Trading the Cable swings via averages

Maybe due to my broker has open/close price on H4 and Daily different from your broker, Sir.
Below are 2 charts of 2 brokers fyr. The second one is the same as your chart.

Yes, this is a problem with charts from 4 hour and beyond. Brokers do close at differing times and in a volatile situation this could be a big difference.

As an aside I do have a new one on the 4 hour which has made the 50% level of D.

Price on the 1 hour just hit the D target from the 6th Nov.


That was a bit long winded hey!

See how those HD's came in handy again for 30 pips.



Well worth keeping an eye out for.

Grab some pips once Frankurt open... +20 pips. The Hidden Div provides good profit as usual.

Although yesterday was in choppy time, the HD played a big part to get profitable entry.

Yes, and we had a nice HD on the 4 hour also with a nice yield back to the EMA.

I was expecting a new ABCD but alas that hasn't happened yet.


Trading is not so difficult when we determine what is happening on the chart and trade accordingly with good risk management.

Well, there we go, we got the ABCD when I went to bed.

Looks like price is heading for the 4H D target. It would be well in bear divergence if it makes it.

My 4H looks like this at the moment...



We can see the bear div at the top, but it was the HD's that produced the better moves.

Short of the 4H giving us any more entry signals we have to resort to trading below the EMA we are short. The one break above the EMA failed to make the HH.

The daily has also been in bear div and is heading towards the EMA which can now be see on the 4H as the Magenta EMA at the bottom of the chart.

Nice bolt down on the 4H to the D!...Perfecto as Shakira would say.



And it all started from a bearish HD at the very top.

Thanks Alan for everything about rsi .

On friday, Price was run like a text book:
Swing low EMA H1 = 1.25038:
D target H4:
EMA26 Daily:

80+ pips in total was better than expected!

You will recall I said the daily was in bear div so we expect it to run to the EMA.

Trouble with these trades is they take so long. I was in the trade for over 100 hours with my stop sitting at BE. It either makes it or it doesn't. Can't sit around waiting for it all day. I only had $2 a pip riding on it.

Normally I would have traded the 1H like you say down to the EMA average swing low, again perfecto.

You seem to be getting the hang of this now, great stuff keep it up.

This was the 1H for those interested...


It doesn't get any clearer than this. Failure at the red swing high average means the EMA will test the opposite side (Green) and price will make the next level (Green), Where the daily average is coming into view (Blue).

With the 4H ABCD's we can observe a few lessons...

When the 4H EMA is above the daily EMA price does not go to the D1 level

When the 4H EMA is below the daily EMA price does not go to the D level.

There are always some exceptions to this rule, but they are rare.

We need to keep an eye on the relationship of the 4H EMA and the daily EMA. When rollovers begin because this is where the exception is most likely to happen.



I always draw in the EMA swing highs and lows for future potential targets. RED for tops and GREEN for bottoms. Then I take them off when one average breaks another.

Now if we can determine the direction on the 4H we can trade that direction via signals on the lower time frames.

Notice on the 4H the number of times it goes to the 50% level of the wrong direction. A great ZOO level for consideration.

We can also look at the simple stuff of price making HH's and HL's in an uptrend or LL's and LH's in a downtrend.

Can any of you determine when the B to A occurs or the A to B if a downtrend.

I have looked at many trading systems/methods but cannot find anything even close to solving this.

yo boss, are we heading to Elliot wave theory. Looks complicated. Not getting much screen time just lately. Keep up the good work

A

The only Elliot wave I would be interested in is where Billy waves goodbye to his family on his way to the school of ballet.

Waves are easy to see in hindsight because we can pick and choose from a variety of past patterns to find those that suite our narrative. However, there are so many rules for Elliot waves it boils down to just guessing anyway.

This is true for all patterns and many people make good money from selling these ideas either in book form, conventions or classes. Check online there are dozens of them pushing the next best thing. The big secret is out. You are a loser because of XYZ and should be doing this.

It seems everyone has a different interpretation of what the charts are saying. If it works for them then fine, I'm not here to say someone is right or wrong. I just express what works for me and continues to do so for a long time now.

I have quite a few books on trading along with many PDFs and not a single bit of it works for me, but it may well do for the writers.

I specialize in my methods for finding entries, targets and stops.

All this does not mean I don't listen to what others say, I study stuff all the time looking to find things that may be made into an addition to my method rather than change the entire thing. To me the EMA is gold, the RSI is silver, and patience is bronze.

Just quick scalpping until now...
edit 1: hmm, get out too soon, better next time I should stay calm to let price run to the target h4