture. Indian government securities (G-Secs) with a one-year maturity period saw a significant boost. This happened when Bloomberg suggested adding Indian bonds to its index for emerging market local currencies. JPMorgan had already taken a similar step by including Indian bonds in its emerging market debt index. These inclusions are crucial. They make foreign investors more interested in Indian sovereign bonds. When foreign demand goes up, bond yields typically go down.

Now, let's dive into the details. Core inflation is a crucial indicator of economic health. In December, reports from private banks revealed a substantial slowdown in core inflation. This slowdown sparked optimism. Many started anticipating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might cut interest rates within the year. It's important to note that overall headline inflation, as the official statistics office reported, had increased.

Despite this mixed inflation scenario, the RBI seems set to maintain its current policy stance. It's likely to continue the 'Withdrawal of Accommodation' policy in the upcoming meetings. This policy involves gradually reducing monetary support to the economy. While this move might limit the upswing in bond prices, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

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