Trading the Cable swings via averages

I wasn't sure if this was an ABCD (4H). The green candle was right on the EMA. However, I went short at the 50% D and a few hours later got paid 90 pips.
It May well test the daily EMA, but I am done for today.

We see target to swing low H4 2484.

We have a huge ABCD on the 4H now with the top at 273 and the bottom at 249.

Nalaalaaalaaaal

No more targets that I can see other than the weekly which has a long way to go.
Sit it out now and await new signals.

Whaaaaaat?

New huge ABCD on H1 has arrived

Yep, did anyone trade the 4H HD down?

It was also in HD on the 1H also.

Yes boss. Still in there
Wasnt expecting that big drop. Saw the divergence on the H1 and jumped in for trip to the EMA. Lucky for me it went +100 pips heading for the H4 EMA and closed it just now before the weekend.

Got in before the ABCD. long time waiting tho and one short trade hit SL before the big drop. Divergence at the bottom = time to leave

HD is always best signal to get on a train, it shows some big movement is about to happened. As usual, that very top HD makes price recross and close below EMA26 h1 to form ABCD and it did. It was my favorite down move because it gives me a lot additional entries.
Thank you for your amazing systems.

Well, I wouldn't say that HD shows a big move is about to happen, that would depend how far away the EMA is from the HD.

The whole thing is really quite simple.

1) An ABCD defines two possible targets, D and D1. In a down trending EMA situation price will often fake a move to the 50% D level putting us in a situation to make a 3:1 Win/Loss by shorting it. The converse is true for an up-trending EMA. This means we can always calculate our desired lot size to control our risk and make our profit. We always put the math on our side to keep our account constantly building. Sure, we get the odd loss when a rollover occurs, but these losses are small, and we can factor these into our calculations.

2) Once an ABCD D or D1 target is reached we look to counter the move, and this generally shows up as one of the various types of divergence I have discussed on one time frame or another. We initially aim to make the EMA but at the same time we observe the chart to see if a new ABCD has the possibility of being created. If we can see that there is no pivot to attack, then no ABCD will result. This happens when price just bolts up or down to the target from below or above the EMA.

3) We keep an eye on the EMA to see if it is trying for a HH or LL average. Here we are comparing the averages to previous averages as price tries to tug them into position.


Knowing a lot of people carry a lot of baggage in their respective heads based on all manner of things to make trading very complicated. Not to mention all the conspiracy theories out there which I see no evidence at all for dreaming them up. Whereas I have the evidence going way back to show the stuff I write is as factual as I can make it, I am up to the eleventh 20-day period of screenshots I have painstakingly recorded to demonstrate this evidence.

Sometimes I cannot see a trade and when this happens, I simply stand aside until the signal pops up. There is a lot more study to be made to find out what causes these interludes after all the market is still in motion but if I stick to what I know then I have no worries about being successful.

Lastly to finish this rant I must thank the many people over the past twenty years or so for their contributions some of which have been dismissed, some have been adopted and adapted and some remain a mystery to me. All this work has been boiled down from a huge volume of text and thought to the 3 points raised above.

Enjoy and have a great family get together over this festive month. Stay safe (if possible) and come back in 2024 invigorated for another exciting year.

Alan

Thanks so much Mr. Alan! this help me so much to verify my ABC setup.

Time for Christmass and new year! i wish you heathy and happy....

Whos a clever uncle Nala then?. Turned on the H1 50% as stated. Merry Xmas Nala

A

Yes, but it didn't even make it back to the 1H EMA (yet) and the market has become choppy. Many traders are winding down their activity at this time of the year though the diehards will always hang in there hoping to glean a few extra bucks.

Cash conversions are very busy with the additional loads of travelers flitting around the planet so the demand for currency is always there though the banks tend to exchange with each other to get better prices rather than on the open market. However, the market is always being watched for activity by those who can afford the time to do so. We retail traders need to stick matchsticks in our eyes to prop them open for long periods or scalps tiny trades and risk getting that wrong.

I am busy with other family stuff so have quit trading for a while. This is a great time for anyone who has any questions. You can ask them privately if you wish to remain secretive and I will answer without mentioning you. I learn stuff from your questions too, so it is a win win hey!

Managed +25 today. Markets slowing down

Got lucky on this +70

markets running out of steam so might call it week done at 5% on the account. Been trying to get to grips with hedging and when to hedge and its been a tough week. More practice needed

Your DD is so good, How many pips did you set up your SL?

I am concentrating on getting the right divergence signals so currently using a 20 pip SL with 40 pip TP on each trade or the last swing Hilo for SL and adjusting as necessary. I think the hedging might be helping with the DD as well instead of just closing out the trade. I also move my TP point out if the trade looks good for it. Also have a habit of moving the SL out a bit to give the trade some room to move.
I suspect the low DD is due to me finding some good trades that dont dither around. Make sure you confirm the move on M5 chart as well.