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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,941
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:28pm Jun 12, 2007 11:28pm
Quoting ns_karthik
being short on this pair at this point of time would be a pretty dangerous thing to do...
Looks like you were right...
  • #5,942
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:31pm Jun 12, 2007 11:31pm
whoever shorted this pair, well sucks to be you right now.
  • #5,943
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:32pm Jun 12, 2007 11:32pm
Quoting trader8686
I am short this pair, and I think we are still in 61.8% retracement area.

hehehe damn!!! hope you closed it.
  • #5,944
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:43pm Jun 12, 2007 11:43pm
Quoting trader8686
So, what is this chart telling us?
4hr pin tells us that it rejected that price pretty strong and the 200 ema according to the professionals is an important ema and to be on the look out for something like the below attachment to happen.
Attached Image
  • #5,945
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:51pm Jun 12, 2007 11:51pm
Quoting goodthings
4hr pin tells us that it rejected that price pretty strong and the 200 ema according to the professionals is an important ema and to be on the look out for something like the below attachment to happen.
Yep was a good trade, I got in for different reasons myself (bounce off the g/u trendline and pa). Didn't think it was going to move that far or fast though. Looks mostly done for now, at least short term.
  • #5,946
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:52pm Jun 12, 2007 11:52pm
Daily Range Averages For GbpJpy
Attached Image
  • #5,947
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:53pm Jun 12, 2007 11:53pm
Quoting shadeslay
Yep was a good trade, I got in for different reasons myself (bounce off the g/u trendline and pa). Didn't think it was going to move that far or fast though. Looks mostly done for now, at least short term.
There is news coming up that could change course?
  • #5,948
  • Jun 12, 2007 11:55pm Jun 12, 2007 11:55pm
Range Of Motion (ROM) for the GbpJpy this year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpJpy Daily Range.jpg Size: 22 KB
  • #5,949
  • Jun 13, 2007 12:50am Jun 13, 2007 12:50am
Goodthings,
Interesting thing about numbers is that you can play with them to arrive at different locations.

When i looked at your numbers i spotted some differences to mine. but that is simply in the way we calculate the numbers. Now you didn't state if you count Sunday bars but mine don't, you just added them up and divide by 5 for example which is fine if all you want is a simple arverage but if your not careful you will get deceived by them. instead you should look at median numbers that way you get the middle point of there range 50% above 50% below. This will stop you from getting caught by any spikes or dead days.

Which one is better i suppose that is how you, choose to use the numbers.

Enjoy
Ademac
Attached Image
  • #5,950
  • Edited 3:37am Jun 13, 2007 3:25am | Edited 3:37am
It's heading to the H4 cloud, if it breaks, there is no "technical" reason why it should not retrace to it's latest high...

I say only technical because news are coming ^^

edit : hmmm i dont know how to interpret the latest figure... Wage still going up but less than expected and less person seeking job but more than expected...
  • #5,951
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:57am Jun 13, 2007 3:57am
Quoting goodthings
There is news coming up that could change course?
I was going from a strictly PA and trendline stance, but it looks like there was news.
  • #5,952
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:03am Jun 13, 2007 4:03am
GBP/JPY up ?
  • #5,953
  • Jun 13, 2007 4:42am Jun 13, 2007 4:42am
Quoting exchange
GBP/JPY up ?
seems to still be up, there is only the H4 ichimoku cloud in it's way for the blue sky.

EMA50 of M15 made a good resistance level.

edit : woops wrong chart... Here is H4
Attached Image
  • #5,954
  • Jun 13, 2007 5:00am Jun 13, 2007 5:00am
Quoting melpheos
seems to still be up, there is only the H4 ichimoku cloud in it's way for the blue sky.

EMA50 of M15 made a good resistance level.
Yep I would agree the current move up is still intact until proven otherwise. A breach of 240 would make me reconsider. Although there is a significant resistance level in the 241.40-50 area from the 4h down trendline and weekly r1. If something is to stop the move, that would likely be the area.
  • #5,955
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:36am Jun 13, 2007 8:36am
so as i had posted yesterday in this thread and my blog, the GBPJPY went up by a nice 100 pips from 239.10....my system says that the GBPUSD is also preparing for a nice down move by atleast 50 pips...but the signals are not confirmed yet...will have to wait...
  • #5,956
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:39am Jun 13, 2007 8:39am
Quoting ns_karthik
so as i had posted yesterday in this thread and my blog, the GBPJPY went up by a nice 100 pips from 239.10....my system says that the GBPUSD is also preparing for a nice down move by atleast 50 pips...but the signals are not confirmed yet...will have to wait...
Care to share your system?
  • #5,957
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:44am Jun 13, 2007 8:44am
it is actually a combination of elliot waves,regression and fibos....it is still in the testing phase...backtesting proved fine...so i am doing forward testing and have got 2 signals on it which both have been successful...it is based on a 4H chart and so i get only 1-2 signals per week per pair....not bad considering that each signal leads to about 100 pips...it is indeed boring but good trading is always boring...will let u guys in on it once i am comfortable with it...
  • #5,958
  • Edited 9:04am Jun 13, 2007 8:49am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting ns_karthik
it is actually a combination of elliot waves,regression and fibos....it is still in the testing phase...backtesting proved fine...so i am doing forward testing and have got 2 signals on it which both have been successful...it is based on a 4H chart and so i get only 1-2 signals per week per pair....not bad considering that each signal leads to about 100 pips...it is indeed boring but good trading is always boring...will let u guys in on it once i am comfortable with it...
Who cares it's boring ? Trading does not have to be boring or exciting, it just have ot be rewarding

1-2 signal /pair/week is around 8-10 signal/week if they are not on equivalent pairs (like euryen and usdyen )

800 pips per week should be more than enought to make a living

Price entering a small M15 cloud and very close of H4 cloud. H4 cloud is very tight as well so expect some move.

Also do not forget this news http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=33733 might be very dangerous and might create a preimpact that could be very very good to the yen (that means very very bad to carry trade )

And when i mean, it is indeed veeeeeeery bad.

Yen is underated by 20% just because of carry trading. Imagine a drop down of 20% on GBPYEN, that would count in the 5000 pips at a pretty fast rate.
  • #5,959
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:52am Jun 13, 2007 8:52am
Right Now I am short GBP/JPY since 241.30...should I exit or will the pair drop?
  • #5,960
  • Jun 13, 2007 8:55am Jun 13, 2007 8:55am
Quoting syerram2
Right Now I am short GBP/JPY since 241.30...should I exit or will the pair drop?
tell me what you think then i'll tell you what i think.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
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