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The Swamp

  • #114,081
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:01am Jan 2, 2024 10:01am
Quoting supertubes
{quote} I still have some of my short from 1137. sl now at 0995 .
Closed it 044. and long with a tight sl
  • #114,082
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:03am Jan 2, 2024 10:03am
Quoting supertubes
{quote} I want to short the S/P .. but not just yet.
Maybe I missed my opportunity....wanted to s target 4600
  • #114,083
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:11am Jan 2, 2024 10:11am
Quoting gatorinla
I may regret not taking the long with a s/l at 0939. Maybe i will at 0942. Close if 0940.0 is touched
added a 15.0 trailing stop. with the original. near b.e. now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,084
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:20am Jan 2, 2024 10:20am
In the green with the s/l. I will close if i need to.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,085
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:24am Jan 2, 2024 10:24am
Quoting supertubes
{quote} Closed it 044. and long with a tight sl
sl at be
im gonna go walk the doggo
  • #114,086
  • Jan 2, 2024 10:58am Jan 2, 2024 10:58am
stopped. Placed another pending. If it touches 0940.0. It may give a weakness sign. Although it may still bounce 0935ish.
Later
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,087
  • Jan 2, 2024 1:20pm Jan 2, 2024 1:20pm
long 0945
  • #114,088
  • Jan 2, 2024 2:20pm Jan 2, 2024 2:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since you trade energy. Keep an eye on the Polar Vortex. It may be weakening. That could make Europe and the U.S. colder. Winter has been mild so far. That may change with a weaker Polar Vortex. It will be harder to keep the cold North. So the next few months may get less mild. Imported NG prices in Europe may be forced higher. Imported from the U.S. may help the USD versus energy importers. The mild winter was better for the Eur/USD to rise. The opposite can be true on a energy rise.
where did you get this info? I’m a bit interested.
Somebody just called me and said it’s gona be -25 c next week. I think it will shoot up the energy prices.
Also we had heavy snowfall which made some trees fall on powerlines all over the country, it could worsen.

It was -10 c here already in November, we are pretty close to the sea so we can get pretty mild winters some years.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,089
  • Jan 2, 2024 2:24pm Jan 2, 2024 2:24pm
Quoting FT.Trader
long 0945
out 0949
  • #114,090
  • Jan 2, 2024 2:30pm Jan 2, 2024 2:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since you trade energy. Keep an eye on the Polar Vortex. It may be weakening. That could make Europe and the U.S. colder. Winter has been mild so far. That may change with a weaker Polar Vortex. It will be harder to keep the cold North. So the next few months may get less mild. Imported NG prices in Europe may be forced higher. Imported from the U.S. may help the USD versus energy importers. The mild winter was better for the Eur/USD to rise. The opposite can be true on a energy rise.
makes sense
good post!
  • #114,091
  • Jan 2, 2024 2:45pm Jan 2, 2024 2:45pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} where did you get this info? I’m a bit interested. Somebody just called me and said it’s gona be -25 c next week. I think it will shoot up the energy prices. Also we had heavy snowfall which made some trees fall on powerlines all over the country, it could worsen. It was -10 c here already in November, we are pretty close to the sea so we can get pretty mild winters some years.
google polar vortex affect on America and Europe

The best i can tell you is, the stronger it is. The tighter, the cold stays Polar. Since its spinning, the weaker spin allows cold to leak to the South of the N pole.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,092
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:02pm Jan 2, 2024 3:02pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} where did you get this info? I’m a bit interested. Somebody just called me and said it’s gona be -25 c next week. I think it will shoot up the energy prices. Also we had heavy snowfall which made some trees fall on powerlines all over the country, it could worsen. It was -10 c here already in November, we are pretty close to the sea so we can get pretty mild winters some years.
I rarely see anything less than -10 C here. If -10 C or less was more than a few hs here. North America would be in deep shit. I think the lowest New orleans ever has was -13 C. Well before modern times and a power grid. -25 C in New Orleans ( a few days) would place much of North America in a severe shortage of petro NG etc. The infrastructure on the gulf coast is not built for that cold.
Hell i still got tomatoes growing. A light freeze can kill them.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,093
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:02pm Jan 2, 2024 3:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} google polar vortex affect on America and Europe The best i can tell you is, the stronger it is. The tighter, the cold stays Polar. Since its spinning, the weaker spin allows cold to leak to the South of the N pole.
i saw this story on the news this weekend
they were predicting a colder second half of winter
  • #114,094
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:04pm Jan 2, 2024 3:04pm
Quoting supertubes
{quote} sl at be im gonna go walk the doggo
stopped out. Sideline for now
  • #114,095
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:09pm Jan 2, 2024 3:09pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} i saw this story on the news this weekend they were predicting a colder second half of winter
Just paying attention gives an edge before the news reports it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,096
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:12pm Jan 2, 2024 3:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
stopped. Placed another pending. If it touches 0940.0. It may give a weakness sign. Although it may still bounce 0935ish. Later {image}
PA has touched -0940.0. I look to s/o or close. I'm not counting on 0935 to support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,097
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:14pm Jan 2, 2024 3:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} PA has touched -0940.0. I look to s/o or close. I'm not counting on 0935 to support.
s/o -2.4 pips.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,098
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:54pm Jan 2, 2024 3:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} google polar vortex affect on America and Europe The best i can tell you is, the stronger it is. The tighter, the cold stays Polar. Since its spinning, the weaker spin allows cold to leak to the South of the N pole.
thank you. I think i understand the basics now,

So it’s gona dissipate in like 4 days(the polar vortex weakens), which creates less low pressure area in the north, building up a high pressure area in the arctic with contribution from greenland and russia.

This high pressure area will push down cold air from arctic, scandinavia to europe. Low pressure area in sahara will create a driving force in form of pressure differences.

I really hope it cools down mediterranean, that sea needs some cooling.
Anyways it will be funny cause we are a net exporter of energy to rest of Europe, last winter we had to pay insane prices cause rest if Europe bid higher for electricity on the market(spot price).
So even due we produce enough electricity to support ourselves, we pay more cause of some kind of agreement within European union.

Heard that gas storage is almost full in Europe, so proably it would affect the electricity prices more.
We got alot of green energy in form of windpower that risk standing still during high pressure/low wind situation, hydroelectric power from Norway is also gone due to the water freezing in such low temperatures.

So on second thought the power might come from fossil sources. will see if it affect any prices if it hit North America too.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #114,099
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:58pm Jan 2, 2024 3:58pm
Quoting supertubes
{quote} I think it can touch a little below 43 / 44 maybe 37 ish and bounce
it hit 37.9 .. small long with a tiny sl
  • #114,100
  • Jan 2, 2024 3:58pm Jan 2, 2024 3:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I rarely see anything less than -10 C here. If -10 C or less was more than a few hs here. North America would be in deep shit. I think the lowest New orleans ever has was -13 C. Well before modern times and a power grid. -25 C in New Orleans ( a few days) would place much of North America in a severe shortage of petro NG etc. The infrastructure on the gulf coast is not built for that cold. Hell i still got tomatoes growing. A light freeze can kill them.
i think no risk, you have the golf stream coming from south america.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
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