The Swamp | Page 5654 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #113,061
  • Nov 14, 2023 11:55pm Nov 14, 2023 11:55pm
Quoting FT.Trader
Look at the differece in price between Euro futures and spot. I wasn't watching but the futures took out yesterday's low, spot didn't. Futures closed Below the 200 day SMA, spot closed above the channel. There appears to be some imbalances that can be capitalized on. By the way, I took a WTI trade yesterday, made some money and exited, and then took a EURUSD trade and made ALOT more money. Don't let the daily pecentages fool you. My margin requirement for WTI was much higher. I should have stayed focused of FX! {image} {image}
I dug deep into this mornings imbalance on Futures vs Spot. I have a 15 second chart that would have give me 30 seconds to place an order. I would place a buy stop at the high of the 3 bar trade triangle with a 30 pip tp and a 50 pip SL would have been my best option and then I would have taken the London close trade the same as I did and currently in the 30 pip short trade.

I noticed in tonights Asia session that we came down and missed the high of the last 30 minute bar of the London close by 2 pips which was 21 pips off the high. If we get more than 50 pips above the London close I will raise my TP to 1 point above that 30 min bar High of the London close which is 1 pip below today's low 08658. Good luck.
  • #113,062
  • Edited 1:29am Nov 15, 2023 1:10am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} I dug deep into this mornings imbalance on Futures vs Spot. I have a 15 second chart that would have give me 30 seconds to place an order. I would place a buy stop at the high of the 3 bar trade triangle with a 30 pip tp and a 50 pip SL would have been my best option and then I would have taken the London close trade the same as I did and currently in the 30 pip short trade. I noticed in tonights Asia session that we came down and missed the high of the last 30 minute bar of the London close by 2 pips which was 21 pips off the high. If we...
WK chart seems to like this path. The original week candle used is circled. It, and 10$. Will get you a coffee at Starbucks. Does it mean anything now? I dont know. PA sometimes reverses at numbers like 0889. I had a reversal signal there on a 4-6-8-12h. The day was close to a signal. The last time I had one on a 4h. PA dropped 140 pips. That dont mean it will this time. I had hopes it would had closed below 0874 QR1, and 0862 (0835) yesterday. It did not close below. 0839.8 is on this chart. 0835 may be more meaningful. PA closed above all these non dynamic numbers. The dynamic overbought ones tell me its going to fall. Those real ones measure the strength.
Another thing is: PA reached the 50% 0862/0959 50/61%. It's time to pay attention. I had all these real levels work in the past. I also had them fail working against the dynamic ones. This range is so tight. A b/o North of 0889 is easy to spot. 1 adr below 0889 is 0819ish. 0878 74 62 can launch pa North. They all can be s/r. Below 0861.x. day closed could trigger more. Bulls have took this ground. Can they hold it? At the low a month back. The dynamic sign given on the week. Was the same as the one at 0.09xx last year. Since then, pa is here. Near 450 pips higher. Not nowhere near the pips of the last signal. Still the 4h sign has been worth about 140 pips. It has the 6 8 12h to help.
I
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,063
  • Nov 15, 2023 1:18am Nov 15, 2023 1:18am
Lets see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 6 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,064
  • Nov 15, 2023 1:26am Nov 15, 2023 1:26am
Flat now 0866. Been up for many hours. Back in the AM
  • #113,065
  • Nov 15, 2023 1:27am Nov 15, 2023 1:27am
Month average range North is 0945. or month average range South 0455. Between the 2 is 0700. The 2022 close is 0700.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,066
  • Nov 15, 2023 1:33am Nov 15, 2023 1:33am
Quoting FT.Trader
Flat now 0866. Been up for many hours. Back in the AM
Yeah, I got up an hour ago. Back to sleep. The 12h up next. Bears have yet to give a 1h below 0862.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,067
  • Nov 15, 2023 2:27am Nov 15, 2023 2:27am
A break of 0889 will be easy to see. My dynamic wont let me long. The next area to watch is 0910/42/60/83. There is a lot of confluence there. 0883 has a lot of interest. that's pinpoint but treat it as an area. There is a lot of stuff in the 09xx area. The dynamics around 0889, may force it down first.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,068
  • Nov 15, 2023 3:06am Nov 15, 2023 3:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, I got up an hour ago. Back to sleep. The 12h up next. Bears have yet to give a 1h below 0862.
test
1m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 1 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,069
  • Nov 15, 2023 3:25am Nov 15, 2023 3:25am
pulling some chips off near 0837.. probably 0839
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 1 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,070
  • Nov 15, 2023 5:32am Nov 15, 2023 5:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} WK chart seems to like this path. The original week candle used is circled. It, and 10$. Will get you a coffee at Starbucks. Does it mean anything now? I dont know. PA sometimes reverses at numbers like 0889. I had a reversal signal there on a 4-6-8-12h. The day was close to a signal. The last time I had one on a 4h. PA dropped 140 pips. That dont mean it will this time. I had hopes it would had closed below 0874 QR1, and 0862 (0835) yesterday. It did not close below. 0839.8 is on this chart. 0835 may be more meaningful. PA closed above...
That's a good point. The weekly charts are just loaded with wicks. I didn't see that. Your TA is next level compared to mine. We will most likely have a better picture of what's happening on Friday. I know if we fall I won't be attempting to buy any dips.
  • #113,071
  • Nov 15, 2023 7:06am Nov 15, 2023 7:06am
The rise was overdone. Im wondering if the big guys have caught the wind of an impending war and want to get people buying EU and GU dips while they send price back down with force? I won't buy dips this time if price falls.
  • #113,072
  • Nov 15, 2023 7:14am Nov 15, 2023 7:14am
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} That's a good point. The weekly charts are just loaded with wicks. I didn't see that. Your TA is next level compared to mine. We will most likely have a better picture of what's happening on Friday. I know if we fall I won't be attempting to buy any dips.
places like 0862/0910/0969 was/is where I use to get back on a trend. The trend since 2008 July has been lower. Yellow shows the low last year. To this years high in a circle. I really thought it may go to 0406 before this current bounce. But when the weekly dynamics bullish matched last years low. It conflicted with that. The smaller light blue one is where 0862/0959 lays. The same type of dynamic that was on the weekly chart was on the bearish 4h 6h and 12h.
PA may could turn off 0889 and never come back. But the better stronger place may be 0959/83. Near 0983 has a lot more confluence going for it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,073
  • Nov 15, 2023 7:27am Nov 15, 2023 7:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} places like 0862/0910/0969 was/is where I use to get back on a trend. The trend since 2008 July has been lower. Yellow shows the low last year. To this years high in a circle. I really thought it may go to 0406 before this current bounce. But when the weekly dynamics bullish matched last years low. It conflicted with that. The smaller light blue one is where 0862/0959 lays. The same type of dynamic that was on the weekly chart was on the bearish 4h 6h and 12h. PA may could turn off 0889 and never come back. But the better stronger place...
I removed the yellow, replacing with a lighter color. To show 0406. A place I think it will go. But it may still run up more before. You will see a lot of perfect hits on it. Too many to be all random
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,074
  • Nov 15, 2023 7:33am Nov 15, 2023 7:33am
First spike was up on EURUSD. First spike is usually wrong.
  • #113,075
  • Nov 15, 2023 7:38am Nov 15, 2023 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I removed the yellow, replacing with a lighter color. To show 0406. A place I think it will go. But it may still run up more before. You will see a lot of perfect hits on it. Too many to be all random {image}
Blue alone with the shaded box. (color changed, midnight blue didnt show up well)
Must include the not included 0983 spot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 8 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,076
  • Nov 15, 2023 7:49am Nov 15, 2023 7:49am
Quoting gatorinla
pulling some chips off near 0837.. probably 0839 {image}
close enough
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: < 1 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,077
  • Nov 15, 2023 9:06am Nov 15, 2023 9:06am
After the first 30 mins of the NYSE session, the momentum of risk assets has slowed. Futures like SPX NAZ US CL and the Euro trading below the daily VWAP. Russ 2k trading above and $VIX is still asleep. No FX position at this time. Small short SPX and Naz still in play.
  • #113,078
  • Nov 15, 2023 9:31am Nov 15, 2023 9:31am
Volume on NYSE above average. Yesterday's volume was Huge.
  • #113,079
  • Nov 15, 2023 9:55am Nov 15, 2023 9:55am
Quoting FT.Trader
Volume on NYSE above average. Yesterday's volume was Huge.
Not going to LC 0837 today, before LC. 0876/78 could resist. 0889 is still what it is.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,080
  • Nov 15, 2023 9:59am Nov 15, 2023 9:59am
Quoting Mitiblotch
The rise was overdone. Im wondering if the big guys have caught the wind of an impending war and want to get people buying EU and GU dips while they send price back down with force? I won't buy dips this time if price falls.
There been some technical problems on LSE and the real exchanges starting last week with the ransomware attack. Friday there was a halt in the exchange for India, their central bank got pretty mad.

Could have been due to technical uncertainty that a few days of trades wasn’t done, and that the volume added up yesterday for those missing days.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
66 traders viewing now