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Attachments: 50 +/- MACD 4hour
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50 +/- MACD 4hour

  • #41
  • Jun 12, 2007 12:13pm Jun 12, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting the_guvnor
Im happy with the simple rules I have at the moment.

My plan now is to create some code so I can test other pairs.
Also I am going to create a manual of the procedures I must undertake when trading. Entry rules Exit rules and money managment rules.
I'm looking at a busy afternoon. If I don't get the code written today, I will tomorrow.
Its a little tricky, because it just dawned on me that I'm going to have to work with 5M or 15M bars and shift the time frame to get the 4H MACD readings.

I can't work directly with 4H bars because if I have a long bar that goes up and hits the PT and falls back down and hits the SL, Amibroker will only see the the stop out and log it as a loss. That will skew the results.
  • #42
  • Jun 12, 2007 1:45pm Jun 12, 2007 1:45pm
Here's where you can get Alpari's data.

http://old.alpari.org/en/dc/databank.php
  • #43
  • Jun 12, 2007 8:47pm Jun 12, 2007 8:47pm
Explanation of 3 previous Macd Signals.
Example: time is 08:00 a new macd signal has formed Now take the macd number from 20:00 and if there is difference of +/-50 from the 04:00 signal go long/short at 08:00

Is the +/- 50 the difference between the high and low of the histogram in the previous 3 histogram bars? Or the difference between the two lines that produce the histogram bars?

How many trades per wk on GBP/USD? Thanks Paul
  • #44
  • Jun 12, 2007 9:49pm Jun 12, 2007 9:49pm
Quoting plind
Explanation of 3 previous Macd Signals.
Example: time is 08:00 a new macd signal has formed Now take the macd number from 20:00 and if there is difference of +/-50 from the 04:00 signal go long/short at 08:00

Is the +/- 50 the difference between the high and low of the histogram in the previous 3 histogram bars? Or the difference between the two lines that produce the histogram bars?

How many trades per wk on GBP/USD? Thanks Paul

Look back at posts 22 and 23. it pretty well lays it out.
  • #45
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:30am Jun 13, 2007 2:30am
Quoting billbss
Here's where you can get Alpari's data.

http://old.alpari.org/en/dc/databank.php
Thanks i found this last night. And fixed the intraday problem in amibroker.

I changed the base time interval to 1 minute in the database settings.
  • #46
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:53am Jun 13, 2007 2:53am
Quoting plind
How many trades per wk on GBP/USD? Thanks Paul
7-10 2 lot trades a week
Some days have 3 trades. On Flat days there is usually no trades.
  • #47
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:31am Jun 13, 2007 8:31am
Quoting the_guvnor
My Trading plan 50+/-

This is were I will develop my trading plan.

About

Hello my name is Dean and I have been studying the currency market for 4 years whilst I was an IT student.
I have now finished my degree and are looking for a IT job.
I plan to trade part time from work and have a strategy were I will look for entries at 0800, 1200, 1600 and 2000 hours.

Because I intend to pay for my living expenses from my day job while I compound my profits from my trading activities for at least a year, I need to make quick decisions based on pre determined rules and enter trades based on them. And any position I enter should not be altered in anyway other than being stopped out by hitting a stop loss level.

My trades will be done between 8 am and 8pm GMT(bst)

I will begin by only trading GBP/USD until I am successful and confident in myself to trade other pairs.

I shall be trading Cable because it is very volatile and my back testing shows that my strategy has been profitable in the past.

Chart Setup

I shall have a four hour chart of GBP/USD open with

  1. MACD(5,13,1)

Entries

Check Chart 5 -10 mins before 0800, 1200, 1600 and 2000 and be ready to enter a position.

Entry 0
Basic entries for this system is when the previous 3 MACD signals has a difference of + 50 (long) or -50 (Short)

Explanation of 3 previous Macd Signals.
Example: time is 08:00 a new macd signal has formed Now take the macd number from 20:00 and if there is difference of +/-50 from the 04:00 signal go long/short at 08:00


Exit stratergy


Posistion 1 Set TP at 30 sl at 30
Posistion 2 set TP at 45 sl at 30 (move stop to break even at +30)

Hi,

I am fairly new to forex trading and i had a question about the attachment that you had posted. In the picture you show the difference between the candles you have the first one shown at -.00245 and the second at -.00138 and you state that the diffence between the two is .00145. I don't know if it is me and my mind is having a brain fart but isn't the difference between those numbers -.00107. Im sure i am probably calculating something wrong so could you please tell me how you would properly calculate the difference to determine whether you are going long or short, i am a little confused on that as you can see. Thanks for your help. Be Blessed.
Live today as if you will stand before God tomorrow.
  • #48
  • Jun 13, 2007 9:11am Jun 13, 2007 9:11am
I looked at that pic and the values are wrong. Ill post some more as examples.

Dean
Quoting Pippy Cent
Hi,

I am fairly new to forex trading and i had a question about the attachment that you had posted. In the picture you show the difference between the candles you have the first one shown at -.00245 and the second at -.00138 and you state that the diffence between the two is .00145. I don't know if it is me and my mind is having a brain fart but isn't the difference between those numbers -.00107. Im sure i am probably calculating something wrong so could you please tell me how you would properly calculate the difference to determine whether you are going long or short, i am a little confused on that as you can see. Thanks for your help. Be Blessed.
  • #49
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:46am Jun 13, 2007 10:46am
Quoting the_guvnor
A new example
Did you mean .00105 is the difference between the two? Thanks.
Live today as if you will stand before God tomorrow.
  • #50
  • Jun 13, 2007 10:57am Jun 13, 2007 10:57am
Yes. Whoops.
  • #51
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:06am Jun 13, 2007 11:06am
Ok thanks i think i have a better understanding of the entry points now. I appreciate your help. Be Blessed
Live today as if you will stand before God tomorrow.
  • #52
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:53pm Jun 13, 2007 2:53pm
Formal trading plan. This is what I have so far.

Any ideas, suggestions or criticism are welcome.


Dean Simpson's Trading Plan


version 0.1


13/06/2007


Routine


Monday to Friday arrive at the machine at 7.45.

  1. Check on any previous positions from the previous Day

  2. Calculate Appropriate lot sizes for the current Account Balance

  3. Check the current MACD Signal on 240minute cable chart to see if its +/- 0.00050 difference from the 8pm signal

  4. If The MACD difference is indicating to take a position and there are no trades open then buy/sell 2 positions and set the correct SL and TP prices for them both

  5. Repeat again at 11.45 then at 15:45 and finally at 20:45


Trade Strategies, Setups, Entries and exits


Mechanical MACD system


The intention of this system is to capture 75 pips from a 45 pip movement in the daily trend of currency pairs. The system allows for entry and exits to be easily defined and to remove any negative affects that my emotions could have on the outcome of the trade.


Settings


4 Hour chart

MACD (5,13,1)


Entries – Long And Short


At 8am, 12pm, 4pm and 8pm check the chart to see if there is a positive or negative difference of 0.00050 Between the 3 previous MACD signals.



If no trades are currently open. And If there is a positive/negative difference of 50 or more than open 2 positions long/short


  1. Position A ( X Lots) SL 30 TP 30

  2. Position B ( X Lots) SL 30 TP 45

Once the Position A Reaches its Profit target move position B SL to break even


Exits – Long And Short


The only time a position is closed is once its stop has been hit.







Risk and Money management


I am prepared to risk a total of 5 % of my equity per trade. Or 2.5% per position.


I will use a online risk calculator to to calculate correct lot size for my account equity, leverage and risk percentage.

http://www.goforex.net/money-management-calculator.htm



Post trade logging


After all trades I will enter the details into a spreadsheet.


Date, Time, MACD Difference, Entry Price, Exit Price, MFE, MAE, Lots, Profit

  • #53
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:58pm Jun 13, 2007 2:58pm
Another idea I have is to double up my posistion after X losing trades.

Ill know what X is when I have done a more furrow back test.

And then backtested this method. I would be risking 10% of my account but the chances are that the trade will be more profitable.

Doesnt even have to be a 10 % could be 7.5

Anyway just another idea.
  • #54
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:23pm Jun 13, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting the_guvnor
Another idea I have is to double up my posistion after X losing trades.

Ill know what X is when I have done a more furrow back test.

And then backtested this method. I would be risking 10% of my account but the chances are that the trade will be more profitable.

Doesnt even have to be a 10 % could be 7.5

Anyway just another idea.
Well written plan. You're already way ahead by defining exactly the way you are going to do it.

I'm still trying to write my code. I can't make it work yet.

I don't agree with your plan on doubling up after X losses.

The only time the trade size should be increased is if the expectancy of winning is increased.

If you have had X straight losses that does not make the next trade any more likely to win although it may seem that it does.

If you toss a fair coin and get ten straight heads the next toss is still 50/50 for heads or tails. The coin has no memory. It doesn't know it is supposed to land tails this time.

The same is true for this system.
  • #55
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:39pm Jun 13, 2007 3:39pm
Yes True. I dont really like the increased risk aswell im not a gambler by nature.

Iv got a break from the girlfriend untill sunday so I have time to code. I have just loaded up the formula editor in amibroker. I can get it to plot a shape now just need to write the macd part.
  • #56
  • Jun 14, 2007 9:13am Jun 14, 2007 9:13am
Update

Im starting to get somewhere now in amibroker. But I wont be able to do any more now untill tommorow morning.

Im creating an indicator first then ill look at doing more backtests.
  • #57
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:56pm Jun 14, 2007 1:56pm
If you are in a postion for example going short and your stop has not yet been reached and you check the postion at the scheduled time and it indicates for you to go long do you reverse your position and go long or do you stay going short. Im not sure if this is a likely scenario because of the SL but i figured that i would pose the question anyways..lol Thanks so much for all your help and for sharing this strategy with us. God Bless

Quoting the_guvnor
Formal trading plan. This is what I have so far.

Any ideas, suggestions or criticism are welcome.




Dean Simpson's Trading Plan





version 0.1





13/06/2007





Routine





Monday to Friday arrive at the machine at 7.45.

  1. Check on any previous positions from the previous Day

  2. Calculate Appropriate lot sizes for the current Account Balance

  3. Check the current MACD Signal on 240minute cable chart to see if its +/- 0.00050 difference from the 8pm signal

  4. If The MACD difference is indicating to take a position and there are no trades open then buy/sell 2 positions and set the correct SL and TP prices for them both

  5. Repeat again at 11.45 then at 15:45 and finally at 20:45

Trade Strategies, Setups, Entries and exits





Mechanical MACD system





The intention of this system is to capture 75 pips from a 45 pip movement in the daily trend of currency pairs. The system allows for entry and exits to be easily defined and to remove any negative affects that my emotions could have on the outcome of the trade.





Settings





4 Hour chart



MACD (5,13,1)





Entries – Long And Short





At 8am, 12pm, 4pm and 8pm check the chart to see if there is a positive or negative difference of 0.00050 Between the 3 previous MACD signals.







If no trades are currently open. And If there is a positive/negative difference of 50 or more than open 2 positions long/short


 

  1. Position A ( X Lots) SL 30 TP 30

  2. Position B ( X Lots) SL 30 TP 45

Once the Position A Reaches its Profit target move position B SL to break even



Exits – Long And Short





The only time a position is closed is once its stop has been hit.
















Risk and Money management




I am prepared to risk a total of 5 % of my equity per trade. Or 2.5% per position.





I will use a online risk calculator to to calculate correct lot size for my account equity, leverage and risk percentage.



http://www.goforex.net/money-management-calculator.htm







Post trade logging





After all trades I will enter the details into a spreadsheet.





Date, Time, MACD Difference, Entry Price, Exit Price, MFE, MAE, Lots, Profit



Live today as if you will stand before God tomorrow.
  • #58
  • Jun 14, 2007 6:41pm Jun 14, 2007 6:41pm
I Have thought of this. And dont think it would be very probable that a posistion would still be open when a reverse signal is generated.

But this has given me an idea for managing the exisits of the trade.
We could look for a reversal signal on smaller time frame to close the posistion. This would give me the problem of needing to look at the charts on a hourly basis, which is not practicle at the moment.

Maybe when im trading full time. I look into this idea in the future.

Quoting Pippy Cent
If you are in a postion for example going short and your stop has not yet been reached and you check the postion at the scheduled time and it indicates for you to go long do you reverse your position and go long or do you stay going short. Im not sure if this is a likely scenario because of the SL but i figured that i would pose the question anyways..lol Thanks so much for all your help and for sharing this strategy with us. God Bless
  • #59
  • Jun 14, 2007 9:49pm Jun 14, 2007 9:49pm
Quoting the_guvnor
7-10 2 lot trades a week
Some days have 3 trades. On Flat days there is usually no trades.
Thank you Dean for sharing your interesting system.

Do you have a spreadsheet or document of your backtest data that you could post so that I could more easily follow your trades?

I'm wondering which exit strategy will be more profitable: the 75 pips or staying in the second trade until the MACD begins to reverse. I'm trying to automate your system in an EA, to test this.

Thanks again!

Glen
  • #60
  • Jun 14, 2007 10:34pm Jun 14, 2007 10:34pm
I just finished a backtest for 5/31/2006 to 6/01/2007.

I used 1 lot- 1 Stop Loss and 1Profit Target

The best combination was

SL= 100 pips
TP= 60 pips

Minimum difference between the MACDs (1st and 3rd)= .00038

Results= +3540 pips

Avg. per momth = +295
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