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I think the Dollar is still at home eating pumpkin pie and getting fat - it better wake up before too long or there will be no Christmas money left!!!

Monarch
can i ask a question here. the last time GU hit 1.9550, it fell to 1.7072 in 11 month time. what actually happened then?
what does a 90 pip retracement on a big trend mean usually? Could this be an indicator of a trend reversal especially since the japanese just got into the market? This is a question for the seasoned trdaers not the ones that have been doing it live for 3 months meaning myself and others.....
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
Quoting judeng
can i ask a question here. the last time GU hit 1.9550, it fell to 1.7072 in 11 month time. what actually happened then?
Very good question does anyone know what sparked that situation?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
Personally Im complitly disoriented, I will stay out for a while now.

This is not the way I learned to trade in the last year
Quoting wwwin
I think is more than that. An academic paper in China indicating that China will be diversifying currency reserves is more like it.
Strong reason, but IMHO still not big enough for such behaviour
Quoting Rezo
Strong reason, but IMHO still not big enough for such behaviour
Well how about technical reasons? The breakout of an expanding triangle on the cable, and what appears to be a comfirmation of an impulse wave under Elliot, also on the cable, if you believe in that.
Quoting judeng
can i ask a question here. the last time GU hit 1.9550, it fell to 1.7072 in 11 month time. what actually happened then?
Here's what happened.
Attached Image
that's it? is it just purely technical? i was hoping it was fundamental reason. maybe it was too long ago.
Quoting Ghostpipper
what does a 90 pip retracement on a big trend mean usually? .....
Dont look too far into this. The market is in a total tizzy! Nothing is really making sense. Retracement of 90 pips is just as out of order as the initial move of 150 pips was. Best thing to do is stay out until things settle down... that is provided you are not long already as some are . If that is so just be happy you are in.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
Quoting Ghostpipper
what does a 90 pip retracement on a big trend mean usually? Could this be an indicator of a trend reversal especially since the japanese just got into the market? This is a question for the seasoned trdaers not the ones that have been doing it live for 3 months meaning myself and others.....
I wouldn't take the 90 pip retracement so seriousely when markets were closed.

The right question is how to interpret the GAP between friday closing and today oprning which was with NZ and Aussies. And regarding the gap - we have different conclusions about each type of gap, and how market acts AFTER gap is in place. Here is a link: Gaps and Gap Analysis
Quoting Mr Trend
EXACTLY... how refreshing this post is...

In my case, it's not that I'm trying to be all holier than thou or I think I am Mr. Market Wizard. To think like that would be the hallmark of an amaetuer.

More than anything, I want people to get what I finally got a LOOOONG time ago... remember what Dr. Elder says... take a look at my sig... that's the heart of it all...

6 months ago, I would've been all excited like a lot of people and would've went long right now on GBP for max leverage, to only find out later that I lost big... or that I couldn't take the emotional swings to handle that many lots...

It's a learning process... I just wish people would listen... because some of us have been there...

Like my mentor says -- everyone must find their way... you can try to lead them, but they have to decide for theirselves...
cool quote...i guess I took some of the amateurs' money with my usdchf and euro trades...muahahaha..suckers
Working towards CME membership
Quoting Rezo
I wouldn't take the 90 pip retracement so seriousely when markets were closed.

The right question is how to interpret the GAP between friday closing and today oprning which was with NZ and Aussies. And regarding the gap - we have different conclusions about each type of gap, and how market acts AFTER gap is in place. Here is a link: Gaps and Gap Analysis
a gap like this usually mean it will keep going up
Quoting Ghostpipper
Very good question does anyone know what sparked that situation?
The spike in 2004 was due to the US election. I remembered there was an unclear winner who won the election so that the day after the election the dollar dropped pretty bad. Since then, the USD was losing ground and 1.9550 number on pound was created. And it was the month in which interest rate was still about 2%. Then, the Fed announced to raise interest rate and there you go. It dropped to 1.8000. And remember, there was a terrorist attack in London in 2005. It also caused the GBP dropped lower.
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
Quoting wwwin
Well how about technical reasons? The breakout of an expanding triangle on the cable, and what appears to be a comfirmation of an impulse wave under Elliot, also on the cable, if you believe in that.
I dont do waves, but we had a break of a triangle + chanel, then we came back to the breaking line. At that stage, I thought it was dangerous to go long, but then on 21th, when we slowly-slowly retraced and crossed upside the formation, I went long (see second chart from november 21th).
Attached Images
Quoting SkYliNe0511
The spike in 2004 was due to the US election. I remembered there was an unclear winner who won the election so that the day after the election the dollar dropped pretty bad. Since then, the USD was losing ground and 1.9550 number on pound was created. And it was the month in which interest rate was still about 2%. Then, the Fed announced to raise interest rate and there you go. It dropped to 1.8000. And remember, there was a terrorist attack in London in 2005. It also caused the GBP dropped lower.
I remember the first month I was trading which was in August of this year. The GBP just raised interest rate by surprised and it was trending up. I designed a system using stohs (no longer using it ) and I shorted it at the top of the move. Then 2 days later, a terrorist threat in london that sent it 200 pips below.
Guess how much I got out of that move??!?!? breakeven!!!!!! I was such a NEWBIE back then and didn't know what the hell to do with the profit..hehe
Working towards CME membership
I had a brief chat with my broker just a min ago and they said today's gap was simply massive stop hunting by large players in an extremely thin market and that is why we will see more official regulation on the markets in a not so distant future. To many millions and billions are being manipulated by the few I guess. I feel bad for all those who lost money on dollar longs over the weekend or during last week, but you made the decision to keep your position over the weekend yourself and stuff like this can happen. You know the opening hours of your brokers and if you are not pleased with them, move to another one, or simply change trading style. Good luck to all of you in this coming week. Should be interesting.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
Quoting nitman
a gap like this usually mean it will keep going up
Simple and best interpretation will be: if we dont fill the gap today (i.e. we dont reach friday levels), then this will mean down-down-down for the dollar. and if we dont fill the gap this week - even worse.
Sounds like there are alot of ruffled feathers in this thread.
I took the holdiays off and was surprised to see what the market did too.
Here is what I am going to do:

Forget all of my pre holiday opinions, redraw my charts and technical analysis, look at the charts with fresh eyes and review next week's calandar.

Once that is done, it will be back to business as usual.

Monday will be the first solid non holiday trading day. I will watch the price action in the European and U.S. time zone closely.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
Quoting fxvision
I had a brief chat with my broker just a min ago and they said today's gap was simply massive stop hunting by large players in an extremely thin market and that is why we will see more official regulation on the markets in a not so distant future. To many millions and billions are being manipulated by the few I guess. I feel bad for all those who lost money on dollar longs over the weekend or during last week, but you made the decision to keep your position over the weekend yourself and stuff like this can happen. You know the opening hours of your brokers and if you are not pleased with them, move to another one, or simply change trading style. Good luck to all of you in this coming week. Should be interesting.
makes sense, be aware of thin markets maybe christmas will be similar? probably not because we will be expecting it lol
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
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