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How to read the market

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:38am Nov 19, 2023 4:22am | Edited 4:38am
I asked myself what's no 1 thing I need to know to help me decide whether to buy or sell. Maybe everyone has his own answer but the reality is one word and that's the trend. As if the trend is bullish then I will buy and vice versa. Every trader needs to know these 2 w letters where every candle is heading and why . I know it looks embarrassing for everyone but let's look at it this way, if I don't know tomorrow's gold ,oil or bitcoin trend then how I'm going to trade.
Actually let me go further by saying if I don't know tomorrow or next week high and low of btc,oil or dj30 then it means I'm assuming or waiting to get a signal before I trade which means I am not sure as I don't know the 2 levels which are the high and low of the day or the week. So it's very important first to identify the trend then the rest becomes easy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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just pay attention to the bitcoin cash chart on the monthly time frame and try to understand what happened in June this year.
  • #2
  • Nov 19, 2023 4:58am Nov 19, 2023 4:58am
Quoting zalzil123
I asked myself what's no 1 thing I need to know to help me decide whether to buy or sell. Maybe everyone has his own answer but the reality is one word and that's the trend. As if the trend is bullish then I will buy and vice versa. Every trader needs to know these 2 w letters where every candle is heading and why . I know it looks embarrassing for everyone but let's look at it this way, if I don't know tomorrow's gold ,oil or bitcoin trend then how I'm going to trade. Actually let me go further by saying if I don't know tomorrow or next week high...
Yes Bro! In my personal experience, I saw that the market stays in a trend for a particular time session, and before breaking this trend, traders can make their return.
  • #3
  • Nov 19, 2023 5:13am Nov 19, 2023 5:13am
Did anyone knew that we hit the high and low of the year with one candle
This is step no 1 to see where we are whether we hit the high and low of the year,after that we will check the weekly time frame.
  • #4
  • Nov 19, 2023 5:25am Nov 19, 2023 5:25am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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what can you see on the weekly time frame?
can you see the 2 lines that's where the coin will be trading
After we finish with the weekly time frame we will head to the daily time frame.
I like to see some comments.
  • #5
  • Nov 19, 2023 8:13am Nov 19, 2023 8:13am
Quoting zalzil123
{image} what can you see on the weekly time frame? can you see the 2 lines that's where the coin will be trading After we finish with the weekly time frame we will head to the daily time frame. I like to see some comments.
Hi
It's the old dilemma "the trend is your friend" but till now it's still an unsolved dilemma.
1) How you define trend? This is easy because you can have your own set of rules for it.
2) How do you know when the trend is starting?
3) How do you know when the trend is going to end?
If you have the correct answers for 2) & 3) than you will be ok for forever.
Cheers
  • #6
  • Nov 19, 2023 8:46am Nov 19, 2023 8:46am
If the market hit those lines, will be making moves after your plan?
Better go with flow and reduce shadows in the dark.
The only what you have in the hand is money management.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #7
  • Nov 19, 2023 9:45am Nov 19, 2023 9:45am
Ok first we agreed on the monthly chart that we hit the high and low of the year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What can you see from the chart ?
  • #8
  • Nov 19, 2023 10:46am Nov 19, 2023 10:46am
I don't know what I'm supposed to be looking for??
  • #9
  • Nov 19, 2023 12:27pm Nov 19, 2023 12:27pm
Quoting zalzil123
Ok first we agreed on the monthly chart that we hit the high and low of the year. {image} What can you see from the chart ?
Still a lot can happen and you cannot say for sure you hit already the H/L of the year.
  • #10
  • Nov 19, 2023 1:26pm Nov 19, 2023 1:26pm
im also following quaterly to monthly to 4h to 5min
  • #11
  • Nov 19, 2023 4:44pm Nov 19, 2023 4:44pm
First of all - my trading aproach is daytrading scalping, call it "grap in the cashbox trading" (like you are lining up infront of the supermarket counter, and when you are to pay and the nice cashier opens the cashbox, and all circumstances are good, you just grap in the box for some bucks and run away...)

Ok, lets be serious - the problem with the trend became very existential for my trading. I look mainly on the 5M chart with 1M as trigger and so when i talk about trends those are intraday trends which i identify on the 5M or 15M chart (mainly 5M).

At the beginnng of my trading It happend very often, that i open MT4 and i saw a row of 5M bars (10-20) nice heading up or down- no doubt, thats a short term trend for daytrader. The question was - should i go immediatly in for two-three pips or not? Why not-it could go further next seconds?

In most of the cases when i entered a trade based only on " why not, it could go further next seconds" the trend was over or a correction happened and the trade was a looser...

With some experience i added aditional criteria to my entry decissions which boosted on the one side my performance, and cut on the other side the number of trades in general and made me to learn "waiting" for the opportunity.

1.News anouncements and release of economic.statistcs
every trend can be stopped or reverses immediatly if important numbers or news concerning the underlying are released- it makes no sense to jump on a 5M trend if in the next minute important data are publshed.

2.Daytime and other points of time
Session openng/ending, London Fix at 4 p.m. for GBP currencies, are also time windows which could effect an existing trend.

3. Convergences
if i see a 5M up trend and on the other side convergence with Stoch or RSI, i become skeptical

4. Classical Ichimoku signals in combination with other idetifyers (sgniificant candles, support resistance lines)

5.Support/Resistance lines/zones on higher time frames
if the 5M trend heads to a 15M resistance zone, that means "caution"

6.Significant reversal or caution candles

Thats roughly (not going into details) what eliminated the looser trades significantly trying to catch some pips from a short term intraday-trend (not riding the whole trend, as i mentoned)
  • #12
  • Nov 22, 2023 6:48am Nov 22, 2023 6:48am
Do we have any updates, was interested in this subject?
  • #13
  • Dec 4, 2023 12:53am Dec 4, 2023 12:53am
Thats what i am hunting for -
in the mornng nice trend in bitcoin especially my prefered 5M chart - i am observing that actually for a "grap n the cashbox" - the stuation should occur sooner or later if the trend keeps on going
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14
  • Dec 4, 2023 1:19am Dec 4, 2023 1:19am
Quoting zalzil123
I asked myself what's no 1 thing I need to know to help me decide whether to buy or sell. Maybe everyone has his own answer but the reality is one word and that's the trend. As if the trend is bullish then I will buy and vice versa. Every trader needs to know these 2 w letters where every candle is heading and why . I know it looks embarrassing for everyone but let's look at it this way, if I don't know tomorrow's gold ,oil or bitcoin trend then how I'm going to trade. Actually let me go further by saying if I don't know tomorrow or next week high...
I'm seeking guidance on some general framework for reading the market. Occasionally, I find myself torn between two equally plausible perspectives on the market, each supported by compelling arguments for selling and buying. Having the freedom to choose either option makes me question my approach—it feels like something might be amiss
  • #15
  • Dec 22, 2023 9:23am Dec 22, 2023 9:23am
In that case, wait for a turnaround at that point and when it breaks the current high/low, enter in that direction.
  • #16
  • Dec 24, 2023 10:55pm Dec 24, 2023 10:55pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi It's the old dilemma "the trend is your friend" but till now it's still an unsolved dilemma. 1) How you define trend? This is easy because you can have your own set of rules for it. 2) How do you know when the trend is starting? 3) How do you know when the trend is going to end? If you have the correct answers for 2) & 3) than you will be ok for forever. Cheers
Good points 1, 2 and 3.
  • #17
  • Dec 28, 2023 3:41pm Dec 28, 2023 3:41pm
Quoting Cashbear
First of all - my trading aproach is daytrading scalping, call it "grap in the cashbox trading" (like you are lining up infront of the supermarket counter, and when you are to pay and the nice cashier opens the cashbox, and all circumstances are good, you just grap in the box for some bucks and run away...) Ok, lets be serious - the problem with the trend became very existential for my trading. I look mainly on the 5M chart with 1M as trigger and so when i talk about trends those are intraday trends which i identify...
What specific indicators do you use in your trading strategy?
  • #18
  • Dec 31, 2023 7:26am Dec 31, 2023 7:26am
As the results of that mutiple tmei frame are quite good, i only reveal that its an oscilator in combination with certain RSI data- the reason why i am not a Millionär right now is the fact that Signals occur in average one time in 1.5 HRS on one underlying and the best "pip-grap amount" is approx.1.5 - so someone needs a huge margin with one underlying to start making much money.
  • #19
  • Dec 31, 2023 7:38am Dec 31, 2023 7:38am
The solution For that Problem is to create an EA who runs on more underlyings simultaniously according to the Rules - thats what i am right now working on
  • #20
  • Jan 3, 2024 6:16am Jan 3, 2024 6:16am
in my opinion on HTF we can easily check the market direction and trend we can analyze the market structure
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