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The Swamp

  • #113,901
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:34am Dec 20, 2023 10:34am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} looks like its going to be a 3 bar triangle on the daily i forgot to look at the economic calendar it's real common before a major economic report. gdp tomorrow this one is tighter than the last one
A lot of Quarter interest here (0993).. Plus the 200 (1.1010) wk sometimes is a top. If this is a long term top. 1.0980 may stop movement above short term.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,902
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:42am Dec 20, 2023 10:42am
Most trends began with a LC miss. Earlier Lc missed 0985.


The 200 day and plus are bullish. The week 200 at 1010.
POC quarter at 0993
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,903
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:47am Dec 20, 2023 10:47am
do you mean downtrends in this situation?
  • #113,904
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:51am Dec 20, 2023 10:51am
Quoting FT.Trader
do you mean downtrends in this situation?
It's already in a downtrend using the 200 weekly. Its testing it.. i dont know if it breaks or fails. Last week pa fell to the mid point to the 200 day. it bounced back here to the 200 week. Where now? Well without knowing if the week will break or not. To me the better r/r to reward is down. It missed a LC. Just a minor thing. But it did miss. PA is below 0980, another thing. Clues add up. Now lets see if it can break 1 h close below 0925. That would be 1 more clue.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,905
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:52am Dec 20, 2023 10:52am
Quoting gatorinla
Most trends began with a LC miss. Earlier Lc missed 0985. The 200 day and plus are bullish. The week 200 at 1010. POC quarter at 0993 {image} {image}
interesting now i see
  • #113,906
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:59am Dec 20, 2023 10:59am
1.0910 is a adr.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,907
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:05am Dec 20, 2023 11:05am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} interesting now i see
I'm looking through bear and bull lens. I went long earlier based on st support and reaching LC or 0980. Well it missed a normally "most time" retrace. That looks to be bulls weaker atm. That dont mean if will fall. But its here after testing .1010 and 0993. Its below 0980. Another clue is a -0925 hour close. A day close below 0980 today. Most of us trade smaller time frames. Many use the 200 for trend direction. The day trend is bullish.
Early in a trend change. These little misses will occur. But that dont mean the trend has changed. The bulls may take several tries before giving up/ or break. It may range during this time
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,908
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:09am Dec 20, 2023 11:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm looking through bear and bull lens. I went long earlier based on st support and reaching LC or 0980. Well it missed a normally "most time" retrace. That looks to be bulls weaker atm. That dont mean if will fall. But its here after testing .1010 and 0993. Its below 0980. Another clue is a -0925 hour close. A day close below 0980 today. Most of us trade smaller time frames. Many use the 200 for trend direction. The day trend is bullish. Early in a trend change. These little misses will occur. But that dont mean the trend has changed. The...
I still see this hitting above 1000.
  • #113,909
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:14am Dec 20, 2023 11:14am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I still see this hitting above 1000.
Trade what you see. Did you mean 1.1? What is the entry, s/l for it?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,910
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:33am Dec 20, 2023 11:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Trade what you see. Did you mean 1.1? What is the entry, s/l for it?
Yes, 1.1000. I expect today's low and especially 1.0900 to hold. Today's sell was well expected. Those who wanted to buy would have bought earlier when it fell to 1.093x-40.
  • #113,911
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:41am Dec 20, 2023 11:41am
Friday between the 200s.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,912
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:44am Dec 20, 2023 11:44am
Quoting gatorinla
Friday between the 200s. {image}
Today between the 200s.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,913
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:49am Dec 20, 2023 11:49am
i've highlighted quite a few 3 bar trade triangles on eur usd daily
it appears to me that an overwhelming majority of days the market goes in the direction of the 3rd day
today is not over but if it was i would be looking for opportunities to sell

good luck
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  • #113,914
  • Dec 20, 2023 11:54am Dec 20, 2023 11:54am
Added the 200 ema's
No doubt the day is on the bull side. But it is pressing into much larger time frames' R areas. It's bullish into R.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,915
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:09pm Dec 20, 2023 12:09pm
6h
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,916
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:09pm Dec 20, 2023 12:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
Most trends began with a LC miss. Earlier Lc missed 0985. The 200 day and plus are bullish. The week 200 at 1010. POC quarter at 0993 {image} {image}
i'm going to backtest that LC miss on WTI and see if that is common
  • #113,917
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:13pm Dec 20, 2023 12:13pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} i'm going to backtest that LC miss on WTI and see if that is common
Give us some results
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,918
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:36pm Dec 20, 2023 12:36pm
That break at 0960. Sometimes i use to long with a stop at 0949. I usually target 2.5X of risk to tp. 0980 won't give 2.5x. Plus late in the day.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,919
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:42pm Dec 20, 2023 12:42pm
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Backtest of wti
the missed LC appears to work on this market too

30min chart and cyan lines are LC

looks like a short is setting up right now
settlement is in 45 mins
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  • #113,920
  • Dec 20, 2023 1:08pm Dec 20, 2023 1:08pm
eurusd 30 min with LC
2nd chart is zoomed in
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