Price is everything! #2 (PIE)

Hey Joel23, I didn't see a flag on the daily or 4hr timeframe for this pair, but I did see the source of the move for the daily and 4hr timeframe.

yep you got it well done.

you see the white square that you drew all the way on the left on the daily chart. if you go on a 4 hour time frame and look back at that level, you might see a flag or cap in price at the top of the move. thats a supply level and we are revisiting it. so this demand might not hold, but you could get a small reaction none the less.

what about your other chart?

this chart is a little more tricky! daily chart we at another supply source which you didnt mark out on the left. so need to be aware of that. look into a 4 hour chart and check out that area.


demand is just below i would say, but again depending on the daily supply that i marked out.



one is falling harder then the other tho. take out the euraud chart and see where we are at. make your trade according to that chart if we weaking or strengthening and also S&D they do correlate to one another. You can make better decisions regarding the two charts you sent me.

you need chart time looking at this method. I've spent 10 plus years looking at the same thing and know what to look for and how it moves. Over time you will start picking up more ideas about this method which should help pinpoint when and which caps/flags you should listen to. You'll also better at picking the correct supply and demand levels.

Hi,

im going to explain how my theory works and you take it, or you leave it.

before you continue, if you are a visual person, look at the charts first, and if you like to read and understand by reading, look at what i write and then charts. this is especially true for newbies in the block. for those who already have been trading and who do incorporate a trading idea already, i would say you have to relearn and look at a plain chart by it self with out you trying to incorporate your ideas into the chart. thats only if you want to learn my method. if not, then walk away and best of luck to you!

i would suggest to newbies, that you look at higher time frames rather then lower, this will help you to give more accurate signals and less ''noise'' when trading compared to when you look at lower time frames that will give you alot of noise and more data. alot of traders make this misstake of moving down time frames and looking at lower time frame charts. i also believe that in order to be successful, its your responsiblity to look at the charts and master what im going to explain and trade demo. when you are ready, start small with a real account. you dont need £3000 or £4000 thousand to start with, a simple £300, trading micro lots will do. this is true. if you blow your account you know you only lost 300 and not 3000. trust me you will feel alot better about your self.

I might add to this post as i go along or in the future so come back and read it when you want. now to the method.

THE METHOD!


What is supply. supply is price going down. what is demand? demand is price going up. the first chart with red and green circles are supply and demand levels. if you observe the chart closely, you will see that i marked out all the levels where price moved up and where price moved down based on this time frame which is the daily EURUSD. if you look closely, these are high and lows. now this is very important for you to learn in how to mark highs and lows. its simply red and green bars, green bars on the chart is demand, and red bars is supply. but the important part is you start with a higher time frame chart, mark out the highs and lows, then move down a time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

now that you marked out the highs and lows, you move down a time frame to the 4 hour chart. as you can see, the highs and lows still have not changed place and the circles that i drew have not moved. what you see by the circles is the highs and lows based on the higher time frame. what they have given you is more data, noise, or intraday candle charts by going into lower time frame. this is where people get confused because they focus on the lower charts and forget the higher charts main supply and demand. again the circles.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

now in this method, there are two ways of trading. you can trade reversals which are called caps, or you can trade the trend which will play out as a flag. trading reversals is harder because you are literally trying to pick when the trend is going to reverse and i only suggest you do this, if you understand the above and you are able to pick out highs and lows based on a higher time frame then move into a lower time frame and then pick the source of the move, again its harder. practice it. trading the trend is easier and involves finding flags in price which happen in the middle of the move. you also have momentum of the direction of the trend that helps you see where price is moving. most people sell short when the trend is going up, and go short when the trend is reversing from down to up.




from the charts above, the idea for finding reversals is going into a higher time frame, find the source of the move and mark them out, then go into a lower time frame and find a cap or flag right at the bottom of the move. in this example, the first demand was missed by around 20pips but none the less acted as a demand and source (no cap or flag). the 2nd and 3rd demand there was a cap or flag at the source of the move, and the reaction of it was the last two demand circles.






im going to try and keep it as short as possible. in a trending market and not picking reversals, you have momentum working in your favour, so same pair with daily time frame showing, go down a few time frames and you will see flags and caps.


In the lower chart, when you go down a time frame, you see flags like the bottom one, and if you go down to a 1h or 30min you will see flags by the higher demands.






the point is to focus your attention on higher time frames first and then go down between 1, 2, 3 and sometimes even 4 times frames to find the flags and caps. But look at all the time frames becuase one time frame will show you one thing while another will show you something else. So in a trending market you look for flags in the middle of the move, between demand and supply, and at reversals, you look at the source of the move and find a cap or flag.


Also if you have a flag or cap on the daily, and you look at a 4h or even 1 hour chart and it gives you multiple flags or caps on a lower time frame, sometimes it's best to trade the cap or flag on the daily leaving a higher stop then normal which also works.

For instance, the USDX chart and EURUSD daily chart that I posted in the previous page/s, it's showed multiple flags/caps on lower time frame which I didn't mark out but mentioned one of them and the lower and higher end zones to be aware of. If you get confused, stick with the higher time frame decision rather then lower which normally requires a higher stop loss.

i realize this is taking up to much of my time.

i hope this has helped a little.

i would say if people have question's, write them down on this forum and ill get back to you when i can.

take care everyone.

Joseph.

I'll keep it to longer term charts. Daily, 4h and 1h charts. Wont go into lower charts.

dollar index support on daily we are hitting but target is demand at 100. sentiment is net long, you want to be shorting this pair till we reach the target.

lots of shorting opportunities, but be aware of small and large pullback on LTF.

good luck

Joseph

you want to trade with the trend, as you can see!

sentiment is net long the dollar and the dollar is going down:
sentiment is net short the EURUSD and the EURUSD is going up:

think smart. don't trade like everyone else.

I like the set-up on this pair E/G it looks rather interesting for short if the 4hr supply area is tested. It does appear that there is a change of direction on the daily timeframe.

we technically in this weird uptrend on daily, and we just hit the low of demand. Sentiment is net long, so i would keep an eye on supply over head.
I think i would have bought from demand and just continue following the trend on daily to make things easier. but that's just me. but keep an eye on that daily supply as well.

also those two demands on daily that you marked out are not fresh. they have been consumed already. just a heads up. when this thing drops when it drops, if it drops, we will drop hard.

what do you mean by a change of direction? which direction?

USDJPY buy at demand of source of move. look for sellers on the way down to see if this demand will hold......

the trend at least on medium charts is bearish, and technically we entered a bearish market on 8h, 4h charts.

Hey Joseph, the way I learned it, there is a break in structure in the uptrend which signifies a change in direction. Meaning we should now be looking for sell opportunities. I welcome your expertise on this matter Joseph.

you are right, i also look at higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend etc, but from just looing at the HTF charts and then looking at the source of that HTF demand, i was seeing that demand on the previous chart.

on this chart, its the weekly EG, i was looking at that bullish momentum candle that we created. thats all.

taking into account, i didnt really look at the supply's of this chart.

so my miss take.

I appreciate it Joseph, no need to apologize I have learned so much from you these past few days. Here is another pair that seems very interesting.

yeah thats a good demand, but i dont normally look at this pair. look where its coming from on weekly and monthly, it will give you an idea of the momentum.

Ill have a look anyway and share with you.

weekly we are at supply! possible trend change here. on the flip side we would get a huge move north, but AUD seems to be at a pivot with alot of pairs that i have seen. so most likely is down.

i would say demand could hold on the short term.


here are the two demands that im looking at on 1 hour. good place to buy, with a stop below the low. again taking into account that this pair on higher tikme frame wants to go down.

my conclusion is i would look to sell personally this pair. if we do get a spike on this pair from this 1h demand, i would look for a nice place to short it.

but yeah i might join you for a buy here. swing it both ways.

stop below the demand low and give it some space. around 100 pips which is £10 stop or £100 stop depending on account size, or anything in-between.

j

sentiment index in net long, again you want to trade opposite side. im thinking if this trade is worth it lol

this pair is going down. momentum is down. supply's are being created along the way down.

we could get a spike, but pick your poison........

this set up is very similar to the EG set up row. same structure, its just this supply i recognise on weekly and EG didnt have any clear supply on daily and weekly.

tried a long at a flag.

Nice. I took a short on this pair. At the source of the downward move.

I'm also watching this pair carefully. I do hope it present some great opportunities next week.