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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,061
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:49am Jun 14, 2007 10:49am
Quoting Scrat
as i said, technically you're right. but i think you're underestimating the message from RBNZ and you're forgetting that, even with limited resources, it is still a central bank (i can't think of anyone who would want a war with a central bank... can you?). i'm not saying that g-j will drop right now because of nzd, i'm just saying that nzd is a reason for a short on g-j. when time comes, of course.
Now I got ur message...the key here is when the time is right, sell. But in my opinion it didnt come yet, and it might not come soon. At least I wont sell GY if not below 239.50, this seems the pivot here for bulls and bears. Trying to guess the top as some of the people here are doing is suicide. However, I also have a few fears that make me think another top is near....

Quoting Scrat
i can't think of anyone who would want a war with a central bank... can you?
yeah, in 92. our friend Soros fought against BOE. Wish he would sell again today but let us know first.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #6,062
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:59am Jun 14, 2007 10:59am
You are right too about mix data in. I forgot about the political elections though. Do you know how what month it will be?

With this in mind, I highly doubt a hike rate today, but then again BOJ has this knack for the element of suprise like Feb 26th.

I'll still in Long position but rather light till announcment which has no TIME yet!! i wonder why they do this TENATIVE thing all the time!!

Quoting BaasHarm!
You are right, waiting untill after the BOJ statement would be wise. I'm maintaining fairly large GBJPY & CADJPY long positions. I might scale down a bit but will be looking to add in case of no hike.
BOJ not lifting rates is a fairly save bet ATM. Data from japan has been mixed, inflation, wages and consumer spending are not where BOJ need to see them to raise rates. And with the upcoming elections, there's plenty of political pressure not to hike. And BOJ has a history of hawkish statements without following them through.

So no hike and a continuation of the carry next week!!!!!
  • #6,063
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:03am Jun 14, 2007 11:03am
OK here's my 2 yens worth.

I have been studying GJ for a long time now, the best i have found to react.................not predict to is the following.

1HR chart, with standard Bolli, 8 and 13 ema

Uderneath standard MACD

Macd cross will give the heads up, just WAIT til the ems' and the Bolli ema cross.............then trade it !!

Again you won't win them all but it sure beats trying to second guess

Good luck
  • #6,064
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:08am Jun 14, 2007 11:08am
Appears to me it's it's gathering momentum for a push towards 243 (last weeks high), Has a similar pattern as last week around this price before it pushed upwards. I really don't think it has the strength to push through. But we'll see.
  • #6,065
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:22am Jun 14, 2007 11:22am
When the rate news comes out it should move a bit more. The last time I saw this setup though it went up. I still think it will. More so if the US stock close up for the day. Then they start buying more offshore investments and driving the yen value down.

Well as Dragon77 put it, thats my 2 yen
  • #6,066
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:23am Jun 14, 2007 11:23am
My appologies , my previous post should have read 2HR chart not 1 HR

hope that makes more sense.............or cents even
  • #6,067
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:27am Jun 14, 2007 11:27am
Quoting gagiul
Now I got ur message...the key here is when the time is right, sell. But in my opinion it didnt come yet, and it might not come soon. At least I wont sell GY if not below 239.50, this seems the pivot here for bulls and bears. Trying to guess the top as some of the people here are doing is suicide. However, I also have a few fears that make me think another top is near....


yeah, in 92. our friend Soros fought against BOE. Wish he would sell again today but let us know first.
He started alone but he then been followed by a lot of people Soros alone would not have been able to fight the BOE
  • #6,068
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:36am Jun 14, 2007 11:36am
Quoting newjersey24
You are right too about mix data in. I forgot about the political elections though. Do you know how what month it will be?

With this in mind, I highly doubt a hike rate today, but then again BOJ has this knack for the element of suprise like Feb 26th.

I'll still in Long position but rather light till announcment which has no TIME yet!! i wonder why they do this TENATIVE thing all the time!!
July 22nd japanese senate elections.
The february hike wasn't the real surprise, the january non-hike after strong data was. That gave way for plenty of speculation that they wouldn't hike for a very long time.

Anyway remember how the decision was on japanese TV before it was officially announced.......
  • #6,069
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:40am Jun 14, 2007 11:40am
MELPHEOS

I totally agree with you, this pair is so unpredictable as it depends on so many things incuding stocks around the world.

The best thing we can all do is WAIT.

If a top out occours it will be obvious, just look at the sell off earlier this year.

If it doesn't...............just buy dips
  • #6,070
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:49am Jun 14, 2007 11:49am
Quoting dragon77
My appologies , my previous post should have read 2HR chart not 1 HR

hope that makes more sense.............or cents even
How are you looking at 2H chart on MT4?
  • #6,071
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:53am Jun 14, 2007 11:53am
TRADER 8686

I dont use MT4 just normal charts
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  • #6,072
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:55am Jun 14, 2007 11:55am
OH dear I am not having a good day, this the real chart

OOPPS
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  • #6,073
  • Jun 14, 2007 11:58am Jun 14, 2007 11:58am
Waiting for a short signal,... What does master cesar have to say?,... Any advice sir?,...
  • #6,074
  • Jun 14, 2007 12:26pm Jun 14, 2007 12:26pm
I need to apologize to everybody in this forum. Yes, it is me. First day I in this week I can focus in this market and it freezes....

I turn my back it moves... A lot... Heavily, beautifully... I look at my charts and it freezes again

Ok, I'm gonna leave the computer for some hours now, you can trade free...

Sorry about that.

  • #6,075
  • Jun 14, 2007 12:41pm Jun 14, 2007 12:41pm
242.30 if it closes on one of the hourly charts above that then the 1st hurdle will be over. 242.5 will be the next.

1st sup. 241.45
2nd sup. 241.15
3rd sup. 240.81
1st res. 242.5
2nd res. 243
3rd res. 243.45

If it cant make that climb before the news I might be getting ready to short it. How ever if it does then it could possibly be a sign off things to come. The PPI data hardly had and impact on the crosses tonight. It could be that every one is treating the BOJ like a bipolar hostage taker as no one knows what it will do as it has been stated it has surprised us in the past.

**EDIT** woops forgot to mention my H1 showing bullish bias and H4 showing bear and very OB so I am looking for a rejection og 242.3 - 242.5

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  • #6,076
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:00pm Jun 14, 2007 2:00pm
By the way, dont forget to stay wake up on the BOJ annoncement (it will be 1:50AM for me )

A rate hike is very unlikly to happens but if it is annonced, yen will be bought at a very fast rate and SSE will drop )
  • #6,077
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:29pm Jun 14, 2007 2:29pm
kekekeke the 6 - 8 hours before the london open are when I am most likely to be sleeping. I am still watching though as I have an army of flying monkies with cellphones who will call me should anything happen. Works quite well. And because of my full time job I am always awake for the London/NY and start of the kiwi/aus and asian sessions.

So means am the go almost 24/7 cept weekends cause then it's just my day job. and I still manage to go fishing at least once or twice a week though I look like this most of the time
  • #6,078
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:43pm Jun 14, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting melpheos
By the way, dont forget to stay wake up on the BOJ annoncement (it will be 1:50AM for me )

A rate hike is very unlikly to happens but if it is annonced, yen will be bought at a very fast rate and SSE will drop )
were about in the world are you?
  • #6,079
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:27pm Jun 14, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting dirtymonkey79
were about in the world are you?
France
  • #6,080
  • Jun 14, 2007 4:05pm Jun 14, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting melpheos
France
so your on the same time as me in germany
and you say it will be released at 1:50 am how do you know that?
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