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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,181
  • Dec 3, 2023 12:58pm Dec 3, 2023 12:58pm
money I bet you are a Bollinger Band fan - here's the man himself, from just a few days ago....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,182
  • Dec 3, 2023 5:38pm Dec 3, 2023 5:38pm
watching with interest 4,600 in the coming days, beyond that, 4,650. South, a big gap to fill below 4,460. Need maybe a bear reaction to data this week to make that.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,183
  • Dec 4, 2023 3:51am Dec 4, 2023 3:51am
I need to paper trade this one, looks intriguing....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,184
  • Dec 4, 2023 6:12am Dec 4, 2023 6:12am
coming into a consequential week, mainly Friday's NFP....I think risk is mostly to thee downside for the Russell and the Nasdaq. I'm not making any predictions, just want to set up for a big move Friday to Monday....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,185
  • Dec 4, 2023 6:17am Dec 4, 2023 6:17am
upside momo in the naz seems constrained, but I'd still hedge the call diag tail....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,186
  • Dec 4, 2023 10:01am Dec 4, 2023 10:01am
Out of the following:

KKR Dec15 75 PUT at $1.95 up from $1.50

Dropped nicely, but started going up right away, so I took the money and ran. Could have gotten another $0.15 but waited too long. Still nice spending money.
  • #19,187
  • Dec 4, 2023 10:12am Dec 4, 2023 10:12am
In the following:

DIA Dec8 361 PUT at $1.10

Do now I have the following active DIA trades:

DIA Dec8 357 PUT at $1.52

DIA Dec8 362 PUT at $1.495

DIA Dec8 361 PUT at $1.10

I would not be surprised if we see DIA down around 356 level by the end of the week.
  • #19,188
  • Dec 4, 2023 1:44pm Dec 4, 2023 1:44pm
Quoting The Fool
coming into a consequential week, mainly Friday's NFP....I think risk is mostly to thee downside for the Russell and the Nasdaq. I'm not making any predictions, just want to set up for a big move Friday to Monday....
got in the RUT Dec8/11 call cldrs @ 1940, $1.10 debit. RUT diverging from other indices and that will continue so long as the Goldilocks dream is alive. Major test will be NFP. I will look for a corresponding put side spread if we go up a bunch in the next 2 days. It's gonna be tough to keep the RUT down though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,189
  • Dec 4, 2023 9:57pm Dec 4, 2023 9:57pm
Quoting The Fool
money I bet you are a Bollinger Band fan - here's the man himself, from just a few days ago....
I do believe they add value and are definitely on my charts, but I only use them for next level support/resistance levels. I have the 5EMA and 10 EMA on my charts, and the mid-BB is roughly the 20EMA. I seldom use the upper and lower BBs for much other than additional support/resistance levels.

But on my currency charts, I use the BBs a lot more. Like when the entire body of a candle falls outside the lower or upper BB, I watch the next candle for an entry, especially on the higher time frames. I have found in currency trading, BBs kind of act like a corral, and the candles always want to get back inside the corral. Or, when price comes from the upper-BB down to the lower-BB, it tends to ride the lower-BB down like a slippery slope.

For options, though, just support/resistance levels.
  • #19,190
  • Dec 5, 2023 9:48am Dec 5, 2023 9:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}got in the RUT Dec8/11 call cldrs @ 1940, $1.10 debit. RUT diverging from other indices and that will continue so long as the Goldilocks dream is alive. Major test will be NFP. I will look for a corresponding put side spread if we go up a bunch in the next 2 days. It's gonna be tough to keep the RUT down though....
...ADDED to call spread, net debit now 90c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,191
  • Dec 5, 2023 3:02pm Dec 5, 2023 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}got in the RUT Dec8/11 call cldrs @ 1940, $1.10 debit. RUT diverging from other indices and that will continue so long as the Goldilocks dream is alive. Major test will be NFP. I will look for a corresponding put side spread if we go up a bunch in the next 2 days. It's gonna be tough to keep the RUT down though....
...no put side entry yet....RUT still diverging from the other indices. Maybe some big data will move everything together this week? It seems the only thing that could be pure bullish is a Goldilocks NFP. Read too high and it's fear the Fed, read too low & it's fear a recession.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,192
  • Dec 5, 2023 3:27pm Dec 5, 2023 3:27pm
/ES chart looks bull flaggy to me & expect another pissin match at 4,600. I will take some off the SPX diagonal if we get there Thursday, but I'll hold out something for Friday also
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,193
  • Dec 5, 2023 5:07pm Dec 5, 2023 5:07pm
looking for tech to lead the way north

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,194
  • Dec 5, 2023 11:00pm Dec 5, 2023 11:00pm
Quoting The Fool
I need to paper trade this one, looks intriguing....
....pairing a 0dte short straddle with a 30-day long strangle is something I would have never thought of. I'm always looking for cheap entries, and as shown, just a one lot of this in SPX will cost >$1,200. But the very high POP is intriguing, if true, so I will trade them to see how to manage the daily rolls...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,195
  • Dec 7, 2023 12:25pm Dec 7, 2023 12:25pm
Quoting The Fool
looking for tech to lead the way north {image}
Qs $395 calendar in for 17c. out for 39c. I'm cashing some things out b4 the NFP, others will ride....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,196
  • Dec 7, 2023 2:26pm Dec 7, 2023 2:26pm
Quoting The Fool
/ES chart looks bull flaggy to me & expect another pissin match at 4,600. I will take some off the SPX diagonal if we get there Thursday, but I'll hold out something for Friday also
...didn't take off anything but added an XSP Dec08 462/465/468 call fly to protect the diagonal tail. Also have SPX calendar puts Dec08/11 @ 4,500 for about 95c debit. All that's left to do now is make the popcorn...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,197
  • Dec 8, 2023 10:26am Dec 8, 2023 10:26am
Out of the following:

NDAQ Dec15 55 PUT at $1.80 up from $0.85

DXCM Dec8 112 Put at $0.00 down from $1.05

DIA Dec8 357 PUT at $0.00 down from $1.52
  • #19,198
  • Dec 8, 2023 1:39pm Dec 8, 2023 1:39pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Out of the following: NDAQ Dec15 55 PUT at $1.80 up from $0.85 DXCM Dec8 112 Put at $0.00 down from $1.05 DIA Dec8 357 PUT at $0.00 down from $1.52
Been hard times for bears. But bulls not faring too great either, in the last 17 td's the SnP has ground north a mere 100 pts. Good action for selling options, but premium has dried up. I'd be better off picking up cans....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,199
  • Edited 1:58pm Dec 9, 2023 1:45pm | Edited 1:58pm
bull momentum petering out, with range of last 3 weekly spoos bars around 60 pts only. Overdue for a pullback, so I will sell the 41-day SPX call vert @ 4750/4775 for $5.45 credit and buy the Dec15 AM/PM 4,490 put calendar for 50c. Interesting week ahead, with CPI Tues and FOMC Wed...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,200
  • Dec 11, 2023 11:13pm Dec 11, 2023 11:13pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} So it isn't about the money at all..... It's about this time of year being when people have more time off. I've missed a few day trips with the family, overnight trips with some friends, and hanging out with people that took the week of Thanksgiving off. Since most of the people my age are pretty senior in their positions at work, they usually probably take most of December off, and I just want to hang out while they can....it is nice to spend time with friends and family without having to worry if I'll make it back before the close or...
All that being said, I think you need some alone time for your mental health, too! Too much friends and family can drive you crazy just as fast....so I'm taking a few days off from that and getting back on my computer where at least the stress is somewhat enjoyable...

I'm gonna be looking at the following in the morning (in that order), based on what premarket futures are doing:

DFS Dec22 101 PUT at $0.90 or better

MDC Jan19 49 PUT at $1.55 or better

SWKS Dec22 106 PUT at $1.60 or better

There are several that look good, but they are pricey in the $2-$3 range, with a couple in the $4 range. They will make money but expensive to buy 10+ contracts.
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