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Attachments: My Live Trades
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My Live Trades

  • #121
  • May 21, 2007 4:56pm May 21, 2007 4:56pm
yes.... USDCAD... is at a historical low.... it's hard to break that....
  • #122
  • May 21, 2007 4:56pm May 21, 2007 4:56pm
and here's a better one, almost 2 years and a half data used for regression. if this pair doesn't go long now or anytime soon, then i should drop this strategy because it's no good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u-cad_2yrs.jpg Size: 49 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #123
  • May 21, 2007 5:13pm May 21, 2007 5:13pm
by the way, you see that trend seems to be different depending on how much data (1 year, 2 years) i use to obtain the regression. however, the price is now at the lower green line in both situations.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #124
  • May 21, 2007 7:19pm May 21, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting Scrat
by the way, you see that trend seems to be different depending on how much data (1 year, 2 years) i use to obtain the regression. however, the price is now at the lower green line in both situations.
Scrat,

If I may, I would like to clarify what I meant by backtesting.

With your system, you must enter/exit off a certain timeframe, I believe you use 4hr charts ie - each candle is 4 hrs long, with weekly candles and 3monthly candles to give you signals.
To backtest any system, you would have to scroll your chart back a few years on the timeframe you are entering/exiting from so that the right hand edge of you chart is, say, 2yrs ago (for 4hr backtesting).Then move forward in time as though it is real, analysing each 4hr candle to see if you have an entry.

This is the only way to see how a system would have performed over the test period and every system should be tested this way before anyone comes to the conclusion that they have a profitable system.

This, obviously, takes eons to do. I've always traded off dailies and I go back to 2000 for my backtesting and move forward one daily candle at a time. Of course during this time, if you change even one small part of your system, then go back to the start and start all over again because you have a different system. It's a mechanical thing, you would have to take every trade and exit according to your rules, or you have'nt got a system. You can't say "Hmmmm, no, I would'nt have taken that one. it did'nt look right....."
I'm not sure how many of the "systems" on this forum have been tested this way.

It looks like you have come up with a great idea and I'm sure everyone following this thread would like to see you make some $ out of it.

Cheers........
  • #125
  • May 22, 2007 11:48am May 22, 2007 11:48am
I have to take a break from posting, about a week. I'll be back next Monday/Tuesday.
Good luck to everyone.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #126
  • May 23, 2007 8:54am May 23, 2007 8:54am
just couldn't help it...

short g-u @ 1.9870
short g-j @ 241.60
short g-chf @ 2.4355
short e-u @ 1.3510

good luck.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #127
  • May 23, 2007 9:56am May 23, 2007 9:56am
my guy i love your work. is cool to me .if you can let me in know problem
we all one. you have it in your hand
sunnyfx

2. Gbp-Usd:

- SELL stop @ 1.9982 (or above), TP @ 1.9879
- SELL stop @ 2.0002, TP @ 1.9879
The trend is down, short positions are favored.
I'm short on G-U, from 1.9975 (currently +27) and 1.9995 (currently +47); same TP as above.

3. Aud-Usd:
- SELL stop @ 0.8312 (or above), TP @ 0.8189
- BUY stop @ 0.8189 (or below), TP @ 0.8250
The trend is down, short positions are favored.
I'm short on A-U, from 0.8283 (currently +7) and 0.8275 (currently -1); same TP as above.

4. Nzd-Usd:
- SELL stop @ 0.7383 (or above), TP @ 0.7298
- BUY stop @ 0.7286 (or below), TP @ 0.7334
The trend is down, short positions are favored.

5. Usd-Chf:
- BUY stop @ 1.2129 (or below), TP @ 1.2236
The trend is up, long positions are favored.

6. Usd-Cad:
- SELL stop @ 1.1069 (or above), TP @ 1.0980
The trend is down, short positions are favored; I don't recommend trading this one at the moment.

7. Gbp-Jpy:
- BUY stop @ 238.28 (or below), TP @ 239.50.
The trend is up, long positions are favored.
The bottom seems to be at 238.25 area (however it can go as low as 237.80), so longs from there should have no problem to reach a 100 pips target. In case you decide to take this trade and enter a long at 238.28, DON'T PANIC if you see it going down; 238.00 is another key area, you might enter a long from there too; and if it goes down to 237.80, you can long it again - the more it goes down, the more chances it'll go up again.
We'll see how it goes.

8. Gbp-Chf:
- SELL stop @ 2.4335, TP @ 2.4180[/quote]
  • #128
  • May 27, 2007 8:10am May 27, 2007 8:10am
i'm back, right now i'm analyzing some of the charts and i hope to come up with some posts as soon as i find some spare time.
i was thinking a lot about my system. the indicator/strategy i'm using is similar to bollinger bands; the difference is that i use a regression formula to find out the average price (or the "central tendency") while bollinger bands use a simple moving average. for this reason i think it would be a good idea to have both indicators on the chart.
now, about the timeframes: i usually use 2 charts for every pair i trade. H1 and H4. the more volatile the pair, the smaller the timeframe: for instance, H4 works very good with u-chf, while H1 works good with g-j.
i'm using 2 sets of bollinger bands with the following settings:
- 20 periods + 2 standard deviations, and
- 50 periods + 2 standard deviations.
i think the reason for these is pretty obvious: i need to see 20MA and 50MA on the same chart and how they relate to each other and to my regression line.
i'm not sure if i can come up with some precise rules for entry/exits at this moment. from my experience and what i've seen when backtesting, here are a few guidelines:
- when price breaks the midline, it usually can go up to the outter line;
- if it bounces on the outter line, it usually goes back at least to the midline and can continue to the opposite outter line;
- and, of course, when price escapes from BB it's time to open a trade in the same direction. just be careful when you exit.
play a little bit with the 2 sets of BB i mentioned above, you'll find some interesting coincidences.
if you think you can stand it, plot 50EMA on the chart (i still believe in its importance).
US markets will be closed this moday, so i have some time to play with my charts.
well, see you all soon...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #129
  • May 30, 2007 3:50pm May 30, 2007 3:50pm
Hey Scrat!

Posting this while on transit, I'm still trading while travelling though, and thought I'd let you in on something, which might be useful:

1) We both know that a strong trend defeats the statistics because the numbers are not coming from the same distribution that gave the previous mean (and hence standard dev) values. So trading against a trend should be done only in the condition of very powerful news support with the deviation, and the trades should be watched 24/7 to make sure no news interrupts the move to the middle line.

2) It is true that the regression lines are more "true" than simple moving averages, but the math theory is only proved for the simple mean value, whether we like it or not. For this reason, I think I will be focusing more on my original bands (bollinger) than the regression channel. In the best trades they coincide anyway, so it shouldn't matter very much.

3) I am long GPBJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and have made 400 pips this week so far, as per our usual, mostly on these pairs and AUDUSD. Please fill me in on your results.

4) We need to find the best way to detect a trend change early on, to set realistic TP. Lower highs..etc maybe?


Keep up the great work, I know of NOBODY making more pips than us right now, including the vegas and pure news traders. Arrogance is silly, but a little arrogance is fun! Fingers crossed. We will share many a sugar-coated nut my friend
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #130
  • May 31, 2007 6:46am May 31, 2007 6:46am
hey my friend,
i'm EXTREMELY busy with my work, i barely have time for me...
this is not a good week for trade, although i managed to get myself a nice profit (as usual) - sorry for not having the time to share my trades.
the good thing about not trading is that i got to think a lot of it. long story short, i'm using bollinger bands now on top of my regression indicator. it's working better than before.
hope to come back soon.

Quoting Plutonite
Hey Scrat!

Posting this while on transit, I'm still trading while travelling though, and thought I'd let you in on something, which might be useful:

1) We both know that a strong trend defeats the statistics because the numbers are not coming from the same distribution that gave the previous mean (and hence standard dev) values. So trading against a trend should be done only in the condition of very powerful news support with the deviation, and the trades should be watched 24/7 to make sure no news interrupts the move to the middle line.

2) It is true that the regression lines are more "true" than simple moving averages, but the math theory is only proved for the simple mean value, whether we like it or not. For this reason, I think I will be focusing more on my original bands (bollinger) than the regression channel. In the best trades they coincide anyway, so it shouldn't matter very much.

3) I am long GPBJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and have made 400 pips this week so far, as per our usual, mostly on these pairs and AUDUSD. Please fill me in on your results.

4) We need to find the best way to detect a trend change early on, to set realistic TP. Lower highs..etc maybe?


Keep up the great work, I know of NOBODY making more pips than us right now, including the vegas and pure news traders. Arrogance is silly, but a little arrogance is fun! Fingers crossed. We will share many a sugar-coated nut my friend
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #131
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:19am Jun 1, 2007 12:19am
i have 2 trades so far:

1. short n-u @ 0.7410, tp @ 0.7243
2. short a-u @ current (0.8292), tp@ 0.8168
- stop short @ 0.8325, same tp

i expect to close them sometime next week.
good luck.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #132
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:26pm Jun 7, 2007 7:26pm
i'm still waiting for these trades to close in profit... and although i have enough margin, i don't like to carry negative pips, so i tried another system:

- based on the average, we can set trades above the previous high and below the previous low of the same week/month. it's obvious we'll hit both the high and low of the week/month, but we won't know at that particular moment.
- the problem is when to exit. i thought we can let the trade run and close it with the candle OR break even if the price pushes back to where the trade was open.
- then set up again buy/sell, depending on where the price is... relative to the open of the week/month.

i'm thinking about 2 charts: h4 for the weekly average, and daily for the monthly average.

and let me try my g-u trades for this week:
- h4, (4 pips spread)
- week open: 1.9823
- previous h4 bar: high 1.9824, low 1.9810
- i set up these trades:
* buy stop @ 1.9827 (previous high + half_spread + 1), SL @ 1.9807 (previous low - half_spread - 1)
* sell stop @ 1.9807, SL @ 1.9827
- then one of the trades was activated and i just let it run: buy @ 1.9827 - Trade 1, see above.
- i exited when price hits low-1 of a previous candle: 1.9921.
- then i entered the next trade: short @ 1.9921, SL @ 1.9968 - Trade 2; let it run, same rules: exited when a previous high was hit: 1.9783.
- and so on, if you want to continue, buy @ 1.9783, SL @ 1.9743... i stopped here.

now let's calculate the profit for g-u this week:
- trade 1: 94
- trade 2: 138

total: + 232 pips. (just for the record, weekly average on g-u: 207)

here's the chart with the explanations. http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/8847/gutradesju0.jpg
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-u_trades.jpg Size: 41 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #133
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:36pm Jun 7, 2007 7:36pm
keep up the good work.
  • #134
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:44pm Jun 7, 2007 7:44pm
and same strategy goes for the monthly average: set up a daily chart, and look at a monthly average indicator.
i expect it to be better because it should eliminates some whipsaws.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #135
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:08pm Jun 7, 2007 8:08pm
if someone is testing this, please bring in here the worst cases you find out. that's the only way to adjust the rules and build a profitable strategy.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #136
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:15am Jun 8, 2007 7:15am
and if you were using this new strategy... there would have been another 2 trades:
- long @ 1.9783, SL 1.9741: -41 pips
- short @ 1.9741, SL 1.9783: still going, right now it's @ 1.9663 and i moved my SL @ 1.9690 - if it is hit, i still get 51 pips so overall i'll be +10 pips in profit for today.
nice week.
i'll try to analyze this system next week and see what are the best pairs for the strategy.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #137
  • Jun 17, 2007 3:05pm Jun 17, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting Scrat
I forgot to mention about the returns: I ran a backtest on this method and got more than 5000 pips for 2 weeks. Unbelievable, right? I thought so too.
Then I started to use it live for the next 2 weeks, but I closed all my trades halfway through (and sometimes even earlier - I just couldn't trust my indicators): 400+ pips for the last week, and 350+ for this week (and it's only Wednesday). I could have got more than double.
Don't ask me about the system/method... I'm not gonna say anything until I have consistent returns for about a year. After that, I'll think about it.
Oh, and something that I think it's worth being mentioned: for the last 2 weeks I didn't have ANY losing trade. This is far better than any other method I've used before.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ok - give me a call in about 12 months time please - lol

I may have missed it: which time frames do you use??
  • #138
  • Edited 8:10pm Jul 1, 2007 8:06pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting amylase

Just my two cents. I'm also a newbie btw, so don't take my words too seriously.





I do believe people can achieve great returns without using stop loss, but chances are at some point in their trading career, they are going to blow up their account in just one week. no need to elaborate on that.


your live trades looks good to me if you have large SL (you have none even better).


If a trader is well capitalized and uses low leverage, the account will not blow up in one week.....I also do not use stop losses, though I don't trade at 100:1 , or 200:1 or even 20:1 leverage......use of High leverage is a brokers' best friend, or else they'd not offer it. Think about this, why do they never seem to offer a $300 micro mini lot demo????? Most are 50k, a few are 10k...Never heard of one for $300!!

P.S. - should have mentioned that the trader should also KNOW how to trade
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #139
  • Jul 2, 2007 3:16pm Jul 2, 2007 3:16pm
Quoting Scrat
and if you were using this new strategy... there would have been another 2 trades:
- long @ 1.9783, SL 1.9741: -41 pips
- short @ 1.9741, SL 1.9783: still going, right now it's @ 1.9663 and i moved my SL @ 1.9690 - if it is hit, i still get 51 pips so overall i'll be +10 pips in profit for today.
nice week.
i'll try to analyze this system next week and see what are the best pairs for the strategy.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Which NEW strategy are you talking about, please?
Did I overread something (hopefully - lol).
Thankx
Ch.
  • #140
  • Aug 24, 2007 4:53pm Aug 24, 2007 4:53pm
Hello Scrat,
Will this thread be updated again? Was your system still profitable these last months?
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