how can we guess about pairs??? | Forex Factory

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how can we guess about pairs???

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 15, 2007 1:43pm Jun 15, 2007 1:43pm
i wanted to know that how can we guess that which pair will up or down to see the chart or any other way please tell me i am confused how i can gain and how can i guess that this will be up/down
??
  • #2
  • Jun 15, 2007 1:51pm Jun 15, 2007 1:51pm
No one can know the future... If you are asking how does one trade? Well Now that is to big a topic for this thread.
  • #3
  • Jun 15, 2007 2:48pm Jun 15, 2007 2:48pm
Quoting smjones
No one can know the future... If you are asking how does one trade? Well Now that is to big a topic for this thread.
i mean is that how can all guess and how they get that when market will up and when down i mean how they look charts and how they guess ???
  • #4
  • Jun 15, 2007 3:18pm Jun 15, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting ubaidahsan
i mean is that how can all guess and how they get that when market will up and when down i mean how they look charts and how they guess ???
It's not about guessing, it's about probabilities.

Things like a continuing trend, price bouncing of a support or resistance.

Sounds like you are new so if your are interested in learning I would suggest reading the sticky threads at the top of the beginner section or checking out a good tutorial site like babypips dot com.
  • #5
  • Jun 15, 2007 10:59pm Jun 15, 2007 10:59pm
isn't it fundamental way? better stuff it with all news that float around the world.
  • #6
  • Jun 16, 2007 11:33am Jun 16, 2007 11:33am
Quoting Gwan
isn't it fundamental way? better stuff it with all news that float around the world.
thanks for all of your support and i am already in babypips and learning but i didn't see anywhere about up/down that is why i ask and i know about event and news but wanted to ask that how can v guess the signals i mean that i note that when event posted so in few events when you click on blue icon so here something different but some time it is same so what is that and how we can read signals and how can v understand

??please explain
  • #7
  • Jun 16, 2007 12:33pm Jun 16, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting willf
It's not about guessing, it's about probabilities.

Things like a continuing trend, price bouncing of a support or resistance.

Sounds like you are new so if your are interested in learning I would suggest reading the sticky threads at the top of the beginner section or checking out a good tutorial site like babypips dot com.

I think it's about guessing. Every trade is a guess unless you can cover the other side of it; only then could you certainly pinpoint the certainty of an event occuring given a level of confidence.

Speculating in the markets involves a whole lot of guessing willf. It isn't the same as physics.
  • #8
  • Jun 16, 2007 5:18pm Jun 16, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting dunningduke
I think it's about guessing. Every trade is a guess unless you can cover the other side of it; only then could you certainly pinpoint the certainty of an event occuring given a level of confidence.

Speculating in the markets involves a whole lot of guessing willf. It isn't the same as physics.
That's why it's called probability not certainty.

Definition:

Probability: The likelihood that a given event will occur.
Guess: To assume, presume, or assert without sufficient information.

I trade probabilities based on facts. If I was to guess then that would be just gambling.
  • #9
  • Jun 16, 2007 11:49pm Jun 16, 2007 11:49pm
Quoting willf
...

I trade probabilities based on facts. If I was to guess then that would be just gambling.
OK. You are distorting what I posted; but at any rate, how do you measure the probabilities you trade from? from what facts? how do you translate your facts into objective values? or is it subjective? because then, it would be speculation or guessing.
  • #10
  • Jun 17, 2007 1:58am Jun 17, 2007 1:58am
Quoting willf
That's why it's called probability not certainty.

Definition:

Probability: The likelihood that a given event will occur.
Guess: To assume, presume, or assert without sufficient information.

I trade probabilities based on facts. If I was to guess then that would be just gambling.
The likelihood that a given event will occur is nothing more than a traders subjective opinion, to have a bias as to will the trend continue, or will price bounce off support or resistance, a trader has to assume or presume that something might happen. Note that assume and presume are included in the definition of Guess.

In between clicking your mouse to enter and exit a trade, you are at the mercy of the markets, all historical "facts" mean nothing. The markets can and do go anywhere, anytime.I believe 95% of Retail trades are taken on a "Best Guess" scenario, or if you like Best probability Guess.
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #11
  • Jun 17, 2007 6:25am Jun 17, 2007 6:25am
Which is exactly the reason as of why it's so important to search for entries ONLY in clearly trending markets. It's like sailing with the wind on your back, or swimming downstream. By trading in the direction of a clear trend, you're simply stacking positive statistical odds into your position.

In my opinion, trend identification should be the "lesson #1" of any trading learning process.
  • #12
  • Jun 17, 2007 10:20am Jun 17, 2007 10:20am
Quoting WTB
Which is exactly the reason as of why it's so important to search for entries ONLY in clearly trending markets. It's like sailing with the wind on your back, or swimming downstream. By trading in the direction of a clear trend, you're simply stacking positive statistical odds into your position.

In my opinion, trend identification should be the "lesson #1" of any trading learning process.
I agree. a few weeks back, why would someone have traded the pound or euro when the canadian was strongly trending. If one learns to identify trending markets, irrelevant of what's going on fundamentally, he or she can make bucks. Especially when one doesn't read the bull $%it analysis (or worse, F'ed up indicators) and just listens to price.
However, the trend does end...what happens when you enter at the end of a trend? are you still sailing with the wind? I am not expecting an answer; I know the answer...I am just making a point.
  • #13
  • Jun 17, 2007 9:04pm Jun 17, 2007 9:04pm
i think i ever found someone say about trend within trend
like cad is about oil, oil ussualy always goes up and so does cad
but then usd as it pair goes up to, now we can consider this is time for range ... (just an expired example)
  • #14
  • Last Post: Jun 17, 2007 10:12pm Jun 17, 2007 10:12pm
In my opinion, it's about trying to guess what most people in the market think. Are they going to buy on this level or sell ? Will they take profit here ?
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