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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,261
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:06am Jun 18, 2007 12:06am
hi guys,
what your opinion about buy now at 244.47 , it will up ?
Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #6,262
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:10am Jun 18, 2007 12:10am
its still on an uptrend..... but you never know.
  • #6,263
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:12am Jun 18, 2007 12:12am
Quoting Khello
hi guys,
what your opinion about buy now at 244.47 , it will up ?
my humble opinion is to wait. Neither short or longs are good now. If u have a long open ( i closed mine already) u can keep it, but at current levels it should make a retracement soon. But before jumping in like other guys do and sell, wait for a confirmation, at least for the price to go below 244.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #6,264
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:26am Jun 18, 2007 12:26am
thank you
Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #6,265
  • Jun 18, 2007 1:43am Jun 18, 2007 1:43am
the trend is still very strong, the fundamentals are unchanged, it's broken through resistance. next stop c249.27 from 1998, then 286 from 1990.

I'm beginning to think that the terms "overbought" and "oversold" are the enemy and should be erradicated from the trading lexicon.

Quoting gr8collector
its still on an uptrend..... but you never know.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #6,266
  • Jun 18, 2007 1:54am Jun 18, 2007 1:54am
Quoting cgldsmth
the trend is still very strong, the fundamentals are unchanged, it's broken through resistance. next stop c249.27 from 1998, then 286 from 1990.

I'm beginning to think that the terms "overbought" and "oversold" are the enemy and should be erradicated from the trading lexicon.
Yes OB and OS mean are nothing more then pretty lines IMO when circumstances such as these arise. The market makers will not suddenly see that they have pushed something into OB and OS and change there direction. How ever profit taking will have an impact and all that does is then give the "makers" a chance to reset.

Hence buy on dips. If the trend does not reverse after 250 then I will continue to do this until after the JPY elections when a rate hike is more likely.

At that time I will close all my long and wait to see what happens
  • #6,267
  • Jun 18, 2007 2:00am Jun 18, 2007 2:00am
I agree.

Overbought and oversold indicators simply show the strength of the current trend.

Certainly a cross cannot maintain an extreme position forever, however such indicators make no prediction about when such a trend will end.

This seems especially true of GY and other yen crosses since they seem to experience such extended surges as a regular matter of course.

Paying too much attention to overbought conditions alone leaves you fighting an extreme trend and cannot be good for your balance long term
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #6,268
  • Jun 18, 2007 2:04am Jun 18, 2007 2:04am
Just looking and JPY crosses now....





I love London open
  • #6,269
  • Jun 18, 2007 2:31am Jun 18, 2007 2:31am
Be aware that such yen level might encourage the different central bank to make a concerted intervention to improve yen value.

New Zealand allready intervened once on the market (this was to decrease NZD value )...

Carry trade is maybe bad for the yen but added cash flow on the market just increase volatility
  • #6,270
  • Jun 18, 2007 4:41am Jun 18, 2007 4:41am
it may be trendup above 245 ???????


i
Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #6,271
  • Jun 18, 2007 4:42am Jun 18, 2007 4:42am
it may be trendup above 245 ???????


i am realy dont know short it or long
i think dont any thing
Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #6,272
  • Jun 18, 2007 4:58am Jun 18, 2007 4:58am
Quoting melpheos
Be aware that such yen level might encourage the different central bank to make a concerted intervention to improve yen value.

New Zealand allready intervened once on the market (this was to decrease NZD value )...

Carry trade is maybe bad for the yen but added cash flow on the market just increase volatility
The problem is, regardless of the BoJ's intervention real interest rate differentials are so skewed in favor of any of the high yielders that it would take a concerted, and sustained buying of Yen by the BOJ to curtail the carry trade and why/how would they do that when real money demand is at astronomical levels? The Financial Times had a feature on the carry trade which detailed the financing of homeloans in Europe, using JPY. BoJ is pissing in the wind. Along with the RBNZ the BoJ is at the whim of the market this is a runaway train and no amount of scaremongering by impotent CB's will change that, now an equity meltdown, that's a different story.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,273
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:23am Jun 18, 2007 10:23am
Welcome at 245.00
  • #6,274
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:31am Jun 18, 2007 10:31am
Quoting gr8collector
its still on an uptrend..... but you never know.
hi gr8, welcome over here... WSS has been performing well,eh?
  • #6,275
  • Jun 18, 2007 10:36am Jun 18, 2007 10:36am
Quoting DutchTrader
The problem is, regardless of the BoJ's intervention real interest rate differentials are so skewed in favor of any of the high yielders that it would take a concerted, and sustained buying of Yen by the BOJ to curtail the carry trade and why/how would they do that when real money demand is at astronomical levels? The Financial Times had a feature on the carry trade which detailed the financing of homeloans in Europe, using JPY. BoJ is pissing in the wind. Along with the RBNZ the BoJ is at the whim of the market this is a runaway train and no amount of scaremongering by impotent CB's will change that, now an equity meltdown, that's a different story.

This simply means 1 thing : 250.00 for GJ. Guys, reload your ammo and buy on DIPS... just wait and get the swap fee daily while waiting for $$$ in making

but I'm staying out. Will only enter when minor correction in place, looking at 238-239 area.
  • #6,276
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:12am Jun 18, 2007 11:12am
Quoting gagiul
my humble opinion is to wait. Neither short or longs are good now. If u have a long open ( i closed mine already) u can keep it, but at current levels it should make a retracement soon..
same oppinion from me, i don't think this trend will continue much more, closed my positions. The trend is almost 10 days long, +700 pips and no real correction. on daily tf, the candles have a verry small upper shadow

Personally i'm waiting for dips
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #6,277
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:15am Jun 18, 2007 11:15am
btw: why everyone is saing cheap yen is bad for the BOJ. Just think that japan is an export-oriented country, and cheap jpy make imports from japan more competitive against other goods(just my oppinion, again)
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #6,278
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:51am Jun 18, 2007 11:51am
as pointed out in my blog, uncorrected superfast trend is not good for any pair for that matter...there will be the occasional correction...if the japanese start feeling that yen is too much undervalued, they will do the needful to life it again...also, if the yen is undervalued, it will reflect in the fundamentals and so the pair will correct itself...

personally, dont think it will go down as low as 238-239....might go down to 241-242 in the near term...
  • #6,279
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:55am Jun 18, 2007 11:55am
japan is an export country BUT don't they need to purchase raw materials for all the Stuff they export?

also, wuts gunna stop this from going to 300?
seems like people will continue to click the BUY button until...i really don't know what
taking series 3 and 34
  • #6,280
  • Jun 18, 2007 12:08pm Jun 18, 2007 12:08pm
I got profit locked in on multiple orders some from last week. Trailing stops all round just going to let them run till the first correction as I doubt they will survive it and reset my positions at that point.
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