Let's Trade Options

I'm not doing diagonals any more unless they go on for a credit....entered some a these today...

you may have to look further out than 1 week to find decent credit. Maybe better to cash out early also, if price moves in your favor. Rolling is another option - if you can do it early enough, possible to do that for additional credit.

Since Oct 27 low @ 4103.8....an 11% bull run. In 18 trading days, only 4 red candles, and 3 of those are spinners. A 1σ move south can fill the gap above 4440. Gotta believe they will take out the July High (4,607) and push further up to 4,700+ in December. Could be a grind, though. UST rates will control. Any 2 consecutive red dailies and I'll sell put spreads, otherwise, play the lotto north....

iv'a for SPX & SPY cratering, firmly contango. I remember seeing iv'a like 8-9% during some of the interminable upgrinds post-GFC. We are heading under 10% in the coming weeks if the bull run continues. One benefit is that calendars and diagonals are dirt cheap. If buying call spreads, they won't be hurt too bad by falling iv's, cuz there is not much further they can fall. Knock on wood. If I'm right about a Dec run to 4,700+ the 30c Dec15 AM/PM call calendar shown could make 25x....

MM's have been stingy filling the AM/PM, but only as it gets closer to the opex date...

watching UVXY as it drops below $10....looks like the last reverse split was around $6.50....outright buying puts can be good with something that is always guaranteed to go down. The 2nd graph is the value of the Dec08 $10 put, from 11/1/23 to 11/24.

Generally, I'd say: give it some time 2-4 weeks or more; never pay more than a dime.

instead of long puts, put flys can be an option - I see people hawking these on utube - generally you can expect better pricing on flys with higher volatility, so maybe look for these opps after we see a vol spike. If that ever happens again... (of course it will...)

VXX, taking a chance on long vol, these symmetrical flys are not gonna fill for a credit, but they will be cheap. There will be a pullback, lol someday...

I have a bid in for the following for tomorrow:

NDAQ Dec15 PUT at $0.85

I'll modify as needed based on premarket numbers, but I may go as high as $0.95 if I have to chase it.

Lots of success stories like this in 0dte. He is going uni-directional SPX credit spreads, entry atm, and rolling throughout the day, rolling down to the last 10 min. Turned $20k into $280k doing this in 2022.

This is actually something I have always been afraid to try. For one thing, I don't know if I have the screen time to be rolling well throughout the day. I am more in the small-ball camp, getting into 1dte or 0dte IC credit spreads at around 10-15 delta, @ $10-wide, to start - see below for Monday.

If I have time, I will narrate how I manage this trade Monday over here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14667835

...re: Dec8/11 diagonal SPX 4640/4650, entered for 25c credit. I will roll this in to Dec 1/4 if it can be done for additional credit or small debit and spoos is moving up in the week.

That should be:

DIA Dec1 354 PUT at $1.60 rather than 154 PUT at $1.60

In the following:

NDAQ Dec15 PUT at $0.85

Also, added to the following:

SKX Dec15 55 PUT at $0.45, bringing average down to $0.665

APH Dec15 85 PUT at $0.15, bringing the average down to $0.283. Didn't expect that to get hit so I wasn't watching it and saw in my notifications.

Time to look at the monthly opex SPX "AM/PM" call spread - it's showing 45c credit for a $5-wide diagonal @ Dec15 4650/4655. 4650 is close to the exmove for that date as of today's close. Whatever credit I get I will burn on XSP call vert hedges @ Dec15. The charts tell me 4650 could be a nice yearly high target, but Dec15 might be a touch early to get there. Nevertheless, opex comes but once a month.

I'm not sure why, but the MMs and their algos do not like filling this spread, but they will do so more readily the further out you put it on. We'll see about it in the next day or so. If spoos will break out north, the call spread credit will be better.

The 100-pt exmove south is around 4,450 - the $5-wide AM/PM put diag down that way is a 10c-15c debit - I'll likely put it on if they will offset the margin hit. Or not. I can't make a strong case for my own satisfaction that December will be bearish. And, if I put it on, I'll probably blow some $ hedging it. Maybe just stick with the no/low cost stuff....

SINCE the 11/14 blow-off, 7 of 8 td's have been dojis....today looking like another one.

Never short a dull tape, right?

Out of the following:

H Dec15 115 PUT at $2.55 up from $1.65

Probably has more downside, but it is butting up against the 10EMA, so I went ahead and got out.

Tried to enter Dec8/11 4,475 put cldrs today, got tired of chasing a good entry. Doubled down on bullish trades with the XSP Dec1/4 $462 cldrs shown, avg entry @ 12c...I kind of think continuing good inflation data will help the bulls tomorrow. If I'm wrong, I'm not risking much....

In the following:

DXCM Dec8 112 PUT at $1.05

This should make up should my Dec1 options not make it down all the way.

Double whammy PCE and claims, Idk what'll happen but really the only question I have is will the 4,600 call wall hold until next week?

In the following:

SKX Dec15 57.5 PUT at $0.65