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The Swamp

  • #113,041
  • Nov 14, 2023 2:27pm Nov 14, 2023 2:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Understandable, the trend being up. Pa is above bull levels. Further short squeeze potential. I saw you mentioned 0888. Was it because 0889? 88.7%
No. I also have futures data. Call me crazy but the VWAP at the NY open on 9-1-2023 was 1.0901. I subtracted 15 pips for spot. I use that as targets sometimes. We just hit that number. I'm out and short now. It also works out to about 33 pips to the London close.

I don't think the Europeons will accept a price move higher without at least knocking the price back to London close.
  • #113,042
  • Nov 14, 2023 2:42pm Nov 14, 2023 2:42pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} No. I also have futures data. Call me crazy but the VWAP at the NY open on 9-1-2023 was 1.0901. I subtracted 15 pips for spot. I use that as targets sometimes. We just hit that number. I'm out and short now. It also works out to about 33 pips to the London close. I don't think the Europeons will accept a price move higher without at least knocking the price back to London close.
If we get 80 pips above the London close. I will fold the position
  • #113,043
  • Nov 14, 2023 2:49pm Nov 14, 2023 2:49pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} If we get 80 pips above the London close. I will fold the position
adr is about 70 pips. one adr back to LC. Leaves less room to climb. If its going to LC. S/L can take that run to get a good R/R ratio
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,044
  • Nov 14, 2023 2:53pm Nov 14, 2023 2:53pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} And it might make it
I wanted to write and it might not make it.
  • #113,045
  • Nov 14, 2023 2:58pm Nov 14, 2023 2:58pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} If we get 80 pips above the London close. I will fold the position
Think it can be back to 0706 by tomorrow?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,046
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:04pm Nov 14, 2023 3:04pm
oil tomorrow. A low inventory could weigh on the eu.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,047
  • Edited 4:02pm Nov 14, 2023 3:14pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Think it can be back to 0706 by tomorrow?
I don't know. I'm just a 30 something pip guy. I do have a friend that I know personally who is a good trader. He is taking a risk off trades at the close today short QQQ SPY and DIA. I took the short QQQ and SPY. Not that agressive in size. For EURUSD, I like the fade back to the London close trade and measure it from the high to the London close and also the high of the last 30 mis of trade.

It works the best for a Short when the Daily Slow Stow is overbought and a Long when the SlowSto is oversold. Good Luck!
  • #113,048
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:18pm Nov 14, 2023 3:18pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I wanted to write and it might not make it.
Maybe not Wednesday. I got a 12h dynamic signal for a short at 0886. Pa is near 0889.
Pa is near 0874. I see pa above key levels. It should be bullish. Just looking at this.
The trend was down since July. It's now taken back 50% +. 450 pips up, can be 450 down in a resumption. Its testing 0889. I dont want to be long against the 12h. I got a few shorts. 0700 is less than 1/2. Algo at 0706
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,049
  • Edited 4:43pm Nov 14, 2023 3:25pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Maybe not Wednesday. I got a 12h dynamic signal for a short at 0886. Pa is near 0889. Pa is near 0874. I see pa above key levels. It should be bullish. Just looking at this. The trend was down since July. It's now taken back 50% +. 450 pips up, can be 450 down in a resumption. Its testing 0889. I dont want to be long against the 12h. I got a few shorts. 0700 is less than 1/2. Algo at 0706
I got shorts too layered from 0824 to 0888. At 0830 I will get out at good profit. And that's the only trades I have on in all my accounts so I will gladly wait to take my profits when they come. The daily pivot is much lower than where price is and that should attract some tomorrow.
  • #113,050
  • Nov 14, 2023 3:37pm Nov 14, 2023 3:37pm
Look at the differece in price between Euro futures and spot. I wasn't watching but the futures took out yesterday's low, spot didn't. Futures closed Below the 200 day SMA, spot closed above the channel. There appears to be some imbalances that can be capitalized on.

By the way, I took a WTI trade yesterday, made some money and exited, and then took a EURUSD trade and made ALOT more money. Don't let the daily pecentages fool you. My margin requirement for WTI was much higher. I should have stayed focused of FX!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4.jpg Size: 214 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3.jpg Size: 198 KB
  • #113,051
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:04pm Nov 14, 2023 7:04pm
Quoting FT.Trader
Look at the differece in price between Euro futures and spot. I wasn't watching but the futures took out yesterday's low, spot didn't. Futures closed Below the 200 day SMA, spot closed above the channel. There appears to be some imbalances that can be capitalized on. By the way, I took a WTI trade yesterday, made some money and exited, and then took a EURUSD trade and made ALOT more money. Don't let the daily pecentages fool you. My margin requirement for WTI was much higher. I should have stayed focused of FX! {image} {image}
I can't decipher what one is what.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,052
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:08pm Nov 14, 2023 7:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I can't decipher what one is what.
Top chart is labeled @EC in the top Left corner is Euro futures The bottom chart is labeled EURUSD in the top left corner
  • #113,053
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:11pm Nov 14, 2023 7:11pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Top chart is labeled @EC in the top Left corner is Euro futures The bottom chart is labeled EURUSD in the top left corner
The futures price is normally higher due to a forward interest rate differential. The price become equal ant the end of the contract.
  • #113,054
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:18pm Nov 14, 2023 7:18pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Top chart is labeled @EC in the top Left corner is Euro futures The bottom chart is labeled EURUSD in the top left corner
Trading on a laptop. It was fuzzy when i blew it up.
It looks like the spot it above your 200, and futures below the 200?
I'm assuming the ma indi is overbought on both
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,055
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:25pm Nov 14, 2023 7:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Trading on a laptop. It was fuzzy when i blew it up. It looks like the spot it above your 200, and futures below the 200? I'm assuming the ma indi is overbought on both
Yes. I'll try Black background next time. Both definately overbought.
  • #113,056
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:38pm Nov 14, 2023 7:38pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Yes. I'll try Black background next time. Both definately overbought.
a few b's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,057
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:46pm Nov 14, 2023 7:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a few b's {image}
Nice. Is that a weekly expiration?
  • #113,058
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:48pm Nov 14, 2023 7:48pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Yes. I'll try Black background next time. Both definately overbought.
Earlier broke a week sar, and a day down trend. It closed the day above 0862 and QR1 0874. That's all bullish.
I kept the short using a dynamic overbought 12h atnear 0889 (0888.7%). I could argue both ways. I should step to the side. But hope it runs closer to LC.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,059
  • Nov 14, 2023 7:51pm Nov 14, 2023 7:51pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Nice. Is that a weekly expiration?
tomorrows
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,060
  • Edited 8:15pm Nov 14, 2023 8:04pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} Yes. I'll try Black background next time. Both definately overbought.
Hope this is more visable. 1st one is Futures (@EC) (6EZ3 at CME) second one is spot EURUSD labeled in top left corner. Let me know if this helps
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4.jpg Size: 171 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 3.jpg Size: 172 KB
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