Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The Franc May Continue to Strengthen amid Low Inflation



Today it became known about the level of inflation in Switzerland. Compared to the US, UK, and other countries, Switzerland can boast of a CPI of only 0.1%. The minimal increase in prices is due to an increase in fuel costs due to the rise in oil prices in the second half of the year. Thus, the country’s economy provides more arguments in favor of the protected harbor status.
On October 5, we wrote that the Swiss franc was near an important resistance, forming an AB double top. After this, the rate fell by 2.5% to form the October low, and now the chart provides a new piece of information for analysis, in particular about the 0.909 level, which acts as an important resistance.
The USD/CHF price has interacted with it before (as shown by the arrows), but note:
→ the level was able to stop the sharp increase on October 31;
→ did not allow the price to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the price only briefly stayed higher. The bulls were unable to gain a foothold above 0.909, and the rate fell to the lower border of the channel.




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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Show Signs of Life



AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb above 0.6450. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.5915 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

 

1. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6350 and 0.6400 levels against the US Dollar.
2. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6425 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.5870 support.
4. There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support near 0.5885 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6320 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6350 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6400 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6455 zone. A high is formed near 0.6456 and the pair is now consolidating gains.
On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6425. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near the same zone.

The next support could be the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6400. If there is a downside break below the 0.6400 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6350.
Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6320. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6455.
The first major resistance might be 0.6480. An upside break above the 0.6480 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6550 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6620 resistance zone.

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S&P 500 Analysis: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market



According to Friday's data, in the US:
→ the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% (expected = 3.8%). The last time the level was this high was in February 2022.
→ the number of workers employed in the non-agricultural sector increased over the month by only 150k (+178k expected). The last time the figure was below 150k was in February 2021.
Published negative data clearly indicate a cooling of the labour market. Why then did the E-mini S&P-500 futures price end the week up about 5.5%, marking the best week of 2023?
The point is that market participants are increasingly convinced that the Fed will no longer tighten monetary policy. That is, interest rates have peaked, the next step should be to ease them, which will allow companies to grow.



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US Economic Conundrum: Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Spending or the Job Market First?



It is a classic economic puzzle akin to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as interest rates reach their highest levels in over two decades, which vital component of the economy will give way first—spending or employment?
When consumers tighten their purse strings, businesses experience a drop in revenue, and this, in turn, can lead to layoffs as profits dwindle. Conversely, when companies reduce their workforce, individuals find themselves with less money to spend. It is a delicate dance, and the intricacies of this relationship remain a subject of much debate among economists.

For now, it appears that spending remains robust, and businesses continue their hiring spree. The key question is why? Some contend that the robust job market is driving consumer spending, while others argue that strong consumer demand enables employers to maintain a solid hiring pace.
Consumer spending plays a pivotal role in the US economic landscape, contributing to approximately 70% of the nation's economic output. Consequently, it acts as a litmus test for the overall health and trajectory of the American economy.
Determining which will weaken first—spending or hiring—entails consideration of various nuances. Factors such as the lingering effects of pandemic-era savings, varying degrees of pent-up demand for specific goods and services, and the ever-evolving economic landscape across different business cycles all come into play.

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US Dollar Falls after Weak Employment Data



The US dollar fell after data showed the world's largest economy created fewer jobs than expected last month, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady again at its December meeting. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month, the data showed. Figures for September were revised down to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's exchange rate against six major currencies, fell 0.8% to 105.29. Investors also paid attention to the decline in business activity: the indicator in the services sector from S&P Global in October adjusted from 50.9 points to 50.6 points, while analysts did not expect changes, and the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — from 53. 6 points to 51.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points.

EUR/USD



The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing the bullish momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the 1.0735 mark for an upward breakout, updating local highs from September 14. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0758, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0798. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0703, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596.
Investors are focusing on the October US labour market report, published on Friday. In turn, export volumes from Germany lost 2.4% in September after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while experts expected -1.1%, and imports fell by 1.7% after -0 .3% with a forecast of 0.5%. Thus, Germany's trade surplus in September decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros, with expectations at 16.3 billion euros.

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GBP/USD Turns Green While USD/CAD Eyes Fresh Increase



GBP/USD started a decent increase above the 1.2225 resistance. USD/CAD is recovering and might aim for a move toward the 1.3795 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

1. The British Pound climbed above the 1.2225 and 1.2315 resistance levels.
2. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CAD declined toward the 1.3635 zone before the bulls took a stand.
4. It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3660 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair found support near the 1.2100 zone. The British Pound formed a base and started a recovery wave above 1.2225 against the US Dollar.
The pair was able to clear the 1.2315 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it spiked toward 1.2430. A high is formed near 1.2430 and the pair is now correcting gains. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high.
The RSI moved below the 40 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major support at 1.2315. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2315.
A downside break below the trend line might send the pair toward the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2097 swing low to the 1.2428 high at 1.2225. The next major support is 1.2100. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2000 support.
On the upside, the pair might face resistance near 1.2350. The next resistance is near 1.2385. An upside break above the 1.2385 zone could send the pair toward 1.2430. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2500.

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EUR/USD Reclaims 1.0700 While USD/CHF Dips



EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0700 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now struggling below the 0.9010 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

1. The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0635 resistance against the US Dollar.
2. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0685 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CHF declined below the 0.9030 and 0.9010 support levels.
4. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9010 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0525 level. The Euro cleared the 1.0635 resistance to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0700. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0750 resistance. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high.
Immediate support on the downside is near a major bullish trend line at 1.0685. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0517 swing low to the 1.0756 high at 1.0635.

A downside break below the 1.0635 support could send the pair toward the 1.0560 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone to 1.0525.
Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0700. The first major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. An upside break above the 1.0750 level might send the pair toward the 1.0800 resistance.
The next major resistance is near the 1.0840 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0920 level.

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Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July



As the chart shows, the price of WTI oil has dropped below USD 77.50 – the last time prices were this high was in mid-July.
The decline in oil prices was contributed to by:
→ first, easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East and interruptions in the supply of oil produced in the region;
→ secondly, the data from Beijing. While China's crude oil imports rose in volume and value in October, the country's total exports fell 6.4% year on year, more than expected, CNBC reports. This points to a slowdown in demand in a world where central banks in many countries are keeping interest rates high to combat inflation.
Thus, supply forces prevail despite the fact that Russia and Saudi Arabia announced continued restrictions on oil production amid the conflict in the Middle East.



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Dollar Corrects ahead of Jerome Powell's Speech



Last week's weak jobs report contributed to a sharp rise in major currencies against the US dollar. Market participants assume that weak labour market data will force the Fed to change the vector of monetary policy. We will find out how officials perceived the recent data in the coming trading sessions. There are a number of speeches scheduled by important US officials this week that could either reinforce current market sentiment or contribute to a reversal.

GBP/USD



The British currency strengthened over 200 points last week and traded above 1.2400 on Monday. However, buyers have not yet managed to develop a full-fledged upward trend, and yesterday the price returned below 1.2300.
In the near future, the price may test support at 1.2200-1.2180. The behaviour of the pair at these marks will give more clues on its further pricing. A sharp rebound could contribute to renewed growth in the direction of 1.2500-1.2400. A breakdown downward may provoke another downward wave to 1.2100-1.2000.
Today at 11:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Tomorrow at 10:30 GMT+3, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Huw Pill, will speak.

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Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950



This happened for the first time since mid-October, when gold was rapidly rising in price on fears related to the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.
At the same time, the psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce demonstrated its importance.
Notice the volatility spikes around it — the bulls were active in the attacks, noticeable on the 4-hour chart, but all the progress made on the upward impulses was almost immediately canceled out by the bears.
The graph shows:
→ formation of a reversal pattern SHS (head-and-shoulders). With some subjectivity, we can assume that the “neck” level is around USD 1,970. But it has already been broken after a weak rebound;
→ the price dropped below EMA (100).




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EUR/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year



For the first time since 2008, the rate exceeded the level of 161 yen per euro.
The strength of the euro and the weakness of the yen are contributed to by different policies of central banks.
The European Central Bank's chief economist said on Wednesday that he had not seen enough progress in curbing inflation. This may mean a continuation of the ECB's tight monetary policy and the “expensive euro”. The head of Ireland's central bank said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes should not be ruled out, while the Bundesbank president said the "last mile" to the inflation target could be the hardest.
At the same time, in Japan, interest rates are effectively negative, making the yen fundamentally weak against the euro. The uptrend channel on the EUR/JPY pair (shown in blue) dates back to 2022. The stability of the trend is also evidenced by the upward-directed MA (100) — the rate is stably above it.




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BTC/USD Analysis: New High of the Year



The bitcoin rate exceeded USD 36,500 per coin for the first time in 2023.
This is fueled by pending approval of Bitcoin ETF applications pending before the SEC. According to the latest information, SEC representatives are in contact with the Grayscale fund, one of those who submitted applications. This increased confidence that applications would be approved. Moreover:
→ applications can be approved all together and then several ETFs will start working simultaneously, making it possible that potentially billions of dollars will be directed to the purchase of bitcoins;
→ this can happen before January 10, 2024.
The creation of ETFs will open up new opportunities for a wide range of investors to easily invest in the main cryptocurrency, while reducing the risks associated with opening an account on a crypto exchange, hacked wallets, or sanctions from regulators.
The BTC/USD chart today shows that the price of bitcoin broke through the USD 36,000 level on an expanding candle, indicating the strength of demand.
How far can the bitcoin rate go up?




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Gold Price Corrects Gains and Crude Oil Price Tumbles



Gold price is correcting gains below the $1,980 support. Crude oil prices declined heavily below the $80.00 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

 

1. Gold price failed to settle above the $2,000 region and moved lower against the US Dollar.
2. It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,958 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
3. Crude oil prices dived toward the $75 zone before the bulls appeared.
4. A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $76.90 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $2,000 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,980 pivot level.
The price traded below the $1,965 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,945 zone. A low is formed near $1,944.71 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. It broke a major bearish trend line with resistance near $1,958.
There was also a spike above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,005 swing high to the $1,945 low. It is now facing resistance near the $1,965 level.
The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,005 swing high to the $1,945 low at $1,980, above which the price could test the $2,005 resistance.
The next major resistance is $2,020. An upside break above the $2,020 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,032. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.
Initial support on the downside is near the $1,958 level. The first major support is near the $1,945 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,945 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,920 support.

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ETH/USD Growing Rapidly on News from BlackRock



As it became known, BlackRock has filed an application with the SEC for an ETF based on spot Ethereum. Information about the iShares Ethereum Trust appeared on the Nasdaq website.
If such an expression is acceptable, the price of the second cryptocurrency has gone in pursuit of bitcoin, which is rewriting the highs of the year amid expectations associated with the approval of applications for ETFs for spot bitcoin — approval from the SEC already seems inevitable.
In just 10 hours after the news was published, the price of ETH/USD increased by more than 10%. The excitement is fueled by speculation that other Wall Street giants may file bids after BlackRock.
The ETH/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of Ethereum came close to the year’s high at 2140, set in April;
→ RSI indicates that the market is extremely overbought, which means it is vulnerable to a pullback.




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Watch FXOpen's 06 - 10 November Weekly Market Wrap Video


Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: OIL FALLS, S&P500’s BEST WEEK, GOLD DROPS, EUR/JPY: NEW HIGH

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

 

1. Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July #Oil
2. S&P 500: Best Week of the Year, Despite Bad News from Labour Market #S&P500
3. Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950 #Gold
4. EUR/JPY: New High of the Year #eurjpy

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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GBP/USD Dips Again While EUR/GBP Gains Strength



GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2430 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8755 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2310 support.
2. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2245 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8720 zone.
4. There is a major rising channel forming with support near 0.8735 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2370, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2430 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2310 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.2250. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2200 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2187 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2428 swing high to the 1.2187 low.
On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average and a bearish trend line at 1.2245. The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2428 swing high to the 1.2187 low at 1.2310.
A close above the 1.2310 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2370. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2430.
On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2210. If there is a downside break below the 1.2210 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2185 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2120. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2040 support.

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EUR/GBP Analysis: Price Reaches 6-month High



In the fall of 2023, bullish sentiment developed in the EUR/GBP market: since September 1, the rate has risen by more than 2%, price dynamics have formed an ascending channel (shown in blue). Moreover, on Friday, the price reached its highest in approximately 6 months.
Growth drivers, among other things, are news related to the policies of the Bank of England and the ECB aimed at combating high inflation, and what signals the economy gives in such conditions.

The latest news about UK GDP turned out to be better than expected (actual = +0.2% for the 3rd quarter, expectations = +0.1%), but the pound sterling did not show a positive reaction, for two reasons from a fundamental point of view:

→ Firstly, the details show that a significant contribution to GDP growth came from imports, a category that tends to be quite volatile between quarters. Other key areas — notably consumption and business investment — posted negative results in the quarter.
→ Secondly, GDP may decline due to the fact that the high rate policy pursued by the Bank of England should be more fully felt in the coming 2024.
If the pound didn't strengthen on Friday on the GDP news, could the bullish trend continue?




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Bank of England Initiates Stress Test In Aftermath of Liz Truss Budget Disaster



In a groundbreaking move, the Bank of England has called upon more than 50 financial institutions in the City to conduct a comprehensive stress test, simulating the repercussions of a sudden and drastic movement in bond prices. This initiative marks the first financial system-wide stress test of its kind, reflecting the central bank's proactive stance in assessing and fortifying the resilience of the financial sector.

The call for stress testing follows the turmoil experienced in bond markets and the sterling aftermath triggered by Liz Truss's mini-budget in September 2022. During this period, pension funds faced significant pressure, and some teetered on the brink of collapse. The pronounced shift in bond prices and corresponding interest rates underscored the inherent risks associated with specific forms of liability-driven investing (LDI), particularly concerning retirement savings.
This pivotal stress test, involving major players such as big banks, asset managers, hedge funds, pension funds, and major insurers, aims to evaluate how these entities would fare in the face of an unforeseen swing in bond prices. The participants are required to model and analyse the potential impacts on their operations, with results due to be shared with the central bank by January.

The stress test encompasses abrupt and sustained fluctuations in the value of both corporate bonds and sovereign debt, encompassing renowned government bonds like UK gilts. The Bank of England's scenario involves a 10-day-long "shock to rates and risky asset prices," combining multiple elements to simulate a comprehensive market disruption.

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Dollar Falls against Euro and Rises against Yen



Last week, markets analyzed the results of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Representatives of the American regulator doubt that borrowing costs have reached their peak. Thus, the head of the US Federal Reserve noted that he fully admits one or more interest rate increases if the current economic situation requires it. Officials supported the idea of a possible tightening of monetary conditions if the rate of decline in inflation lags behind expectations. At the same time, the department is aware of the additional risks that a further increase in borrowing costs brings with it, but considers the American economy to be quite stable. In addition, on Friday, investors were disappointed by data on the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan: in November, the indicator fell sharply from 63.8 points to 60.4 points, while the forecast was 63.7 points. Today in the United States the October report on federal budget execution is expected to be published: forecasts suggest a significant reduction in the deficit from -$171.0 billion to -$30.0 billion.

EUR/USD



The EUR/USD pair shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near the 1.0685 mark. The immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0690, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise towards 1.0711. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0664, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0648.
On Friday, the single currency fell moderately, updating local lows from November 3 against the backdrop of statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve regarding the prospects for monetary policy. Last Friday's European statistics also failed to significantly support buying sentiment in the market. Thus, industrial production in Italy showed zero dynamics in September after growing by 0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.2%, and in annual terms the figure rose from -4.2% to -2.0 %. The focus of investors' attention today will be a summary of economic forecasts from the European Commission.

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BTC/USD Analysis: JP Morgan Analysts Warn of a Possible Correction



Last week, the BTC/USD rate rose to the level of USD 38k per coin on the excitement associated with the expected launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
However, as the week begins, bitcoin price performance shows signs that the hype appears to be waning:
→ the speed with which the price dropped from the upper boundary of the channel and the high of the year to the middle of the channel (about -USD 1,700 in a few hours) indicates the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ the price tried to resume its upward trend, but failed. This can be seen from the downward reversals from the level of 37,500
→ the fact that the slopes of trend lines (shown in black) become less sharp is also a sign of weakening bullish sentiment.
It turns out that after a pronounced surge last week, the price has already dropped below the median line of the channel, and the MACD remains in the red zone.




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