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The Swamp

  • #113,261
  • Nov 19, 2023 6:34am Nov 19, 2023 6:34am
Forever young...

A controversial tech millionaire says his father, 70, is now biologically 46 thanks to injections of his 'super blood'...
https://www.insider.com/tech-million...-years-2023-11
I am who I am
  • #113,262
  • Nov 19, 2023 2:52pm Nov 19, 2023 2:52pm
My strategey for Last Friday was to trade for a setup for a 3 Bar Daily trade triangle ahead of the FED meeting minutes on Teusday. There was a high on Thursday and a Low on Friday in place at the New York open. I was looking for price to stay range bound. The setup was still in place at the London close (marked on chart)

I have noticed in the past in the Futures market that the volume falls off after the LC. What happened after into the close looks like an options expiration gamma squeeze on much lower volume. My expectation is that on Monday the Europeans will push price back into the range, before it can go higher. My entry was at the end of the 1st 30 minutes of trade of the NYSE open. I think we will see that price again.

I am aware that the market can do anything at anytime so I will be present and willing to take a loss on this trade, I am currently down 10% of what I made last week so I am not on edge about it at this time. Good Luck!
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  • #113,263
  • Nov 19, 2023 4:12pm Nov 19, 2023 4:12pm
Yujiapu = Chinas manhattan.
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  • #113,264
  • Nov 19, 2023 8:36pm Nov 19, 2023 8:36pm
adding to short position 0922
  • #113,265
  • Nov 19, 2023 8:37pm Nov 19, 2023 8:37pm
Quoting FT.Trader
adding to short position 0922
correction 0920
  • #113,266
  • Nov 19, 2023 10:13pm Nov 19, 2023 10:13pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} i have to agree , we are fked i see cny news shows growth down so unless a upturn in growth i see a bleak picture and has far has the government is concerned they dont care
China has enough apartments today it can't fill. So lets say a the males parents die when he is 40. Let's say he was a loser. And lived with his parents. All he needs to do is live in the parents home. Let's say he is married with one child (owns his own apartment). When his parents die. He sells either his, or the parents apartment. The wife does the same. That's 2 more apartment's in a flooded market. As time goes on the population drop, elevates the the speed of devaluation. Today they already have to many. Tomorrow that extra supply grows. That's just basic math. The birth rate in China is not sustainable. A high % now have 1 child on their own. They spend a high % of income on the 1 child's education. So much so they dont have a second child. 2 people producing just 1 child is a drop in trajectory. Just to stay even with and death. It has to be 2+. China replacement is less than 2. So tonight, they already have to many {ghost city} apartments. Time and the elements will bring them to the ground. Salvage companies will mine the copper in those buildings. That surplus will end up in the copper market. This will have a 2X affect. First China's demand will fall. Second the scrap copper from those buildings hit the market. Copper could easily be below 2$ again.
About 10 years ago people laughed at my math here. They laughed about me saying, India passing China. Lets see how it works out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,267
  • Nov 19, 2023 11:06pm Nov 19, 2023 11:06pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} correction 0920
I'm goint to move my TP to breakeven which is the closing prive at 10 am Friday at the end of the first 30 mins of trade of the NYSE session. 0869

Today's high so far is 54 pips above Friday's London Close. My original target is now more that 80 pips away. My original entry point is 66 pips away. This trade is still valid IMO.
  • #113,268
  • Nov 19, 2023 11:25pm Nov 19, 2023 11:25pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} I'm goint to move my TP to breakeven which is the closing prive at 10 am Friday at the end of the first 30 mins of trade of the NYSE session. 0869 Today's high so far is 54 pips above Friday's London Close. My original target is now more that 80 pips away. My original entry point is 66 pips away. This trade is still valid IMO.
month average range 0935. 0942 the old mid point. 0862/0959 gold zone. PA bullish into it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,269
  • Nov 19, 2023 11:41pm Nov 19, 2023 11:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} month average range 0935. 0942 the old mid point. 0862/0959 gold zone. PA bullish into it.
Bigger % moves in FX than Bonds and stock indexes.

I was listening to Joseph Wang on YouTube. He said the 3 month SOFR is pricing in an interest rate cut in March however the demand for the 10 year is weak and he sees the 10 yr rate at 5-5.5% next year. It's really a mixed picture now.
  • #113,270
  • Nov 19, 2023 11:56pm Nov 19, 2023 11:56pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Bigger % moves in FX than Bonds and stock indexes. I was listening to Joseph Wang on YouTube. He said the 3 month SOFR is pricing in an interest rate cut in March however the demand for the 10 year is weak and he sees the 10 yr rate at 5-5.5% next year. It's really a mixed picture now.
I did some long term study work over the weekend. On the $SPX I was able to find the day of the low using a Decade approach. I've made a Monthly chart up using the Dec 2019 closing price as a start Last years close as an end. It appears to be a tradable roadmap. 12154 was the prior decade close. I think we could see that but what would be next...I don't think we close even for the year, probably higher because we have an election year ahead.

First chart is Monthly, Second is Daily. Same Levels.
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  • #113,271
  • Nov 20, 2023 2:27am Nov 20, 2023 2:27am
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  • #113,272
  • Edited 2:55am Nov 20, 2023 2:40am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}China has enough apartments today it can't fill. So lets say a the males parents die when he is 40. Let's say he was a loser. And lived with his parents. All he needs to do is live in the parents home. Let's say he is married with one child (owns his own apartment). When his parents die. He sells either his, or the parents apartment. The wife does the same. That's 2 more apartment's in a flooded market. As time goes on the population drop, elevates the the speed of devaluation. Today they already have to many. Tomorrow that extra supply grows....
Add the overeducation effect of gen Z/millenials and their discovery that real wages haven’t kept up with the rising cost of living, and u got a recipe for disaster for the stock market.
No one with a science degree want to work in a factory monotonously packing products or do repair works.
Most of them got huge loans to pay off, that they never could pay off with any of those jobs.

Seem to be a huge movement across the world of young people simply leaving the labour market, or skipping making career, realizing that they won’t be able to retire in the future and are most likely forced to work until they die.
At same time they see quality of taxpaid services like healthcare being obliterated, with only resources directed to the terminally ill or profitable diseases.

Even in China the youth caught up. Japan seems to be the exception, were cost of living is relatively low and the government has recently made sure that they get huge wage increases.

Edit: add the overcertification culture for different jobs and there is less people willing to spend time in switching jobs, due to they already spent years for their first education. Who wants to spend 3-6 years to get a similiar paying profession, if their 1st profession didn’t work out? They may not even be eligible for student loans anymore.

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  • #113,273
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:26am Nov 20, 2023 4:26am
That 0874 level is one of the first day supports to stay above. A little higher at 0913. 0862 a little lower. PA is very bullish. 0942 may affect it some. But before any decent confirmation. It would be down a bunch. The cross and close above the 2020 year close 0700. Can often yield 600+ pips. Here in that gold zone. Its a leap of faith (0862/0959). My day markers and week marker's are bullish.
1 algo at 0756, and another at 0706. Being so bullish it never looks to retrace. When the retrace comes is not known. When it does come. 0756 or 0706 area may produce a chance to buy. The same rule applies if pa slips below 0700 this year. That article from (large bank) about 1.0 this year (2023) looks like B.S atm. The gold area is where pa is now (0865/0959). If it would be correct. PA would take 0813 and 0874/62 to start.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,274
  • Edited 4:49am Nov 20, 2023 4:36am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting gatorinla
That 0874 level is one of the first day supports to stay above. A little higher at 0913. 0862 a little lower. PA is very bullish. 0942 may affect it some. But before any decent confirmation. It would be down a bunch. The cross and close above the 2020 year close 0700. Can often yield 600+ pips. Here in that gold zone. Its a leap of faith (0862/0959). My day markers and week marker's are bullish. 1 algo at 0756, and another at 0706. Being so bullish it never looks to retrace. When the retrace comes is not known. When it does come. 0756 or 0706 area...
GM. Still getting squeezed. I'm wanting to wait for the NY session to decide what to do.
  • #113,275
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:45am Nov 20, 2023 4:45am
Today is the Neap tide if you believe any of that. There could be a change of character in the market. I gotta say I'm a beleiver in the reversal after the first new moon after the fall equinox which was a week ago.
  • #113,276
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:46am Nov 20, 2023 4:46am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Add the overeducation effect of gen Z/millenials and their discovery that real wages haven’t kept up with the rising cost of living, and u got a recipe for disaster for the stock market. No one with a science degree want to work in a factory monotonously packing products or do repair works. Most of them got huge loans to pay off, that they never could pay off with any of those jobs. Seem to be a huge movement across the world of young people simply leaving the labour market, or skipping making career, realizing that they won’t be able to...
Japan is a energy sucker with few natural resources. They have to ship steel into japan to make a toyota. Shipping is expensive. Later they have to ship the finished toyota to another country. Energy is the most expensive cost in heavy industrial manufacturing. Plus the energy is also shipped. The coal inside iron is also shipped (to make steel). That's why U.S. automakers were located in a place where the coal was. It took 2 tons of coal to produce 1 ton of steel. The logistics in many countries dont make sense. Labor is not a high % of cost. Energy is the number 1 cost. That's why S. Korea, Germany and Japan have large production plants in the U.S. They dont need ships when built in the U.S. The energy is cheaper.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,277
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:51am Nov 20, 2023 4:51am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} GM. Still getting squeezed. I'm wanting to wait for the NY to decide what to do.
Yeah.. I knew 0765 could pull it. But took a shot it would run to 0406 after. after that maybe a retrace to 0700. This was wrong. It just ran after a little 0862 0889 speed bump.
0862/0959 being the second choice. The dynamics in the path started for me about 0886
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,278
  • Nov 20, 2023 4:56am Nov 20, 2023 4:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Japan is a energy sucker with few natural resources. They have to ship steel into japan to make a toyota. Shipping is expensive. Later they have to ship the finished toyota to another country. Energy is the most expensive cost in heavy industrial manufacturing. Plus the energy is also shipped. The coal inside iron is also shipped (to make steel). That's why U.S. automakers were located in a place where the coal was. It took 2 tons of coal to produce 1 ton of steel. The logistics in many countries dont make sense. Labor is not a high % of...
Speaking of Japan, The Nekkei 225 futures is down .75% and USDJPY is down .83% These 2 markets led the rally last week and are softening.
  • #113,279
  • Nov 20, 2023 5:03am Nov 20, 2023 5:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah.. I knew 0765 could pull it. But took a shot it would run to 0406 after. after that maybe a retrace to 0700. This was wrong. It just ran after a little 0862 0889 speed bump. 0862/0959 being the second choice. The dynamics in the path started for me about 0886
The EURUSD market looks like it's trading like a commodity.
  • #113,280
  • Nov 20, 2023 5:23am Nov 20, 2023 5:23am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} The EURUSD market looks like it's trading like a commodity.
Yeah the enthusiasm drives the market. It seeks a level. Later one side of the coin looks better than the other. It finds a new level. Sometimes the u.s. looks bad. But regardless, the others have the higher energy tax above the u.s. If Russia was not so corrupt. They could be a bigger player. They have the natural resources. But few outside companies want to invest in such a corrupt system.
FF at one time had many Russians here. They were playing the markets and talking openly. I dont see them anymore for years.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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