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The Swamp

  • #113,641
  • Dec 7, 2023 9:45am Dec 7, 2023 9:45am
Quoting FT.Trader
usdjpy creating a headwind for currencies equities and commodities imo
nekkei futures down -2.53%
  • #113,642
  • Dec 7, 2023 10:07am Dec 7, 2023 10:07am
last h close being a 6h close was above 0873.4. PA is still below the 4h 200 ema. It closes in 2 hs.
The 6h also closed above the day and 12h h.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,643
  • Dec 7, 2023 10:09am Dec 7, 2023 10:09am
fwiw
today is the last trading day of the dec 2023 euro bund contract
i beleive that last trade is the at the london close
if we move higher that might be the reason
  • #113,644
  • Dec 7, 2023 10:50am Dec 7, 2023 10:50am
Quoting FT.Trader
fwiw today is the last trading day of the dec 2023 euro bund contract i beleive that last trade is the at the london close if we move higher that might be the reason
12h trend, 200 day etc. May be the reason it atm is unable to fall. If unable to fall. The other options are sideways, or bounce.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,645
  • Dec 7, 2023 11:19am Dec 7, 2023 11:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 12h trend, 200 day etc. May be the reason it atm is unable to fall. If unable to fall. The other options are sideways, or bounce.
i have delayed euro bund data and i looked it up
last trade was 6am et
i wouldn't buy myself until i saw the europeans close in a more positive manner
interesting because usd usually strenghtens before nfp
  • #113,646
  • Dec 7, 2023 11:48am Dec 7, 2023 11:48am
Out and flat 0814
  • #113,647
  • Dec 7, 2023 11:51am Dec 7, 2023 11:51am
wti is falling again today
i think we are close to a multi month seasonal low
today could be the day
watching
  • #113,648
  • Dec 7, 2023 1:16pm Dec 7, 2023 1:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 12h trend, 200 day etc. May be the reason it atm is unable to fall. If unable to fall. The other options are sideways, or bounce.
you are probably right
i actually was not profitable trading the euro last month
i did quite well trading wti
i'm going back to the sidelines and watch for a while
  • #113,649
  • Dec 7, 2023 1:45pm Dec 7, 2023 1:45pm
Quoting FT.Trader
wti is falling again today i think we are close to a multi month seasonal low today could be the day watching
doing some buying here wti 69.50 jan 24
  • #113,650
  • Dec 7, 2023 11:13pm Dec 7, 2023 11:13pm
Quoting Ferna
has trading been harder lately? Feels like missing liquidity, instead they pumping money into crypto and gold. this Jp Morgan guy compain about crypto even due he got his own blockchain tech and is pro CBDC. Flashcrash today with JPY, what could have tipped me off? Bonds, yield differentials?
i've been saying that for a while now
with the fed tightening m1 money supply, there is less new money available to go into the financial markets
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

the financial markets will trade more likethey did from 2001-2008 before QE than they did from 2008-2023
hope this helps

the USDJPY has been a good liquidity guage also
with the strengthening of USDJPY implies more cash available or a tailwind for risk assets
the weakening of USDJPY implies a headwind for risk assets
  • #113,651
  • Dec 7, 2023 11:19pm Dec 7, 2023 11:19pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} i've been saying that for a while now with the fed tightening m1 money supply, there is less new money available to go into the financial markets https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL the financial markets will trade more likethey did from 2001-2008 before QE than they did from 2008-2023 hope this helps the USDJPY has been a good liquidity guage also with the strengthening of USDJPY implies more cash available or a tailwind for risk assets the weakening of USDJPY implies a headwind for risk assets
M1 data is released monthly on the 4 teusday at 3pm et
  • #113,652
  • Dec 8, 2023 5:19am Dec 8, 2023 5:19am
No day, 12h, 6h close above 0798. The 4h did, but unable to get above the fib. Rejected and the follower back under 0798. Sideways yesterday. Bears stuck above the 200s.. Bulls unable to get a foothold.
Yesterday The 200s held pa up. The same may still happen 097x. Back to the 200s from below later. But later if below, they could resist..
NFP may decide. If a bad number, this 200s support could bring the rise to test 0908/13/42.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,653
  • Dec 8, 2023 5:29am Dec 8, 2023 5:29am
News in 2 hs
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,654
  • Edited 6:15am Dec 8, 2023 5:50am | Edited 6:15am
If your wondering where the last 6h, 12h closed. The closes above their perspective levels. The 1-4h pa closed below theirs.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,655
  • Dec 8, 2023 6:10am Dec 8, 2023 6:10am
Inserted Video

The last local girl was Britney Spears. Lainey Wilson seems to be hitting the charts now.
Inserted Video
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,656
  • Dec 8, 2023 6:24am Dec 8, 2023 6:24am
The 1h is falling at 0837, for reference. PA is compressing into a range until a breakout North or South. The high a few weeks back is the week 200ish. It tested the day yesterday.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,657
  • Dec 8, 2023 7:20am Dec 8, 2023 7:20am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} doing some buying here wti 69.50 jan 24
flat before nfp 70.72
  • #113,658
  • Dec 8, 2023 7:22am Dec 8, 2023 7:22am
8 min NFP
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  • #113,659
  • Dec 8, 2023 7:49am Dec 8, 2023 7:49am
6h closes in 2h 15 min (0774.0) 4h in 15 min (0797). Back above 0798 is likely bullish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,660
  • Dec 8, 2023 8:37am Dec 8, 2023 8:37am
I added a 8h in magenta. It closed the 8h below.
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