Daily GBP/JPY analysis

Fukai statement? DELAYED???

I woke up twice in the middle of the night for this?

DELAYED??

Fukui :thanks:

last time an annoncement has been delayed was when there was a rate hike...

a rose by any other name would not in this instance smell as sweet

BOJ already unanomously voted to stay same.

Now we pay attention to what Fukai say to intepret chances of hike next time.

Lol @ tricksing the world I would roflmao so hard if they did.

The wont though. How ever it may be a sign that he could say something that may cause much volatility

Any update on when statement will be released??

Has he started jabbering yet? I cant confirm. Things look like they waking up now

Yea, I see the same. He is jabbering!

dont know if he speaks, but the market surely knows what he is gonna say, as far as GY is rising rising. TP 1 242.90. Then I exit my longs and start shorting, coz there is a special star formation tonite.

BOJ Keeps Rate at 0.5%; Economists See Rise in August (Update4)

By Mayumi Otsuma
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, after consumer prices fell for a third month.
Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues left the key overnight lending rate unchanged for a fifth meeting, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo. The decision was unanimous and expected by all 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The bank last raised the rate in February.
The decision may exacerbate weakness in the yen after central banks in Europe and New Zealand raised interest rates and global bond yields climbed. Eleven of 17 economists surveyed predict the bank will raise the rate in August after its quarterly Tankan business confidence survey, a second-quarter economic growth report and Upper House elections.
``The Bank of Japan is still nailing down the impact of the February rate hike,'' said Seiji Shiraishi, chief economist at HSBC Securities Japan in Tokyo. ``But some board members will probably dissent from the majority view in July and call for a rate hike, and the central bank will take action in August.''
The yen traded at 123.05 per dollar at 3:40 p.m. in Tokyo from 122.92 yesterday, when it touched 123.12, the lowest since December 2002. The yield on Japan's 10-year bond fell 2.5 basis points to 1.93 percent. The yield touched an 11-month high of 1.985 percent earlier this week on expectations of higher rates.
Since last month, Fukui has indicated that he's concerned Japan's low interest rates could lead to ``inefficient'' investment that hurts future growth.
Faster Economic Growth
The world's second-largest economy expanded faster than initially estimated in the first quarter, led by consumer spending and stronger-than-expected business investment. The jobless rate fell to a nine-year low of 3.8 percent in April.
In contrast, industrial production slipped 0.2 percent in April from a month earlier and consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent, a third month of declines.
The economy is ``expanding moderately'' and prices will rise in the long term, the central bank said in its monthly report for June today. Fukui said last month that the bank can raise rates even while prices are falling.
``The bank must believe that recent price outcomes have been the result of `good' deflation -- the kind associated with heightened competitive pressures and rapid increases in productivity,'' said Huw McKay, senior international economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney.
Yen Carry Trade
The yen carry trade, in which investors borrow at low Japanese rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, may prompt Fukui to act next month, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. Japan's 0.5 percent key rate compares with 5.25 percent in the U.S., 4 percent in countries that share the euro and 8 percent in New Zealand.
``If Fukui skips a rate hike in July, that may accelerate the carry trade and the yen's decline, which the bank wants to avoid,'' said Shirakawa, a former Bank of Japan official.
Should fund managers dump risky holdings financed by the trade, the yen may suddenly jump, hurting exporters and investors. Fukui said on June 5 that such an unwinding would ``have a negative effect on the economy.''
Japanese mutual funds increased the percentage of foreign assets they hold by 53 percent to 33.5 trillion yen ($272 billion) in the year ended May 31, according to the Investment Trusts Association of Japan. Foreign assets now account for 43 percent of the 78.5 trillion yen total held by the funds.
`Psychological Effect'
Other economists say the bank will avoid raising rates next month because the board meeting will be held during the campaign for Upper House parliamentary elections scheduled for late July.
A July rate increase ``would have a psychological effect on regional economies and small businesses, and that may influence election results,'' said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo.
Still, Ueno added, some of the nine board members may call for a rate increase at the meeting. Three members unsuccessfully proposed tightening credit in January, a month before the 8-1 vote to raise the key rate to the current 0.5 percent.
There are other reasons the central bank may postpone an increase. The bank is scheduled to publish its quarterly Tankan survey on July 2, and the government will probably release second-quarter gross domestic product on Aug. 13.
Policy makers will also be better able to confirm the strength of economic growth in the U.S., Japan's largest export market. Concern that a U.S. slowdown may deepen has receded in the past month. The Federal Reserve this week said the U.S. economy is growing without stoking inflation.
U.S. Growth
``The U.S. economy will rejuvenate in the second quarter, as the Bank of Japan predicts,'' said Ryutaro Kono, chief market economist at BNP Paribas Securities in Tokyo.
Still, Japan's falling consumer prices will remain a barrier for the central bank to raise rates before October, said economist Jan Lambregts.
``Mild deflation is still out there and the Bank of Japan has a very difficult story to sell,'' said Lambregts, head of Asia research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong. ``The fact that the decision was unanimous reinforces that the Bank of Japan will only raise rates in the fourth quarter.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at [email protected]

Steak anyone?

Now for me these are enough reasons for keep buying dips on GY until August/September/October. of course there will be some retracements to the downside, even sooner than I might think, but this does really shows that the trend is up and healthy and will be for a looong time.

I will have a steak in blood this weekend after I close my longs. Damn, it was a nice ride since 240... the shorting guys can do whatever they want around 242.90, but i dont see this pair going lower than 242 today, in the worst case.

not right now, it might fill my shorts.

I'm keeping some horseradish nearby though, GY seems to have trouble keeping its neck above 240

Upside acceleration. Where will it stops ?

are u short?

lol no... i'm not stupid, why go short on a pair like this one. If i go short, i will have very good reason to do so.

thats true. Look at how it holds those levels...damn, im sure there are strong interests at stake. and look how fast it recovered after the last fall to 238. This only shows we go up up up.

But i must i admit, i would really like to see a nice drop down to enter at a good price ^^