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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,121
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:06pm Nov 14, 2023 3:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...big gap up bit me .....
Same here. My QCOM and DHI Puts took a big move in the wrong direction. I'm trying to salvage them with higher strike prices. It does look like the DIA/SPY will be ready for a move down, but I'm not sure it it will happen before close Friday, but I've had PUTs/CALLs wait until the last day to be profitable, so maybe there will be some downside markets for the next few days...
  • #19,122
  • Nov 14, 2023 11:36pm Nov 14, 2023 11:36pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} but I've had PUTs/CALLs wait until the last day to be profitable, so maybe there will be some downside markets for the next few days...
total FOMO meltup til Santa comes, it seems. There could be profit-taking this Friday, but I'd bet it'll be short-lived. I'll be selling put spreads on any decent dip...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,123
  • Nov 15, 2023 4:53pm Nov 15, 2023 4:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}total FOMO meltup til Santa comes, it seems. There could be profit-taking this Friday, but I'd bet it'll be short-lived. I'll be selling put spreads on any decent dip...
I kind of think we'll see good pin potential @4,500 Friday. Lots of unfinished business there.

Following is what I have for the week. I'll do an atm XPS fly @ 4,500 Friday if the above thought is right.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,124
  • Nov 15, 2023 5:12pm Nov 15, 2023 5:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}total FOMO meltup til Santa comes, it seems. There could be profit-taking this Friday, but I'd bet it'll be short-lived. I'll be selling put spreads on any decent dip...
To me, the DIA looks like it is setting up for some downward movement. Granted, it isn't the perfect chart, but certainly would support some movement down in the next few days. If it does continue to move up for a few more days, that just means the setup is going to be even more powerful for a downward move, probably into the 342-343 area from the current 350 now. It is going to want to try and fill that gap, I just hope it happens this week so I can eek out a little profit or at least a breakeven on QCOM and DHI. A big move down tomorrow and Friday would make me quite a bit of money, assuming these stocks follow suit.
  • #19,125
  • Nov 15, 2023 9:52pm Nov 15, 2023 9:52pm
I was looking online for a clean free version of J. Perl's "Trading with Market Statistics" - didn't find anything, but it is here:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-with-sd-bands

....gotta love Forex Factory. The file attached is worth a read.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Trading_With_Market_Statistics.pdf   557 KB | 435 downloads
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,126
  • Nov 18, 2023 11:12am Nov 18, 2023 11:12am
We should see indices grind up for Santa in the coming slack week. I'll be selling puts to fund bullish trades.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,127
  • Nov 18, 2023 11:38am Nov 18, 2023 11:38am
with SPX iv's crashed under 10%, calendars is the preferred risk
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,128
  • Nov 18, 2023 12:14pm Nov 18, 2023 12:14pm
RUT working on a mirrored H&S, with a common neckline @ 1850? RUT iv's need to come down another 4-5% for me to try time spreads on it. Note that huge gap above 1700, I bet that will fill in January 2024.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,129
  • Nov 20, 2023 12:38pm Nov 20, 2023 12:38pm
Maybe NVDA ER will blow the roof off the market, drag the indices up in this slack week?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,130
  • Nov 20, 2023 10:30pm Nov 20, 2023 10:30pm
Out of the following last Friday:

QCOM Nov17 119 PUT at $0.00 down from $0.89 avg

QCOM Nov17 123 PUT at $0.00 down from $0.90

DHI Nov17 118 PUT at $0.00 down from $0.65

Market pulled them both up, but charts still look ready to move down, though with this being a short week, it may not happen by Friday. But if it does, the following should make up for the losses or at least get me closer to break even on these:

DHI Nov24 126 PUT at $0.75

QCOM Nov24 124 PUT at $0.60

Since late October I've closed 30 trades (including those three above) and 27 were in profit, with several of them good money (like the NKE trades at the end of October.... because I had a lot of contracts), so I really can't complain about these. They will move down, I just hope the volume is enough for that to happen this week.
  • #19,131
  • Nov 20, 2023 10:33pm Nov 20, 2023 10:33pm
The DIA is getting close to coming down enough to make some money, so I'll be looking at some Puts on Wednesday/Friday right before the close (probably Wednesday because Friday is a short day), because I think we are going to see some downward movement next week when people start taking profits so they can spend at Christmas.
  • #19,132
  • Nov 20, 2023 11:07pm Nov 20, 2023 11:07pm
Quoting moneymaker2
....because I think we are going to see some downward movement next week when people start taking profits so they can spend at Christmas.
yep we are due for a pullback, if only a few %. Some chance they could get it going tomorrow on a reaction to Fed minutes, but I think that'll be subdued. The big news today was the big cave in 20-yr UST yields. Tomorrow all eyes on NVDA earnings..... If NVDA pops hard after hours, Wednesday could be a >1% bull day for the spoos. We could see a pin try @ 4,600 for Wednesday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,133
  • Nov 20, 2023 11:09pm Nov 20, 2023 11:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Maybe NVDA ER will blow the roof off the market, drag the indices up in this slack week?
before the minutes Tuesday I'll have to hedge the SPX diagonal, probably use XSP 460/462 call verts @ Wed expiry....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,134
  • Nov 21, 2023 12:48pm Nov 21, 2023 12:48pm
trying to fill the put backspread shown for a little downside balance
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,135
  • Nov 21, 2023 1:21pm Nov 21, 2023 1:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}before the minutes Tuesday I'll have to hedge the SPX diagonal, probably use XSP 460/462 call verts @ Wed expiry....
...filled these early, but 457/458 10/20 Nov24 ratio calls, 15c debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,136
  • Nov 23, 2023 8:13am Nov 23, 2023 8:13am
as iv's crater (<9% now on the calls shown), price of time spreads goes down. The 10-wide SPX Dec1/4 calls shown get a 30c credit - 0 downside risk. Instead of burning bp on hedges, plan on rolling up the spread if it is attacked. The latter can be done to retain the credit or low debit of the original trade.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,137
  • Nov 23, 2023 8:31am Nov 23, 2023 8:31am
if you want to go bi-directional, but still maintain the low or no cost trade status, buy a put vertical as close to the money as you can afford - width of thee put vert should be same or higher than the width of the call diagonal. As shown, a 1-lot SPX $3.00 put vert is covered by the credit from the call diagonal. I might use atm SPY put vert, $10-wide, in a number close to the credit from the call diagonal.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,138
  • Edited 11:46am Nov 24, 2023 11:36am | Edited 11:46am
Well, I was able to at least salvage some money out of the following Wednesday, so I'm glad I didn't wait:

DHI Nov24 126 PUT at $0.55 down from $0.75

QCOM Nov24 124 PUT at $0.40 down from $0.60

Yep, QCOM and DHI was not friendly.....they are dead to me!.... *..spits...*


But, like with any ex, you move on. That being said, I am in the following:

BURL Dec1 165 PUT at $0.65

DXCM Dec1 109 PUT at $0.75

H Dec15 115 PUT at $1.65

HIG Dec15 75 PUT at $0.25

SKX Dec 15 55 PUT at $0.88 avg

These should be good for some money. May get into DIA Put right before the close......
  • #19,139
  • Nov 24, 2023 11:51am Nov 24, 2023 11:51am
Bid in for the following:

DIA Dec1 154 PUT at $1.60
  • #19,140
  • Nov 24, 2023 11:54am Nov 24, 2023 11:54am
Quoting moneymaker2
Bid in for the following: DIN Dec1 154 PUT at $1.60
In the following:

DIA Dec1 154 PUT at $1.60

Actually got hit before I finished saying I had a Bid in on it.
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