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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,021
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:54pm Jun 13, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting melpheos
Are you crazy ? 1200 pips loss in a long trade would be sustainable because there is a clear up trend and everyday gives you 25 pips back in swap so holding the position for 48 days should recover the loss. But on a short trade, this is pure nonsense !!! There is no reason atm that the trend would reverse and you pay 28 pips per day to hold a loosing position...
well, i'm also still holding my short which is 210pips...and the best thing is my broker allow hedging so at the same time...i can still go long w/o extra margin maintenance and which i can profit for goin long with the same pair...as for the rollover..i can alwiz cover back with opening a long which my loss will be reduce to the min.......and only close my trade when they are in prositive number...been earning 200pips plus while still holding my short...
Never greed & never regret cuz tomorrow is another day!!
  • #6,022
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:58pm Jun 13, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting MooMoo
well, i'm also still holding my short which is 210pips...and the best thing is my broker allow hedging so at the same time...i can still go long w/o extra margin maintenance and which i can profit for goin long with the same pair...as for the rollover..i can alwiz cover back with opening a long which my loss will be reduce to the min.......and only close my trade when they are in prositive number...been earning 200pips plus while still holding my short...
210 and 1200 pips is quite different and what's more you seems to have a plan which does not seems to be the case of 1200pipsman
  • #6,023
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:05pm Jun 13, 2007 3:05pm
when did the market move 1200 pips? I'm counting roughly 215 since yesterdays's low.
it must be 6 lots with a loss of ~ 215 pips each lot.

chart pips folks. chart pips is how we count. it creates pandemonium when people state they made 1000 pips this week with such and such a system, but they really only made 50 pips with 20 mini lots.
  • #6,024
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:06pm Jun 13, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting melpheos
210 and 1200 pips is quite different and what's more you seems to have a plan which does not seems to be the case of 1200pipsman
yup, i agree...hedging can reduce losses...

nearly blow up my account when i started, save by hedging...

yet one must know the limit....
Never greed & never regret cuz tomorrow is another day!!
  • #6,025
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:07pm Jun 13, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting syerram2
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
Dang man, you sure have some persistence. I wouldn't be able to handle that, lol at 100 pips I would be freaken out. I take it you trade without stop losses? I don't even like having stops greater then 20 any more unless I'm up at a profit. But then I've never seen the benefit of holding on, it's risky and even if it does move back you're likely just to break even, unless you have the swap in your favor. It just seems more beneficial to get out early then get back in later most times.
  • #6,026
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm
Quoting syerram2
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
At what level did you sell? or do you have six lots with 200 pip loss each? You definitely have balls of steel to let everybody know of your situation.
  • #6,027
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm Jun 13, 2007 6:15pm
Hi all,
as i said yesterday, EURJPY has a had a nice up move....i think there might be still some gas left in it...wait for it to retrace a bit and then jump in...

GBPUSD has still not confirmed the signal for a short...hmmm...lets see what it does...
  • #6,028
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:42pm Jun 13, 2007 6:42pm
alright guys...yeah agreed the swap is against me..im hoping for a downtrend soon to atleast cut down my loss...id rather not close out at -1200...im hanging in there for atleast a day or two
  • #6,029
  • Jun 13, 2007 6:56pm Jun 13, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting syerram2
alright guys...yeah agreed the swap is against me..im hoping for a downtrend soon to atleast cut down my loss...id rather not close out at -1200...im hanging in there for atleast a day or two
To all you out there shorting GY. My advice is stop shorting and buy dips, at least until you see the price back to 238...With regards

Btw, this is a daily chart, I didnt cut it properly. If you see the perfect jump at the pip from the 38% Fib level and the uptrend line which has been confirmed now with this last 3rd touch...I dont see any reasons why shorting this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We leave no soldier behind.
  • #6,030
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:23pm Jun 13, 2007 7:23pm
GBPUSD has given a signal on my system for a downmove of atleast 40-50 pips....let us see how it goes...
  • #6,031
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:49pm Jun 13, 2007 7:49pm
hi all,
i shorted gbpjpy at 241.88 , it now -260 pips . whats your opinions of the price . i seem the price is will be down
Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #6,032
  • Jun 13, 2007 7:59pm Jun 13, 2007 7:59pm
technically, you should be right.
now let me give you a reason: why don't you look at nzd?

Quoting gagiul
To all you out there shorting GY. My advice is stop shorting and buy dips, at least until you see the price back to 238...With regards

Btw, this is a daily chart, I didnt cut it properly. If you see the perfect jump at the pip from the 38% Fib level and the uptrend line which has been confirmed now with this last 3rd touch...I dont see any reasons why shorting this pair.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #6,033
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:27pm Jun 13, 2007 8:27pm



thanks for your reply
Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #6,034
  • Jun 13, 2007 11:33pm Jun 13, 2007 11:33pm
Quoting Scrat
technically, you should be right.
now let me give you a reason: why don't you look at nzd?
Dear Scrat, I looked at NZD Jpy (this is what u meant right?) What should I see? Normally I dont trade it, but I see it made a retrace at 38 and now going back up. yeah there was the fall due to the bank intervention, but this didnt scare anyone, it seems. Besides, it is said that the New Zealand bank doesnt have much capital for intervention, so another one soon is not likely.

Now, I also have the worm of fear inside me, that it will fall, but my logic telles me to relax. It just fell 400 pips which were quickly recovered. Also UK CPI got out bad and market still went up. Besides, UY made new highs, after a long time. Technically I dont see any solid reason for GY to fall, and fundamentally, everything seems to be fine. Probably in the near future will make another retracement, but why start selling from now when you dont have the slightest clue it will really start going down? When you see it go down for real, you sell. Now it is just 100 pips below the recent high.

If you'd like, I would really enjoy if u explain your reasons. Maybe I dont see something. Thanx.

My only fear is the current divergence in moves between GU and UY, but for now UY seems to be the leader.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #6,035
  • Jun 14, 2007 12:51am Jun 14, 2007 12:51am
Quoting melpheos
Are you crazy ? 1200 pips loss in a long trade would be sustainable because there is a clear up trend and everyday gives you 25 pips back in swap so holding the position for 48 days should recover the loss. But on a short trade, this is pure nonsense !!! There is no reason atm that the trend would reverse and you pay 28 pips per day to hold a loosing position...
Hi Melpheos,

which broker gives you 25 pips back everyday. Mine gives me, well if I open a 1 lot long trade on GBP/JPY I get around 17 USD in swap everyday. Please let me know where I can get as high a swap as that?

Appreciate your info.

Regards

Mike
  • #6,036
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:23am Jun 14, 2007 1:23am
Quoting Michael O.
Hi Melpheos,

which broker gives you 25 pips back everyday. Mine gives me, well if I open a 1 lot long trade on GBP/JPY I get around 17 USD in swap everyday. Please let me know where I can get as high a swap as that?

Appreciate your info.

Regards

Mike
fxdd and actually it's 26$ so it's 32.5 pips/day
  • #6,037
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:30am Jun 14, 2007 1:30am
Quoting melpheos
fxdd and actually it's 26$ so it's 32.5 pips/day
Thanks for the info.

Mike
  • #6,038
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:33am Jun 14, 2007 1:33am
Quoting melpheos
fxdd and actually it's 26$ so it's 32.5 pips/day
You might want to check your maths, it is more like 3.2 pips/day
  • #6,039
  • Jun 14, 2007 1:41am Jun 14, 2007 1:41am
UK Retail sales a little better than expected. That might limit the downside for the cable. The next significant pound event is the BoE minutes, interesting to see what that holds, Merv King was remarkable hawkish last monday....
With the the $/Y pushing 10 year highs and BOJ not hiking again, guppy should be in for another run up to test 243 and hopefully beyond
  • #6,040
  • Jun 14, 2007 2:08am Jun 14, 2007 2:08am
Melpheos

I'm having trouble with my maths.

On my mini account I get around $0.81 per pip per mini lot.

After a thousand pips negative my account would be -$810.00

On the same account I get a swap rate of $2.05 per mini lot

if I held for negative 1000 pips it would take me 396 days to recoup my losses.
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
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