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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,161
  • Nov 30, 2023 10:53am Nov 30, 2023 10:53am
In the following:

DIA Dec8 357 PUT at $1.52
  • #19,162
  • Nov 30, 2023 11:36am Nov 30, 2023 11:36am
I'll be looking at the following as potential plays before the close today:

CE Dec15 135 PUT

KKR Dec8/15 74/75 PUT

NTAP Dec15 90 PUT

PVH Dec15 95 PUT
  • #19,163
  • Nov 30, 2023 2:56pm Nov 30, 2023 2:56pm
In the following:

KKR Dec15 75 PUT at $1.50

NTAP Dec15 91 PUT at $1.50
  • #19,164
  • Nov 30, 2023 3:05pm Nov 30, 2023 3:05pm
Added to the following after the bell:

DIA Dec8 357 PUT at $1.13, bringing the average down to 1.325
  • #19,165
  • Nov 30, 2023 5:58pm Nov 30, 2023 5:58pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Added to the following after the bell: DIA Dec8 357 PUT at $1.13, bringing the average down to 1.325
...was a frustrating day to watch DIA puts, I bet. For most of the day the Dow was up over 1%, while SnP & Russell were red....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,166
  • Nov 30, 2023 9:45pm Nov 30, 2023 9:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...was a frustrating day to watch DIA puts, I bet. For most of the day the Dow was up over 1%, while SnP & Russell were red....
It was very frustrating! DIA looks great for a drop, and I thought that drop would start today. I certainly didn't expect today's jump up like it had. I expect tomorrow's 354 Puts to be a total loss, but I should more than make up for them on the Dec8 357 Puts....if things act normal, anyway. The DOW drug my Dec1 Puts right along with it. They will still come down, it just extended the chart out, but unless we get a big down day tomorrow, tomorrow's DIA and BURL and DXCM Puts will be...well, kaput.

But out of the last 33 completed trades, I've had 5 losers (QCOM and DHI) and most likely tomorrow's DIA and maybe tomorrow's BURL/DXCM. QCOM and DHI just didn't play well with others, and sometimes you have that, and tomorrow's Puts were just boats lifted by the rising tide of the markets, and sometimes you have that, too. I'll look at them all and see if there was anything that signaled them not moving as expected, maybe some news or analyst here or there, but I think it was just one of those things. As far as the money lost, just my VEEV trade more than covers all the losses combined, even tomorrow's if they happen, so financially it was barely a blip on the screen, I just want to profit/loss ratio as high as possible.

So as frustrating as it is, it's like fishing: sometimes you break a line and lose a fish. But knowing it doesn't happen that often, you just tie on another lure and make another cast....
  • #19,167
  • Dec 1, 2023 1:07am Dec 1, 2023 1:07am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} it's like fishing: sometimes you break a line and lose a fish. But knowing it doesn't happen that often, you just tie on another lure and make another cast....
Yep, always another fish that'll bite. I am bullish generally for December, but I think it'll be a tough slog. My target high for Dec is SnP 4,650-4,700, probably make or break to get that in the next 2 weeks. As the soft landing dreams starts to evaporate in early 2024, I could see us getting another 10% pullback. Really, though, my crystal ball only works for a 2 week horizon max, and then only sometimes....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,168
  • Dec 1, 2023 3:46am Dec 1, 2023 3:46am
In any case, the Japanese yen will have no value from this year to the next few years due to its low interest rates.
Even if interest rates in other countries fall, they will still be much higher than the Japanese yen. With the Japanese yen's wages not rising for 30 years, Japan's debt-ridden nation, and its declining birthrate, the value of Japan will continue to decline.
  • #19,169
  • Dec 1, 2023 10:45am Dec 1, 2023 10:45am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Is it possible you have put this post in the wrong thread?
sorry. It was a post from jpy/USD.
  • #19,170
  • Dec 1, 2023 12:01pm Dec 1, 2023 12:01pm
in this XSP calendar for 14c, out now for 50c. I had a pile of these and left just a few to run. SPX weekly exmove is 4,606, & the call wall at 4,600 could be hard to break down today. So I grabbed the solid double.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,171
  • Dec 1, 2023 12:59pm Dec 1, 2023 12:59pm
Well, all my Dec1 Puts look finished today (BURL/DXCM/DIA) as I figured. Now, I didn't figure BURL would shoot up $6+ for pretty much no reason, but it didn't matter to my trade anyway.

But, I did get into the following:

DIA Dec8 362 PUT at $1.495

The DIA chart looks set to drop like a rock (at least in options terms). Weekly chart show five big green candles in a row...can't find when it did that but one time this year, and that was the end of January and they were smaller candles. So I got some to go with my Dec8 357 Puts.
  • #19,172
  • Dec 1, 2023 1:06pm Dec 1, 2023 1:06pm
SPY is hitting a double top today and looks set to drop like DIA, but I like to play SPY near or in the money, and that would just have too many trades over $1.00. I'm doing a test for a quarter to play a little farther out of the money and get them cheaper and more of them and see if I have a better bottom line than playing closer/in the money.

Like DIA Dec8 PUTS: right now the 360 PUTS are ~$1.00 whereas the 363 PUTS are ~$2.00. Both will make money if DIA drops. Naturally, the 363 will make more because it started in the money, but you can buy twice as many 360 PUTs, which will probably wind up making more. Since I am expecting DIA to drop next week, I will track this and post the results.
  • #19,173
  • Dec 1, 2023 2:10pm Dec 1, 2023 2:10pm
Quoting moneymaker2
DIA chart looks set to drop like a rock (at least in options terms). Weekly chart show five big green candles in a row...can't find when it did that but one time this year, and that was the end of January and they were smaller candles. So I got some to go with my Dec8 357 Puts.
....just a massive Fed relief rally since the last CPI. Marry that with seasonalality influence and we get a melt-up. Look at the Russell. Up 2.5% today alone on (arguably) a few dovish words from JPow.

The Russel is stuffed with smallcap dogs that live & die on their ability to borrow money, so it swings with the interest rates pretty hard.

I think the best place for a bear in the next few weeks will be Nasdaq. There should be a lot coming off there after a huge run up thru 2023, an it also looks pretty sluggish for any kind of bull move.

Otherwise, I have SPX diagonals for Dec 8/11, 4640/4650, and same date SPX 4450 put calendars. I'll be shooting 1dte and 0dte credit spreads and flys til Friday next, hoping for some movement. Markets have been awfully dull, today notwithstanding...

Have a nice weekend, money....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,174
  • Dec 1, 2023 4:32pm Dec 1, 2023 4:32pm
Thanks, TF, you have a good one, too.

I was thinking earlier today I think I might just play with the trades I have open now and take the rest of December off to just chill. Heck, it will be warm enough to do some yard work until nearly Christmas, so I can get a jump start on the spring stuff.

I might look at getting into some stuff if it looks really good, or maybe right at the end of December, but I'm thinking just stick with the trades I have open. One thing about going farther out of the money is you have a lot more trades available, and that can get pretty time consuming monitoring all of them, and it gets hectic enough around the holidays here as it is.

I say all that, but I know I'll be looking every day before the open and right before the close....I just like this stuff too much not to do that!
  • #19,175
  • Dec 2, 2023 8:05am Dec 2, 2023 8:05am
Quoting moneymaker2
I was thinking earlier today I think I might just play with the trades I have open now and take the rest of December off to just chill.
I think I feel you, bro. Without reading too much into your situation, I'll tell you this:

When you have been losing more than usual, or a lot, it's never a bad idea to withdraw for a while. Even if you're not doing that bad, taking a break from trading on a regular basis is healthy. A week off without thinking about the markets for a single second can work wonders for your perspective on things and for your mental health.

I have not had a great year - I might do ok if December goes well, but I'm probably not gonna beat the indices. This has been a bitter pill after having huge success in 2022. 2023 has been a tough year to trade, I think, but I can't blame the market for my poor performance. It's all on me. Many of the Spring/Summer months I should not have been trading in anything but the smallest size. I had several health issues, in the hospital a few times, etc, I won't bore you. But I was not in the best condition, to say the least. I would've been better off sitting out about 2/3 of the year.

Things are looking up, though. I'm healthier. Accounts have been repaired somewhat in the last couple months. I'm not giving up. I am humbler, though, and that's a good thing, especially for me. I am going to trade a lot smarter in 2024.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,176
  • Dec 2, 2023 12:20pm Dec 2, 2023 12:20pm
shown is what I have for the swing trade, coming Friday expiry. I put this on >1 week ago, noted these diagonals need longer duration to go on for a credit when iv's have cratered. The call diag went on for 25c credit. I'd love to see a good pullback in the coming week, so the puts could profit well. The put calendar will be around 4550 late in the week.

Showing P/L state @ Dec07, when I will be looking to exit. Most likely won't want to hold through the NFP.

I might roll up the call diagonal. Per Friday close, I could do a roll to 4555/4565 for a diime debit. 4560/4570 for 2oc maybe. We'll see what SPX does Mon-Tue....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,177
  • Dec 2, 2023 10:01pm Dec 2, 2023 10:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I think I feel you, bro. Without reading too much into your situation, I'll tell you this: When you have been losing more than usual, or a lot, it's never a bad idea to withdraw for a while. Even if you're not doing that bad, taking a break from trading on a regular basis is healthy. A week off without thinking about the markets for a single second can work wonders for your perspective on things and for your mental health.
I can not agree more! I think you should treat trading like a regular job, complete with vacations and maybe even short weeks periodically, if you can.

But losses really have nothing to do with with it. Heck, my VEEV and UPS trades more than cover the losses. I've actually done extremely well because of the number of contracts I trade (I typically trade 25 contracts at a time, 100 contracts if price less than $0.40, and 10 contracts when price is $1.50 or higher). So even small moves make me a lot of money (like the NKE Oct27 102 PUT at $1.45 from $0.286 with 300 contracts). So it isn't about the money at all.....

It's about this time of year being when people have more time off. I've missed a few day trips with the family, overnight trips with some friends, and hanging out with people that took the week of Thanksgiving off. Since most of the people my age are pretty senior in their positions at work, they usually probably take most of December off, and I just want to hang out while they can. I've had several people I know die since Covid from various things (Covid, stroke, heart attacks, accidents, etc.) and want to chill with some while I can, ya know. (Funny how time now is often measured "since Covid" or "before Covid"...)

But this also goes back to what you were saying about taking time off doing wonders for your mental health, you are spot on with that! I think burnout can happen with any job, whether it is stressful or mundane, it doesn't really matter. I have more days I don't trade in the summer since the market is pretty calm, but it is nice to spend time with friends and family without having to worry if I'll make it back before the close or miss the open. I've not traded close to Christmas through New Year's before, I'm just thinking I'm gonna look at expanding it to maybe take all of December away from the computer for new trades.....or at least only get the really good ones. But I am addicted, so we will see if I can actually give it up for that long.
  • #19,178
  • Dec 2, 2023 10:20pm Dec 2, 2023 10:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I think I feel you, bro. Without reading too much into your situation, I'll tell you this: When you have been losing more than usual, or a lot, it's never a bad idea to withdraw for a while. Even if you're not doing that bad, taking a break from trading on a regular basis is healthy. A week off without thinking about the markets for a single second can work wonders for your perspective on things and for your mental health. I have not had a great year - I might do ok if December goes well, but I'm probably not gonna beat the indices. This...
Had no idea of the health issues, I'm really glad you are doing better now! I understand about the summer, that is kinda my vacation time because things just don't move that much. And when I'm sick, I do my best not to get into any new trades. I was sick as a dog several years back and was trading the OEX, and that puppy moves fast....Got into a PUT when I meant to get into a CALL and even though I was only in for probably 30 seconds, I would up losing almost $5K! So if I'm really sick, I don't even look at new trades.

I can't ever see you giving up. Heck, you're one of the most knowledgeable traders I know for your style (which I consider very difficult to understand), and you do very well as your posts can attest, so I'm sure most traders would love to have what you call a "mediocre year"!

It is too bad that no new blood gets on here, though. I see a lot of "traders" viewing the thread, but not too many "members". Those "traders" should just sign up and come get in the shark tank with us. I think if people knew all the benefits of options, they would see currency trading as fun but probably not the best way to buy things!

Stay well, brother, and I hope December is good for both of us!
  • #19,179
  • Dec 3, 2023 9:24am Dec 3, 2023 9:24am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} It is too bad that no new blood gets on here, though. I see a lot of "traders" viewing the thread, but not too many "members". Those "traders" should just sign up and come get in the shark tank with us. I think if people knew all the benefits of options, they would see currency trading as fun but probably not the best way to buy things! Stay well, brother, and I hope December is good for both of us!
...yeah, I'm ambivalent about that. There have been some good traders come and go here. But I think things have changed in the social media space, generally. More (most?) traders are posting on reddit or other newer platforms. Us fossils are hanging on here.

I have thought about joining one of the cheaper signal service memberships, primarily because they have Discord groups that regularly chat about their trades. The "Figuring Out Money" guy's annual membership is only $90/year. (He posts on youtube regularly.) Here's his website: https://figuringout.money/ ....heavy on intermarket analysis...

I think a majority of FF users are overseas now. They're trading fx because that's what's readily available to them. Cost of entry is another issue for them, maybe - you need a little money to open a margin account. I know options trading has become popular in India. I have had a few Indian traders reach out to me via pm here.

The "Superfly" thread I started not long ago regularly I see as one of the "hottest threads" on the FF homepage. I assume there's an algorithm that determines that status. Nobody posts there but me.

Honestly, I don't have any good reasons to be here. Some time ago I developed pretty detailed trade journaling, with a lot of data and narrative - time consuming to keep that up when I am in a lot of trades. So, I don't need FF to track my trades. I have a few friends who are trading, and I refer them to this thread to see how I trade in more detail. Generally, "I don't understand it', "too complicated" are the responses I've gotten. With you posting, I thought actually they might be interested in joining since they trade options more like you do.

I'll probably keep putting ideas out there, though. Kind of like messages in a bottle. And old habits die hard.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,180
  • Dec 3, 2023 10:48am Dec 3, 2023 10:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Honestly, I don't have any good reasons to be here. Some time ago I developed pretty detailed trade journaling, with a lot of data and narrative - time consuming to keep that up when I am in a lot of trades. So, I don't need FF to track my trades. I have a few friends who are trading, and I refer them to this thread to see how I trade in more detail.
I'm with you on that. It is actually very time consuming to post my trades on here and the only reason I do it is because I know of two people that tend to follow my trades, but I'm not sure if they still do that, we haven't communicated for a few months. That's why I'm trying to show what I'll be looking at before the close or right at the open, but I don't always have time to post that.

Most of the other chat rooms/message boards (assuming more than a few people are posting) are starting to get into bickering (e.g., how your charts should look and proper ratios to use and what that specific stock is REALLY going to do, etc.), really a lot like the other forums here on FF have been for years.

When I started out trading decades ago, I kept meticulous notes so I could go back and see why things worked and why they didn't. But I stumbled upon a program called SnagIt, which allows you to take screen grabs and annotate on the. So I just started taking a shot of the chart before and after the trade, the option chain at the start and end of the trade, and a shot of the SPY and DIA to put in a folder for each folder. That made review soooo much easier and since they were in their own folder, easy to trash. I found that to be so much faster than documenting by hand. I know you can get a copy for around $30 on ebay, so that's something to consider.

But like you, I'll probably keep posting my stuff on here in case someone out there is interested.
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