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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #6,001
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:17pm Jun 13, 2007 2:17pm
What's a good target price for the usd/jpy now that it's blown through the R3 resistance at 122.31 on my chart (currently 122.64)? I'm long at 121.54. Take profits or ride it out?
  • #6,002
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:24pm Jun 13, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting Scrat
it's not clear yet.
technically we are in bluesky, that does not mean that there will not be a reversal in this moving market but chance it continues to go up are higher than it goes down.

I think you will agree on this sentence
  • #6,003
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:41pm Jun 13, 2007 2:41pm
Now we need to wait for the jap markets to open before we see any more major moves

**EDIT**

243.85(M) 1% MA Env Top
243.00(M) Trend High Jun 5
242.65(M) Upper Bolli Band
242.30(M) Daily High Jun 6
242.00 at time of posting
240.40(M) DN TL Fm Jun 5 High
239.75(M) Hourly Support Jun 13
238.95(M) Hourly Low Jun 11
237.75(M) Daily Low May 15


UY and EY look like the moved as well. Showing more OB then GY on my charts maybe some scalping chances there
  • #6,004
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:44pm Jun 13, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting Sniper
Now we need to wait for the jap markets to open before we see any more major moves
were do you think that move will take us?
  • #6,005
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:50pm Jun 13, 2007 2:50pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
Some serious stops were triggered after 241.70.

And today is also TRIPLE SWAP WEDNESDAY!!!
Happy wednesday, my favorite time of the week, sexy time each week

I've been amazed reading the thread this week. Seems like most here were looking to short this monster, trying to pick tops. That's plain suicide on this beast. Patience and scaling in longs on dips go a long way and have made me a shitload of money. Shorting this monster has cost me dear though.
So, trade smal, focus on the larger timeframes (H4 & up) and you'll do well.
  • #6,006
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:52pm Jun 13, 2007 2:52pm
Quoting dirtymonkey79
were do you think that move will take us?

Up some more. Simply because they want more of what they don't have at the moment and are investing offshore. I might also cast an eye to NZDJPY and see what it does. Should start moving now. Wellington wakes up soon.

That being said this is just my take at the moment and it could go any where. This is forex after all where we all know something will happen and we just spend out time trying to figure out when and which way

my 2 cents

**EDIT**

Quoting FXCM Squawk Box
Ongoing anecdotal reports of Japanese investment demand, coupled with
actual data showing strong growth in Japanese foreign asset investment, helped
the cross as did a higher US stock market which fuelled risk appetite. Focus
tonight is now on NZ retail sales with data expected to be flat. (rs)/rd
From a briefing on the NZDUSD and NZDJPY gains. Look at all the crosses at the moment. GPYJPY, EURJPY and NZDJPY are mo focus for the remainderof this week.
  • #6,007
  • Jun 13, 2007 2:57pm Jun 13, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting Sniper
Up some more. Simply because they want more of what they don't have at the moment and are investing offshore. I might also cast an eye to NZDJPY and see what it does. Should start moving now. Wellington wakes up soon.

That being said this is just my take at the moment and it could go any where. This is forex after all where we all know something will happen and we just spend out time trying to figure out when and which way

my 2 cents
when would be allready enough to become incredibly rich. You can make money on any direction so if you know that at xx:xx the market will move strong, you can just put 2 order in both direction and delete the one that has not been taken, et voila

ATM, i dont understand this crazy surge.... Maybe, the recent report in US saying that China is not playing with his currency is underligning it...
  • #6,008
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:09pm Jun 13, 2007 3:09pm
I was wondering if tomorrow BOJ announce to increase interest rate, what's going to happen to this pair? (just like to keep you all heads up)
  • #6,009
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:12pm Jun 13, 2007 3:12pm
Quoting trader8686
I was wondering if tomorrow BOJ announce to increase interest rate, what's going to happen to this pair? (just like to keep you all heads up)
It will drop like a brick with no wings (i've never seen a brick with wings so that might explain that ^^ )

There is no reason whatsoever that BOJ will raise it's rate. There is still deflation in Japan. But who knows ?
  • #6,010
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:22pm Jun 13, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting melpheos
when would be allready enough to become incredibly rich. You can make money on any direction so if you know that at xx:xx the market will move strong, you can just put 2 order in both direction and delete the one that has not been taken, et voila

ATM, i dont understand this crazy surge.... Maybe, the recent report in US saying that China is not playing with his currency is underligning it...
Quoting Guys at Thompson say
19:52 GMT June 13 USD/JPY opened at 122.30 in NY and traded around 122.30/40 much of the session as option defense stalled a break above 122.50. In the afternoon, USD/JPY broke through 122.50 option barriers after the Beige Book fuelled triple digit stock gains, increasing risk appetite. The report suggested subdued price pressures which drove US ten-yr bond yields under 5.21%, down from 5.32% overnight, bolstering stocks. The Fed report noted strong retail sales and increased hiring, another positive for stocks. USD/JPY hit highs of 122.66.
Further supporting was the Kyodo report that Japanese investment trust holdings for foreign stocks outpaced domestic stock holdings for the first time. Data released in Japan overnight also showed over Y1 tln of Japanese investment in USD-denominated assets in April. Traders have heard talk today of more investment trust launches into foreign assets including AUD fund launches, and talk that uridashi issuance is expected to be increased by a third from original estimates for the month. Finally, the US Treasury currency report appeared to condone Japan"s low rate policy, another supportive factor for JPY weakness.
Beige Book causing the US stocks to hit up for the day.

Thats what I was banking on tonight/day. paid off for me and still paying. Waiting to see what the 4h bar will close at will be the big decider. I am waiting for a retrace on the hourlies to reset for a 4th lot then I am done for the morning. 1 lot from 239.25 still going, had 2 on 241.22 closed 1 of those 242.1 will more then likely take a 4th if retrace hits 241.80ish
  • #6,011
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:23pm Jun 13, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting trader8686
I was wondering if tomorrow BOJ announce to increase interest rate, what's going to happen to this pair? (just like to keep you all heads up)

I am keeping an eye out for that but will be out before that news comes out. No matter which way it might go I want to be ready for it
  • #6,012
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:31pm Jun 13, 2007 3:31pm
Quoting trader8686
I was wondering if tomorrow BOJ announce to increase interest rate, what's going to happen to this pair? (just like to keep you all heads up)
is that not out on friday 15th the day after tomorrow
  • #6,013
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:33pm Jun 13, 2007 3:33pm
Time zones mate times zones. He might be and Aussie or a kiwi in which case tomorrow for us
  • #6,014
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:48pm Jun 13, 2007 3:48pm
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
  • #6,015
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:59pm Jun 13, 2007 3:59pm
:surprised 1200 pips!!! You must have deep pockets!!!!

Hopefully it isnt many lots to pay on that negative swap. its trpile today.


Quoting syerram2
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
  • #6,016
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:03pm Jun 13, 2007 4:03pm
Quoting syerram2
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
there comes a time when you must let it go man. Those are emotions making that call.

Not trying to tell you what to do. How ever I would close and walk away take a break and clear your head. Think like numbers do then I would sit and retake all -1200 pips 1 pip at a time.

I almost broke my account like that when I 1st start got right down to my last dredges of capital. Took a 2 month break. Went and played poker at the casino every now and then didnt even look at ANYthing to do with FX. Came back a new man and was almost tempted to bolster the account but decided not to as a challenge.

Now I am back better then before and loving it. Poker tournies helped heaps for me. Got me thinking like numbers
  • #6,017
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:06pm Jun 13, 2007 4:06pm
it won't be long before all of the rookies go long, signifying a top then. I put a couple of long positions on demo to give it a jinx. should have known with everyone expecting the huge sell-off. why don't the senators just realize once and for all, they manipulate the currency, come right out and say it. they've obviously got them in the palm of their hand. don't you love red tape?
  • #6,018
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:18pm Jun 13, 2007 4:18pm
Quoting mcv-exchange
times shown (in light blue) are MT4 times.
As u can see the timepoints that i had highlighted a couple of days ago turned out to be good places to add to your long positions. See post #5889 for the "before" chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: time2.jpg Size: 44 KB
  • #6,019
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:39pm Jun 13, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting syerram2
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
Are you crazy ? 1200 pips loss in a long trade would be sustainable because there is a clear up trend and everyday gives you 25 pips back in swap so holding the position for 48 days should recover the loss. But on a short trade, this is pure nonsense !!! There is no reason atm that the trend would reverse and you pay 28 pips per day to hold a loosing position...
  • #6,020
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:52pm Jun 13, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting syerram2
I shorted this pair and I kept holding on to it in hopes that it would fall...Right now Im down -1200 pips...talk about a bad trade...i think im just going to fight it out and hold on to it
My God... talk about trading without a Trade Plan...
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