USDCAD trend reversal?

good Quickdraw

I do not favor any long now, especially not break trend ,better wait break out it.

short at 680, stop 90

actually, 1.0742 seems more appropriate as a SL. look at the daily chart, you'll see why.

well well well. look what the cat dragged in. the great master cesarnc himself.

good position.

Aye you maybe right, was trying for a bounce off this TL.

Edit: sl adjusted 695 above the 1h 365ema

what's a good sl for this?

Going to test 1.09xx last year's low in 1-2 months before resuming downtrend, anyone?

agreed. valid price level.

if indeed this is a retrace, then 1.0900 is a very good number.

when i opened it, 1.0601. right now have no idea. 1.0665 maybe?

ok.

Usd/ Cad

All eyes on the yellow Line ! ..................

Will price price above it ? ......Will price break 0730 ?............
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- a Tripple Bottom Formation may be upon us ?

Next week should be interesting ................

pg 2 ........................

Not shaping up, out until next week.

Anyone know what spurred that sharp 45-pip spike around 11:20am EST? It didn't appear to be news-driven nor anything important technically..

Don't see it picking up till next week either..

ok, it's been a while and I feel I want to throw my 2 cents in boiling pot.

I'm speaking mainly from an Elliott Wave point of view. And from that view we clearly have seen a dosey of an impulse wave down. Elliott Wave patterns are fractals, patterns inside of patterns, ect. With a very clear five wave impulse wave down, the main question right now is??? Are we at the end of the 5 wave of the 5 wave impulse series down??? If we are and its highly probable we are, then we will most likely correct up to a probable range (based a number statistics) somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.0800 to the 1.1200 range and this will probably happen by the end of the year, but could happen much sooner or extend into 2008.

So while I think we have a high probability of heading up for a correction to the area mentioned above, following that we should be heading down in another 5 wave pattern south, but we'll know more of course as the story unfolds. The fundamentals of the countries of the countries seem to support that theory at least right now but as we all know, stay flexible and keep your biases as nuetral as possible.

Short term however, we seem to be in a very complex corrective pattern or more probable a series of corrective patterns. Some wave counts take us below the bottom, some don't. So regardless, it looks like we'll be chopping wood for a while on this one, but I'm finding several ways to play this for short term swings.

This pair on the hourly seems to be respecting the 200 ema and also the rsi, bollinger bands are also extremely usefull in this type of choppy markets. So watch this and see if you can find some great entries, I'll leave the exits to you. Watch bollinger bands for a nice tight horizonal tunnel, like the one that started on 6/14 at about 7:00am on the 1 hour chart. When ever you see this; you know you'll always see a breakout one way or the other following, it's inevitable. If you follow the pattern, you'll see that while in the tunnel, the candles were touching the top of the tunnel, the MACD gently sloped up and then candles started to move to the bottom of the tunnel for the breakdown. If you were looking at the DMI indicator, you would also see a negative cross as well. Now if you look back at how small the candles were at the top of the tunnel, they clearly were small and looking very toppy. If you watch this pair, you see this pattern over and over and in the choppy correction that (I think) we'll be in for a while, you could trade this setup up/down for quite a while and just keep pickin bananas here.

A few more clues, on the daily, the hourly and the 15 minute charts, hammer candles, hanging man (inverted hammers at the top of a rally), tweezers (aka railroad tracks) and morning/evening stars are very telling on this pair. Especially watch for hammers, hanging man and tweezers. These have been so accurate, you could ALMOST trade off of these alone.

One last thing, the daily candle from Friday has a very long tail, this is a very bullish sign. We seem to have great support in the 1.0550 to 1.0600 range. If you back the truck up and look at the weekly candles, you start to see a very obvious picture, very close to a morning star but not yet. We do have a clear bull candle that followed on obvious doji. Again, this supports the theory of a correction up, but it will not be a straight line and you will have many opportunities to play both sides of this fence. Back the truck up a little more and what do you see? Well we are only two weeks into the month, but right now, it looks like a hammer, a sludge hammer to me!

Looking at the larger candles will generally always light your path.

Good trading, WillyT

Ok , Willy

Well said ...........
Now see here -- Usd/Cad
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( Here's a Visual Summary ) Long- Term

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My position is Long from 1.0609 tp 1.10

Thanks for the post. Great use of tools.