Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD/USD Analysis: Price at Important Resistance Block



Yesterday's news from the FOMC is unlikely to have much impact on participants' views that the Fed's tightening cycle is over. According to published protocols:
→ The Fed will act cautiously;
→ all FOMC participants considered it appropriate to keep rates at current levels;
→ everyone also agreed that they would raise interest rates only if progress in controlling inflation slowed. In doing so, they left the door open to the possibility of further tightening, even as data showed a sustained slowdown in inflation.
Market participants are almost confident that the Fed will keep rates at its December meeting, while estimating the likelihood of a rate cut as early as March at about 30%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The reaction of the foreign exchange market was a slight strengthening of the dollar index relative to other currencies, in particular AUD/USD.
By the way, yesterday, the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michelle Bullock, warned that wages are growing at a pace that cannot be sustained without reversing the decline in productivity in the country, which indicates the possibility of another rate hike to suppress inflation.
“Inflation will be the most important issue in the next one to two years,” she said on Tuesday.




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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Falls to a Two-Month Low



American dollar quotes continue their local correction, the US dollar index is trading at 103.400 against the backdrop of weak statistics on the real estate market: sales volumes on the secondary housing market in October decreased by 4.1% after -2.2% in the previous month, from 3.95 million to 3.79 million, below preliminary estimates of 3.90 million. Investors hardly reacted to the published minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Members of the Open Market Committee noted that they expect the value to remain at a high level for quite a long time. In addition, the regulator does not exclude the possibility of further tightening of monetary conditions if the rate of decline in inflation continues to slow down. Macroeconomic statistics published the day before put moderate pressure on the position of the American currency.

EUR/USD



According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating near the 1.0900 mark, awaiting the emergence of new drivers in the market. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0985, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.1000. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0900, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883.

The day before, the pair managed to move away from the new local highs of August 11, forming a new impulse for the development of a full-fledged corrective trend in the nearest time intervals. The day before, ECB head Christine Lagarde made a speech, warning against prematurely declaring victory over high inflation. According to her, the department will closely monitor the situation until the consumer price index decreases to the target of 2.0%, which it is projected to reach in 2025. At the same time, Lagarde also pointed to the rather tense situation in the labour market, where there is still a noticeable increase in wages. Earlier this week, the head of the Bank of France and ECB member François Villeroy de Galhau said that interest rates in the eurozone had reached a plateau, where they were likely to remain for several more quarters while officials assessed the effect of measures already taken.

At the highs of the week, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price is near the lower border of the channel and may continue to decline if it breaks through.

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NVDA Shares Decline after Strong Report



The previous historical record and maximum for 2023 (USD 502.66 per share) was set on August 24 against the backdrop of the publication of the 2nd quarter report.
This week, NVidia published its report for the Q3, and again the price set a record high, as the report turned out to be better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 4.02, forecast = USD 3.37;
→ gross revenue: actual = USD 18.12 billion, forecast = USD 16.18 billion.
However, after the publication of the report, the NVDA share price shows bearish dynamics — perhaps the information from the company disappointed overly optimistic investors. Or perhaps some market participants used the excitement associated with the publication of the report in order to lock in profits from the 2023 rally.
However, NVDA shares fell 2.6% yesterday after CFO Colette Kress said sales to China, impacted by recent US government export controls, would decline significantly in the fourth quarter.




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The Price of WTI Oil Forming a Reversal Pattern



In our analysis of the price of WTI oil dated November 8, we wrote that the price could recover to the level of USD 80 per barrel.
After the price failed to reach the round level of USD 80 by only 36 cents (the median line of the descending channel prevented this from happening) on November 14, the bears again seized the initiative. The result of their pressure was a reduction in the price to a new autumn low on November 14 at the level of USD 73 per barrel, after which the price recovered again to the median line.

A new attempt by the bears to push the price down from the median line occurred on November 22, but note how quickly the price of oil recovered after falling below USD 75 per barrel. This is evidence of bull aggression and the strength of demand.
At the same time, the price forms an inverted head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, as a result of which a bullish breakdown of the current descending channel may occur, although if this event occurs, it is unlikely in the near future, since first the bulls need to overcome the resistance from the median line. Also, the bulls will have psychological resistance at USD 80 and, possibly, the SMA (100), directed downwards.




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USD/CAD Analysis: the Rate Approaching Important Support



Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said yesterday that enough may have been done to curb inflation. As follows from his words, current policies can lead to inflation returning to the target of 2%.

The announcement fueled market and economist expectations that interest rates had peaked. It is acceptable to assume that the Bank of Canada instilled confidence in market participants, and therefore the Canadian dollar strengthened yesterday relative to other currencies.

Including relative to USD. Yesterday, by the way, data on the number of unemployment applications was published. They did not bring any surprises - the labour market continues to remain strong in the US (the actual number of applications was = 209k for the week, expected = 226k, a week ago = 233k). The news gave a reason to strengthen the USD, but overall the US dollar index is in a downward trend amid expectations of easing Fed policy.




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USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD Analysis: Commodity Currencies and Euro Poised to Resume Growth



After the publication of the FOMC protocols on Tuesday, the dollar managed to partially regain its lost positions. Thus, in the dollar/yen pair one could observe a corrective pullback to figure 149, the US dollar/canadian dollar pair almost tested 1.3800, and the AUD/USD pair tested the important level of 0.6500, but as support. European currencies also retreated from previously reached highs. However, US dollar buyers have not yet been able to develop a full-fledged upward movement, and yesterday evening the main trends established in early November continued in many pairs.
USD/CAD

In the USD to CAD chart, we are seeing a rebound from the resistance located at the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. The pair continues to work out the reversal bearish combination from November 1st. With the appropriate foundation, a breakdown of the lower fractal at 1.3650 is possible and the pair may continue to decline in the direction of 1.3500-1.3400. We may consider canceling the downward scenario if the pair confidently consolidates above 1.3800.
Today at 16:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on wholesale sales and corporate income in Canada for the current quarter. The core Canadian retail sales index for September will be released at this time tomorrow.




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European Shares Rise on Improving PMI Readings



Yesterday, the values of the PMI index (it is characterized as a leading indicator of industrial production and services) for European countries were published:
→ in Germany: fact = 42.3; expected = 41.1; a month earlier = 40.7;
→ in France: fact = 42.6; expected = 43.2; a month earlier = 42.6;
Although the index values are below 50, indicating a contraction in the economy, the dynamics are encouraging. Thus, in France, the index stabilized after a series of declines. And in Germany, the index is consistently growing after a minimum of 38.8 in July. In this way, business is reacting to the fact that the ECB may have reached the peak of increases and monetary policy will not tighten in the future.
At the same time, the ESX50 index of 50 European shares gained bullish momentum and reached its highest levels since mid-August. Equity market participants may be feeling strongly positive about the rally of more than +9% in less than a month.




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Gold Price Dips From $2K While Crude Oil Price Recovers



Gold price surged toward the $2,000 zone before the bears appeared. Crude oil price is attempting a recovery wave above the $75.00 zone.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

 

1. Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,965 zone against the US Dollar.
2. A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $1,995 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
3. Crude oil prices started a decent recovery wave from the $73.80 support.
4. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $77.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,965 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,985.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,985 and $1,995 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $2,005 zone before the bears appeared.
There was a minor downside correction below $2,000 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,965 swing low to the $2,007 high.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,965 swing low to the $2,007 high at $1,985. The first major support is near the $1,975 zone.

If there is a downside break below the $1,975 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,965 support.
Immediate resistance is near a key bearish trend line at $1,995 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the $2,005 level. An upside break above the $2,005 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,032 level.

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Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: NASDAQ’S NEW TOP, USD/CAD NEWS, WTI OIL, NVDA SHARES DECLINE

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1. NASDAQ: New Top of the Year #NASDAQ
2. USD/CAD: The Rate Approaching Important Support #USDCAD
3. The Price of WTI Oil Forming a Reversal Pattern #WTIOil
4. NVDA shares decline after strong report #NVDA

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GBP/USD Rallies While EUR/GBP Slides Below Support



GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2575 resistance. EUR/GBP declined heavily below the 0.8720 and 0.8695 support levels.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2600.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2575 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8720 pivot level.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8695 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above the 1.2450 level. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound started a decent increase above the 1.2500 zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2530. The pair even climbed above 1.2575 and traded as high as 1.2615. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2449 swing low to the 1.2615 high.
On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2615. The next major resistance is near 1.2640.
A close above the 1.2640 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2700. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2740.
On the downside, there is a key support forming near a bullish trend line at 1.2575. If there is a downside break below 1.2575, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2449 swing low to the 1.2615 high at 1.2530.
The next key support is seen near 1.2510, below which the pair could test 1.2450. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2370 support.

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Market Analysis: Results of Black Friday in Financial Markets



As CNN reports, Black Friday brought single-day sales records in the United States. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, offline sales increased by 1%, and online sales by 8.5%. According to Sensormatic Solutions, store traffic increased by 4.6% year on year. Shopify reported record sales growth of 22% year over year to $4 billion worldwide.

The activity of buyers indicates the stability of the US economy, which is reflected in the stock markets — the S&P 500 index is near the highs of the year. However, the beginning of the week may bring an unpleasant surprise: on Thursday, the publication of the values of the PME indicator, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation in the United States, will take place.
Meanwhile, Black Friday became a significant day in the cryptocurrency market — the price of bitcoin reached a new high of the year, exceeding the level of 38k dollars per coin. Perhaps the generosity of buyers on Black Friday helped create a record for the year, but the bulls failed to maintain the achieved levels. The BTC/USD chart shows that:

→ exceeding the level of 38k dollars looks like a false breakout of the previous top;
→ a false breakout formed a bearish engulfing pattern;
→ according to online metrics, on Black Friday, short positions on crypto exchanges were liquidated in the amount of $15 to $20 million;
→ The MACD indicator shows a series of decreasing highs 1-2-3-4, which may indicate the depletion of demand forces, which is stimulated by the anticipation of the approval of the bitcoin ETF.




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Australian Dollar Reaches Its Highest Since Early August



Important events regarding AUD took place this morning:
→ the level of retail sales for the month in Australia unexpectedly fell: actual = -0.2%, expected = +0.1%, a month earlier = +0.9%.
→ a press conference was held by the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, according to whom inflation in Australia follows the path of overseas countries. That is, inflation is decreasing, as in the USA and Great Britain.

Against the background of these events, the AUD/USD rate exceeded the level of 0.663 for the first time since the beginning of August. The rally from the late October low is already about 5.5%. However, this upward trend has 3 important obstacles:

The upper limit of the November ascending channel (shown in blue).
The upper limit of the longer-term parallel channel (shown in red).
Level 0.660. During 2023, it worked as support once. Therefore, from the point of view of technical analysis, there is reason to expect that it will provide resistance.




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Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month Lows



Yesterday, XNG/USD quotes dropped below the 2,900 level for the first time since mid-September. This was helped by the fact that the NatGasWeather weather forecasting model late last week showed a cooling trend in December in the US, but this was replaced by warming over the weekend.
According to analyst forecasts from Analysts Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., published on Monday:
→ natural gas reserves at the end of winter could be 2 trillion cubic feet (previously forecast 1.9 trillion);
→ price could be USD 2.75 (previous forecast was USD 3 or less).




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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Market Analysis: The US Dollar Continues to Fall



The downward movement in the American currency, which began at the end of October, resumed with renewed vigour at the beginning of the current five-day trading period.
Thus, the euro/US dollar pair is consolidating at 1.0900, the pound/US dollar pair has confidently strengthened above 1.2600, and USD/JPY sellers have broken through the resistance at 149. Nevertheless, the coming trading sessions are quite saturated with the fundamentals, so it is possible to see both the strengthening of existing trends and the beginning of corrective pullbacks from the main movements.

USD/JPY

The cooling of the US labour market and lower inflation are contributing to increased bearish sentiment on the dollar. More and more market participants are becoming confident that the most aggressive rate-tightening cycle of the last couple of decades is behind us, and the Fed could cut its benchmark interest rate as soon as the first quarter of 2024. On the contrary, the Bank of Japan has been adhering to a policy of ultra-low interest rates for a long time, and if it decides to change the current vector of monetary policy, the dollar/yen pair may suffer significant losses.
Last week, on the USD/JPY chart, the pair almost tested a significant support level at 147.00. Greenback buyers managed to correct to 149.70, but yesterday evening the pair was trading below 149.00.
Today we are waiting for data on the US consumer confidence index from CB for November. Analysts expect a decline in the indicator, which may contribute to a retest of 147.00. We could consider cancelling the downward scenario only after a confident strengthening above 150.00.




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EUR/USD Extends Rally While USD/JPY Nosedives



EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.0930 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 148.20 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

 

1. The Euro remained in a bullish zone and climbed above the 1.0965 resistance zone.
2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0975 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 148.20 and 147.40 levels.
4. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 147.40 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started fresh above the 1.0900 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0930 resistance zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
The pair even settled above the 1.0965 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1020 resistance. A high is formed near 1.1017 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0935 swing low to the 1.1017 high at 1.0975. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0975.
The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0935 swing low to the 1.1017 high and the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0965.

If there is a downside break below 1.0965, the pair could drop toward the 1.0930 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0895, below which the pair could start a major decline.
On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.1020. The next major resistance is near the 1.1050 level. An upside break above 1.1050 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1140.

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EUR/USD Analysis: Price Reaches the Level of 1.1000



Before yesterday's trading session, the last time 1 euro was 1.1 USD was in the first half of August.
The growth of the rate was facilitated by the weakening of the dollar, which occurred against the background of the words of Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, who is known for his hawkish policies. But he has already softened his position.

"I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent," he said yesterday, however, adding that if the decline in inflation continues “for a few more months... three months, four months, five months... we can start reducing the discount rate just because inflation is lower.”

The expected rate cut could mark the beginning of a new period of looser monetary policy. Therefore, financial markets reacted by increasing the prices of currencies relative to the dollar — in particular, the euro reached a psychological level.




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NASDAQ Composite Index Heralds a Fine Time for Tech Stocks



In the ever-fluctuating landscape of financial markets, the NASDAQ exchange, home to some of the world's most prominent technology stocks, has been a bastion of volatility over the past two years. This week, the NASDAQ index continues its upward trajectory, reaching its highest point in five days, marking a notable shift in sentiment for the technology-focused venue.
As of the close of the New York trading session yesterday, the NASDAQ index has demonstrated resilience and vigour. A closer look at the five-day moving average reveals a climb to the highest point in five days, showcasing the current bullish sentiment among investors. Over the course of the last month, the NASDAQ index has experienced an impressive gain of 12%, underlining the sustained positive momentum.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Falls to Its Lowest Level Since Mid-August



EUR/USD

The euro strengthened on Monday as the dollar fell on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again. Traders this week will have to weigh data on how the US economy performed in the third quarter, as well as key data on consumer inflation and spending, both of which could play an important role in setting expectations for the timing of the first rate cut.
The focus this week will be Thursday's October US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report, which is said to be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, as well as eurozone consumer inflation data for greater clarity on where prices and monetary policy are heading. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the nearest resistance can be seen at 1.1023, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise to 1.1046. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0966, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0924.
At the highs of the week, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue its corrective decline.




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Today OPEC+ May Announce New Oil Production Cuts



According to WSJ, the reduction could be 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is in favour of cuts, but the idea causes disagreements among other members of the organisation.
In anticipation of news about the OPEC+ decision, the price of oil is rising - this indicates that market participants assess the possibility of new production cuts as quite real, even if we are not talking about 1 million barrels per day. The price is approaching its maximum for November.




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