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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #17,581
  • Dec 23, 2023 12:12pm Dec 23, 2023 12:12pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Yeah I was thinking the same thing but whatever. I know that I am doing quite well with my long term trading and it is unfortunate many are missing out on it. I was thinking of explaining the numbers as that may increase the interest but not sure, what do you think? Merry Christmas and all the best to you and your family in the new year. Regards Terry
I will have a look at it, Terry! Step by step, but it surely is interesting and stress free trading. Merry Christmas to you and your family.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,582
  • Dec 24, 2023 5:23am Dec 24, 2023 5:23am
Happy Christmas!
Enjoy time with family and friends, having a good break from trading.
Best wishes to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #17,583
  • Dec 24, 2023 9:29am Dec 24, 2023 9:29am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Yeah I was thinking the same thing but whatever. I know that I am doing quite well with my long term trading and it is unfortunate many are missing out on it. I was thinking of explaining the numbers as that may increase the interest but not sure, what do you think? Merry Christmas and all the best to you and your family in the new year. Regards Terry
I was thinking of explaining the numbers as that may increase the interest but not sure, what do you think?

It's your choice, Terry. You have put in the effort over the years to become consistently profitable so only you can decide. My experience here with PASR over these coming up to 15 years is that while there are a few respectful and grateful people out there, the majority are just looking for an easy, spoon feeding, no work ride, with even some biting off the hand that feeds them! I think you know what I would do!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,584
  • Dec 25, 2023 2:15am Dec 25, 2023 2:15am
Quoting Strat
{quote} I was thinking of explaining the numbers as that may increase the interest but not sure, what do you think? It's your choice, Terry. You have put in the effort over the years to become consistently profitable so only you can decide. My experience here with PASR over these coming up to 15 years is that while there are a few respectful and grateful people out there, the majority are just looking for an easy, spoon feeding, no work ride, with even some biting off the hand that feeds them! I think you know what I would do!
There is a german saying: "Undank ist der Welten Lohn!" (ingratitude is the world's reward). Karma will finally sort it out in many cases. We have to do what we have to do, regardless of cheap egos and rude characters everywhere - as you have proven here over and over again. In this case, I think we could also find our answers in the first thread and by our own work and experience.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,585
  • Dec 25, 2023 8:02am Dec 25, 2023 8:02am
Hey. Is there a way to contact you directly? Merry Christmas!
  • #17,586
  • Dec 25, 2023 9:07am Dec 25, 2023 9:07am
Quoting lddd
Hey. Is there a way to contact you directly? Merry Christmas!
Is there a way to contact you directly?

Feel free to post here as we have full transparency without secrets for all to share.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,587
  • Dec 25, 2023 10:13am Dec 25, 2023 10:13am
Quoting Strat
{quote} Is there a way to contact you directly? Feel free to post here as we have full transparency without secrets for all to share.
Okay, then I have to think about how to write it first. It is not intended for the general public and has nothing directly to do with your trading method.

But here's a question for you.

Based on what I've read here, it seems like you spend a lot of time analyzing things. I think in one of the first posts you at least said that yourself. What is your opinion/attitude towards traders who prefer to keep things simple and systematic if possible? Can this work or do you have to analyze the cr@p out of charts all day (probably more than one market/currency pair) or can you do something simple like: "I trade a maximum of ONE and the same instrument every day regardless of "market condition", during specific trading hours, according to clear and objective/replicable rules, to be finally able to make a living from it? IF that's possible, maybe someone could guide me in the right direction so that I don't spend another 10 years doing things that don't take me one step closer to that goal.

regards.
  • #17,588
  • Dec 26, 2023 12:32pm Dec 26, 2023 12:32pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Okay, then I have to think about how to write it first. It is not intended for the general public and has nothing directly to do with your trading method. But here's a question for you. Based on what I've read here, it seems like you spend a lot of time analyzing things. I think in one of the first posts you at least said that yourself. What is your opinion/attitude towards traders who prefer to keep things simple and systematic if possible? Can this work or do you have to analyze the cr@p out of charts all day (probably more than one market/currency...
What is your opinion/attitude towards traders who prefer to keep things simple and systematic if possible?

That is the main goal of profitable trading but, since the Market is fickle and changeable, it is not always possible. PASR is simple, systematic but subjective depending on the trader's experience with, and understanding of, PASR, the Market conditions, and the instrument he is trading.

Can this work or do you have to analyze the cr@p out of charts all day

It all comes down to the trader's particular and unique style of trading. I started out analysing everything on a chart, many times suffering from paralysis of analysis until eventually I had built a mental data base of PASR trading situations involving thousands of hours of charting and trading time over many years that I now trade on instinct or "Zen" as Barbaresco coined it. Dropping down to minute and second time frames put an end to over analysis and reduced it to a more "visual" style.

can you do something simple like: "I trade a maximum of ONE and the same instrument every day regardless of "market condition", during specific trading hours,"

Yes, that is exactly what I do trading only the ES S&P 500 Index from NY Market Open until volume and volatility dries up.

"according to clear and objective/replicable rules,"

PASR does not have "clear and objective/replicable rules" as it is subjective based on the trader's experience with, and understanding of, PASR, the Market conditions, and the instrument he is trading. The nature of the Market ensures that anything with "clear and objective/replicable rules" is not profitable over the long haul.

"finally able to make a living from it"

This has nothing to do with methods, strategies, systems etc., and is 100% down to each individual trader and how he/she deals with emotions at the "hard right edge" as their understanding of a "Set Up" appears, if they are able to "pull the trigger", control their psychological emotions once in a trade, how they manage the trade and risks etc. Over these last coming up to 15 years on here, I have seen many who have understood PASR and yet have been unable to actually trade it profitably while there have been others who understood the concept, took it and "tweaked" it to suit their own individual style of trading. Some have used it as a stepping stone on to other strategies/methods.

maybe someone could guide me in the right direction so that I don't spend another 10 years doing things that don't take me one step closer to that goal.

With the utmost respect, if you haven't made it in 10 years, you may not be suited to trading.

Thank you for your post
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,589
  • Edited 4:05pm Dec 26, 2023 3:45pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quoting Strat
With the utmost respect, if you haven't made it in 10 years, you may not be suited to trading. Thank you for your post
Hi. Good answer! Thank you.

Yes, I thought about giving up a few times, especially during the last 2 years. But it’s hard. All the time I’ve spent for basically no return. It’s a hard pill to swallow and there is no guarantee the next thing is giving you more success. The only guarantee you have is that IF you give up, you’ll never make it.

I know there are millions ways to make a million dollars so why trading... It’s hard to answer in a few words. I do have passion for it. I like to work on my own. I do have the discipline. I do have some analytical skills.

I am self employed for the last 12 years and looking for a way to replace my income from trading because I cannot longer deal with annoying clients. A regular job is problematic too.

To me the main problem in trading seems to be not really having a clear trading plan that can actually work to achieve what I am looking for.

I feel like having „wasted“ a great deal of my time system hopping etc. Made every rookie mistake of the book many times.

Another trader also told me that some discretion is probably needed but if you don’t have good intuition that’s not going to help at this moment.

Every time I tried trading on my own discretion some days it worked out well and I ended up profitable, some days I took 8-9 trades in a row and nearly blowed my account. I think I even managed to lose 15-20 trades in a row. So that easily turns into over trading and losing a great deal of my bank roll making it hard to ever recover from again. At least not without then taking even further/higher risks.

So I came back trying to solve the puzzle with a mechanic approach because here you can backtest a system and see if it has some positive expected value. Yes I know past results are no guarantee for future results but it’s probably better to have statistics on your side. At least that’s what I am telling myself. Maybe better to know something at least ever worked in the past. I don’t like to go on a airplane that was never tested to fly. Still it can crash, sure.

Anyhow. Will keep watching your topic. Maybe I get some new ideas from it.

All the best and Rock’n’Roll hah :-)
  • #17,590
  • Dec 26, 2023 6:59pm Dec 26, 2023 6:59pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} The long term stress free trading has always been appealing to me, but I have not been able to consistently keep it up as it is somewhat in conflict with my daily life. By the time NY closes, I am usually in the land of nod as I need a certain amount of sleep to concentrate and feel alive during the day. I can check the charts in the morning before the London session, but the Asia session might have already continued a move based on NY close, especially on crosses.
Same here. I could theoretically watch/trade both complete session times (EU/NY) but don’t think that’s the way.

I tried focusing on the first hours of the London session strictly trading GBP/USD on the M15 time frame for nearly 1 full year but it didn’t help so far.

People told me it’s generally a good idea to focus on one thing over becoming a Jack of all trades and master of none.

Reality so far proofed me differently.

Now I also got people telling me Forex isn’t too good for day trading and I should try looking at indices so I started to look a at DAX as it would also perfectly fit within my preferable trading hours.

But yeah, haven’t found some edge here either so far. Overall it seems to be less prone to all these whipsaw moves as I experienced on GU and had a hard time dealing with. I usually used a 15-20 Pips stop on my entries and usually got stopped out a lot making even one big trending day not compensating for 16-18 losing days a month.

I guess a static stop loss expressed in Pips/Points is quite meaningless on its own as it doesn’t account for the underlying‘s volatility.

Long term stress free trading appeals to me too but I don’t get the connection between steady gains / generating cash flow (income) by waiting for these large home run trades to maybe materialize in a yearly salary (if your broker then even pays it out) at some far away point in the future. The whole concept of long term trend following doesn’t fit too well with my personality too.

On the other hand I can understand people usually saying trading the smaller time frame is random noise and you get killed, have no chance, scalping is all evil, you only make your broker rich and so on.

I like your clean charts.

What’s the green/red indicator on it?
  • #17,591
  • Dec 27, 2023 2:11am Dec 27, 2023 2:11am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Same here. I could theoretically watch/trade both complete session times (EU/NY) but don’t think that’s the way. I tried focusing on the first hours of the London session strictly trading GBP/USD on the M15 time frame for nearly 1 full year but it didn’t help so far. People told me it’s generally a good idea to focus on one thing over becoming a Jack of all trades and master of none. Reality so far proofed me differently. Now I also got people telling me Forex isn’t too good for day trading and I should try looking at indices so I started...
Hi Iddd, here is a serious question and your trading profitability may improve depending on how you answer it.

Why do Automobile manufacturer's make the rear window smaller than the front?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #17,592
  • Dec 27, 2023 3:33am Dec 27, 2023 3:33am
To prioritize aerodynamics and reduce air resistance, while still providing enough visibility for the driver to see the rear of the vehicle
Thank you and best regards.
  • #17,593
  • Dec 27, 2023 5:29am Dec 27, 2023 5:29am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Iddd, here is a serious question and your trading profitability may improve depending on how you answer it. Why do Automobile manufacturer's make the rear window smaller than the front?
Hey Rick.

This is probably a trick question, but I think because it's probably more important to see what's happening in front of you than behind you.
  • #17,594
  • Dec 27, 2023 6:35am Dec 27, 2023 6:35am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Same here. I could theoretically watch/trade both complete session times (EU/NY) but don’t think that’s the way. I tried focusing on the first hours of the London session strictly trading GBP/USD on the M15 time frame for nearly 1 full year but it didn’t help so far. People told me it’s generally a good idea to focus on one thing over becoming a Jack of all trades and master of none. Reality so far proofed me differently. Now I also got people telling me Forex isn’t too good for day trading
I can say focusing on one thing is a better way. Stay away from GBP pairs while sill trying to figure it out (I also made the same mistake of going for GBPUSD - which is good for scalping and day trading). You can go for EURUSD or AUDUSD, instead.

Stay away from lower time-frames until you can be profitable using the higher time-frames (you can keep W1, D1, H4 and H1 on your trading platform). In addition, try to look for trades that can last for 2 to 3 days - targeting the High or Low of the week is much better than going for the High or Low of the day when you are still trying to figure it out - you can see Price Action better.

The High and Low are predetermined and price can only move Up and Down (and therefore you must have a demarcation line/point) - this should be your number 1 guiding principle.
  • #17,595
  • Edited 8:42am Dec 27, 2023 7:47am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting Pumi
{quote} I can say focusing on one thing is a better way. Stay away from GBP pairs while sill trying to figure it out (I also made the same mistake of going for GBPUSD - which is good for scalping and day trading). You can go for EURUSD or AUDUSD, instead. Stay away from lower time-frames until you can be profitable using the higher time-frames (you can keep W1, D1, H4 and H1 on your trading platform). In addition, try to look for trades that can last for 2 to 3 days - targeting the High or Low of the week is much better than going for the High or...
Thanks for your feedback. In fact, when I first started trading, my focus was on EUR/USD. However, I had the same problems there. I'm not sure if it's really a "time frame" thing for me. Price starts to move from the smallest time frame (one tick) and in principle knows no time frames. You have the X axis (time) and the Y axis (price). It's always the same. Whether I look at a weekly chart or a tick chart.

This is also the reason why I'm looking for a systematic trading approach that simply (based on statistics) achieves a certain minimum result from the sum of my trades entered over X period of time. To make it clear. Say, If I have 20 days in the month and make 20 trades, I don't care if I lose 19 of them and win 1 or win 19 and lose 1. As long as the result is X min. % of which I could pay my bills, that's all im interested in.

I don't like to analyze the "price action" so much and skip through the multiple "time frames". Every time i read about multiple timeframe analyses i feel like i want to jump out the window... To me it all looks like random chaos of price moving up and down. Most of the time its actually moving sideways. You see a "pattern" today that works, tomorrow it fails miserably. Maybe that's why I'm more of a quantitative type.

Do you really think the Daily/Weekly charts look any clearer so you could forecast them with a greater deal of certainty? How many signals do you get for X strategy if you only want to trade 1 and the same currency pair on the daily chart and what does that lead to in relation to X% profit at the end of the month in relation to X% drawdown?

No question, it's definitely healthier (just for your eyes) to place your stop order just once at the end of the day and then go back to sleep. But I think that also requires very good risk and money management. Larger stops, longer periods of time until you reach x take profit target.

At the end of the day, it’s all about achieving a goal if you want to make a living from it. I think trading to slowly increase your capital through compounding, regardless of whether you have a negative year or not, if you plan to trade like that for 30 years anyway, is something completely different, but even then I think I would be better off to put a fixed amount into some ETF every month. In fact, if I had started doing this 20 years ago instead of trying to trade for a living on high leverage and not much capital, I would probably be closer to my goal.

I'm almost in my late 30s now and I simply don't have the time or energy to do things that are simply destined to fail. I want to live NOW not in 20 years when I have gray hair.

I don't think I have particularly unrealistic goals and risk perceptions compared to all the people here who make hundreds if not thousands of meaningless "pips" every month, easy peasy. Yeah, sure. I'm basically looking at minimum wage. Here in my country it is around 50k/year. My income last year was around 70k. So that's what I have to endure at least to be able to say that I can make a living from trading. I think if you can't do that as a trader, you might as well go work.

My friends & family are already wondering why I invest so much time trying to become a trader and I'm starting to wonder whether I'm too stupid or whether it's simply not possible (for me).
  • #17,596
  • Dec 27, 2023 12:35pm Dec 27, 2023 12:35pm
Testing my discretionary chart reading (price action) skills again. Selling at the "top".

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  • #17,597
  • Dec 27, 2023 1:05pm Dec 27, 2023 1:05pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks for your feedback. In fact, when I first started trading, my focus was on EUR/USD. However, I had the same problems there. I'm not sure if it's really a "time frame" thing for me. Price starts to move from the smallest time frame (one tick) and in principle knows no time frames. You have the X axis (time) and the Y axis (price). It's always the same. Whether I look at a weekly chart or a tick chart. This is also the reason why I'm looking for a systematic trading approach that simply (based on statistics) achieves a certain minimum...
Not sure if i went over this with you on zoom at some point but this is how i use daily candles to bank 100s of pips and its very easy ---- look at the green lines, i add on these if i am in already. if not in then the green lines are how i get in.. Its really easy and simple once you have your bias for long or short.... it dont mean you will get every trade right but you will get more right than wrong
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  • #17,598
  • Dec 27, 2023 1:17pm Dec 27, 2023 1:17pm
Quoting lddd
Testing my discretionary chart reading (price action) skills again. Selling at the "top". {image}
What were the factors/conditions you used/saw to make this decision?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,599
  • Edited 2:03pm Dec 27, 2023 1:30pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hey Rick. This is probably a trick question, but I think because it's probably more important to see what's happening in front of you than behind you.
There are only two things in front of you, and those two things are the only important factors you should be watching using immerse concentration.
Thats current price and current liquidity in front & behind you, the reason you entered now is irrelevant. Candle patterns are worthless one candle later.

Looking at your current trade on GBPUSD - I feel you should

GET THE FUCK OUT OF THAT TRADE

You missed the trend and now it's in consolidation.

In fact it's probably a LONG because the liquidity is building on the Short Side, the Algo's are likely to clean those Short Retail traders pretty soon.
Personally, I wouldn't be in till there's a clear liquidity imbalance either way
As for your desire to trade one market at one time, I do that every day by trading NQ if trading during the London Session or S&P during the New York session.

Sorry Stat, this has got nothing to do with your great thread, one of the best on Forex Factory
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #17,600
  • Dec 27, 2023 2:00pm Dec 27, 2023 2:00pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} There are only two things in front of you, and those two things are the only important factors you should be watching using immerse concentration. Thats current price and current liquidity in front & behind you, the reason you entered now is irrelevant. Candle patterns are worthless one candle later. Looking at your current trade on GBPUSD - I feel you should
I know what you’re trying to get at. Once you’re entered a trade it‘s all about managing the trade.

To be honest I don’t want to manage anything at all if i don’t have to instead of placing my orders and wait until either the stop or target is reached.

I posted this example chart of showing what I normally tend to do without having a proven plan and what I would consider as trading the naked price action that is right here in front of me.

The time of the day is also not where I normally would enter a trade. The larger part of the trending move to the upside happened after LO.

I would normally have stopped out at least 2 times here trying to catch that larger part of the „trend“.

Trend. I hate this world like plaque. The trend is your friend until it ends. What does it help to see the trend over the past. Then you have 273 different „trends“ depending on what time frame and size or a monitor you look at things? I mean wtf.

„Liquidity“, „HFT“, these are all nice sounding terms that I don’t wish to care about either.

What is next, the ICT? liquidity gaps, moonshine kill zones, the market makers all trying to stop you out of your 0.01 lot positions? The bad Algos. Please…

No, it’s all on me, not finding a simple plan that is working to achieve what I am looking for. It’s in my responsibility.
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