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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,321
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:55am Jun 19, 2007 8:55am
yeah i agree with you anyways... Since GBPJPY couldnt broke the level I mentioned. I am also believeing GBPJPY and EURJPY will go to lower levels. for a while in EurJpy waiting for 165.32 to be breached so I can go on short.
And in GBPJPY I will wait until the price goes lower for some time and goes back up to 245.50 so after that I can go long.
However in my opinion those wont mean that the uptrend is broken. uptrend is still pretty much alive.

(wish i could see in to the future )
  • #6,322
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:13am Jun 19, 2007 9:13am
I look at the volume of trades and see that there is a lot of people just waiting for tomorrow`s BoE Minutes, then its another ride....to somewhere.
  • #6,323
  • Jun 19, 2007 9:52am Jun 19, 2007 9:52am
GJ, EJ, UJ have almost the exact same tick charts in the last hour or so... carry traders are on to something. Since there is no other explanation because the Asian session is closed. Yen is being decisive in the pairs. I was hoping for a small EJ slow down so i was short with a goal of getting 20-30 pips, but boy was I wrong. Anyway. The big goal is the 245.50 level in GJ. than i wouldnt mind of EJ
  • #6,324
  • Jun 19, 2007 10:22am Jun 19, 2007 10:22am
Quoting cesarnc
UJ setting up a juicy bottom to fish... But I'm looking for S2 (123.28) to start loading the truck.

Our of GJ so far. Might resume GJs with tomorrow's BOE Minutes.
EJ has come down, but GJ isn't. Both has 95% correlation in the past.Why? I don't know. Does it mean GJ should come down soon?
  • #6,325
  • Jun 19, 2007 10:32am Jun 19, 2007 10:32am
Quoting trader8686
Ok, I am drawing based on fibs, so for this long uptrend we should pick the bottom at 237.66 or else?
sorry trader 8686...i was in office till now...just now came back...yes, thats right...its 237.66...
  • #6,326
  • Jun 19, 2007 10:34am Jun 19, 2007 10:34am
GJ is essentially a composite index of UJ and GU.

It therefore does not always act as a mirror of any of the other carry trades and its movement is more complex.

At least that is my understanding anyway
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #6,327
  • Jun 19, 2007 10:56am Jun 19, 2007 10:56am
Man is this bobbing up and down boring ...
Hopefully usdjpy is soon producing enough momentum to shoot the gbpjpy over the counter ...

Hoping for the Asian session?
always expect the unexpected!
  • #6,328
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:11am Jun 19, 2007 11:11am
Quoting tiku
Man is this bobbing up and down boring ...
Hopefully usdjpy is soon producing enough momentum to shoot the gbpjpy over the counter ...

Hoping for the Asian session?
nice lil channel to scalp tho
  • #6,329
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:33am Jun 19, 2007 11:33am
Yen is giving me lots of tension here... In GJ the 245.50 level and in EJ 165.70 level... both are being tested now... I am guessing the levels will be breached.but it just comes back from both of the levels. though the daily trends say UP some hourly studies are either neutral nor bearish nor bullish...
  • #6,330
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:36am Jun 19, 2007 11:36am
Quoting treadline
ok heres my take on the yen crosses. been long on the pair e/yen since the 163.75. got stopped out at 165.75,profited 200 pips on that one. on my indicator its looking to be over bought. so tonight will look for a reversal pattern on my daily chart. might reverse a little then it should shoot back up. as to what price i couldnt tell you. so tonight i might short the e/yen again to gain some more pips. hope this helps. again this is just speculation.

thanks
Not sure how much this can help you, but just a good reference for short EJ for this week. http://www.rivertheory.com/
  • #6,331
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:38am Jun 19, 2007 11:38am
Quoting Alfa159
Yen is giving me lots of tension here... In GJ the 245.50 level and in EJ 165.70 level... both are being tested now... I am guessing the levels will be breached.but it just comes back from both of the levels. though the daily trends say UP some hourly studies are either neutral nor bearish nor bullish...
I can tell you every time when GJ is ranging it is going up, however I am waiting for retracement to get in.
  • #6,332
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:40am Jun 19, 2007 11:40am
Quoting ns_karthik
sorry trader 8686...i was in office till now...just now came back...yes, thats right...its 237.66...
Thanks, my the other very important question is:
According to drawing the fibonacci retracement, which time frame of this pair (GBPJPY) is most accurate?
  • #6,333
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:42am Jun 19, 2007 11:42am
Quoting trader8686
I can tell you every time when GJ is ranging it is going up, however I am waiting for retracement to get in.
well it might be... since yen simply doesnt want to brake the levels. But we will see into that in the asian session. Though I wouldnt mind a retracement

but i would be SO angry if the GJ pair goes a lil above 245.50 (like 20-30 pips) and than comes back down... man i wouldnt trade for a full week because of anger.
  • #6,334
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:48am Jun 19, 2007 11:48am
Quoting Alfa159
well it might be... since yen simply doesnt want to brake the levels. But we will see into that in the asian session. Though I wouldnt mind a retracement

but i would be SO angry if the GJ pair goes a lil above 245.50 (like 20-30 pips) and than comes back down... man i wouldnt trade for a full week because of anger.
You also have this news coming up (US Central Time) Wednesday morning:3:30am GBPMPC Meeting Minutes http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
  • #6,335
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:50am Jun 19, 2007 11:50am
Quoting trader8686
You also have this news coming up (US Central Time) Wednesday morning:3:30am GBPMPC Meeting Minutes http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif
well after last weeks disaster in US. where news pretty much meant nothing on wed. and thus., i am going to try to close my position before the Meeting Minutes or just close my eyes and see where my order will lead.
  • #6,336
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:52am Jun 19, 2007 11:52am
Quoting trader8686
Thanks, my the other very important question is:
According to drawing the fibonacci retracement, which time frame of this pair (GBPJPY) is most accurate?
as i said in the morning, the time frame does not matter...i use the 4H but that depends....u need to take the low and high of the last wave and then plot the fibs....then the fibs will act as support and resistance whichever TF u look at them...
  • #6,337
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:56am Jun 19, 2007 11:56am
Quoting Alfa159
well after last weeks disaster in US. where news pretty much meant nothing on wed. and thus., i am going to try to close my position before the Meeting Minutes or just close my eyes and see where my order will lead.
Here you go, nice plan.
  • #6,338
  • Jun 19, 2007 11:57am Jun 19, 2007 11:57am
Quoting ns_karthik
as i said in the morning, the time frame does not matter...i use the 4H but that depends....u need to take the low and high of the last wave and then plot the fibs....then the fibs will act as support and resistance whichever TF u look at them...
Thanks again.
  • #6,339
  • Jun 19, 2007 12:00pm Jun 19, 2007 12:00pm
Quoting Alfa159
well it might be... since yen simply doesnt want to brake the levels. But we will see into that in the asian session. Though I wouldnt mind a retracement

but i would be SO angry if the GJ pair goes a lil above 245.50 (like 20-30 pips) and than comes back down... man i wouldnt trade for a full week because of anger.

To be honest, Dear Alfa, a little fakie wouldn't surprise me :surprised
Another 100 pips down from there and back again. Fooling us a bit ...
always expect the unexpected!
  • #6,340
  • Jun 19, 2007 12:06pm Jun 19, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting tiku
To be honest, Dear Alfa, a little fakie wouldn't surprise me :surprised
Another 100 pips down from there and back again. Fooling us a bit ...
yeah thats what i am waiting... because the pair lately was going TOO obvious in uptrend direction... Fibo levels match EXACT and so does the Trend line including the median...
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