if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade | Page 4 | Forex Factory

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if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade

  • #61
  • Aug 20, 2013 10:44pm Aug 20, 2013 10:44pm
I'd like to try this out... Who here can admit that they are trading terribly? Making major losses with little to no wins? I'd like to run an account taking the opposite direction to each one of your trades. You do everything the same as you do normally, but I'll just hedge on the other side.

Anyone keen to give this a proper go?
  • #62
  • Aug 21, 2013 2:08am Aug 21, 2013 2:08am
Quoting trendytradin
I'd like to try this out... Who here can admit that they are trading terribly? Making major losses with little to no wins? I'd like to run an account taking the opposite direction to each one of your trades. You do everything the same as you do normally, but I'll just hedge on the other side. Anyone keen to give this a proper go?
It will not work, the reason people lose is not because of the direction of the trade.... think about it, if you randomly flipped a coin to decide to enter long or short you should overall be 50% right, but if that was the case why is the losing accounts percentage so much larger than 50% (95% they say but that is not true)...

the reason so many lose, is they do not practice good money management and good trade control. They over size their positions, trade in the noise levels with stops, exit to early or too late and basically do most things wrong. It makes no difference which direction you trade in if you can't manage a trading account and a trade position.
  • #63
  • Jan 20, 2021 2:07am Jan 20, 2021 2:07am
It’s not possible to get right 100% percent. First question you can ask what went wrong. Sometimes it’s wrong analysis, sometimes it’s early entry, sometimes it could be emotional. Find that make a note of it and try not to do that again.
  • #64
  • Jan 20, 2021 9:27am Jan 20, 2021 9:27am
I agree. The best one can hope for is to profit more than they lose.
  • #65
  • Jan 21, 2021 2:44am Jan 21, 2021 2:44am
its a very good question , actually which percentage is most accurate its not sure , generally we see this kind of statistic in all forums but we dont know its an authorize news or not ?
  • #66
  • Jan 22, 2021 6:07pm Jan 22, 2021 6:07pm
I have the proof that this is a bad idea

Let's say you're a complete beginner, trade on 4h chart and use a 100-200pips stop loss, with 100-200oips take profit.
Normally you use a basic rule:
if RSI > 70 sell, if RSI < 30 buy.

I did the reverse, if RSI > 70 buy, if RSI < 30 sell

https://i.imgur.com/wU29ZdJ.png
Net profit on a $5,000 account is -$4,600

Notice: if you follow the normal rule of selling when RSI is above 70 and buying when below 30,
you will still end up in loss but gradually. The reason? The market moves up and down a lot
The only way to overcome this and be a top trader is through risk management and other profit
making techniques.
  • #67
  • Jan 22, 2021 9:33pm Jan 22, 2021 9:33pm
Quoting Tedge UK
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.The only thing that is stopping us from being profitable is greed and fear,crack this and no matter what system, we should be all be in profit CONSISTENTLY? So whats your thoughts guys,I think reverse psychology plays a BIG part in trading
I think trading is not about winning or losing a trade. I think it's about becoming a consistently profitable trader. You can have 99 wining trade and 1 losing trade that ruin everything. I think trading psychology and trading strategy that also contain entry and exit strategy and risk management is the main part.
  • #68
  • Jan 23, 2021 11:41am Jan 23, 2021 11:41am
becoz market maker also know this very well ...i have tried this and result is same overall zero
  • #69
  • Jul 10, 2022 9:07pm Jul 10, 2022 9:07pm
Cannot work. The reason is spreads. If zero spreads, maybe got a chance.
  • #70
  • Jul 17, 2022 1:24am Jul 17, 2022 1:24am
Quoting profit100
becoz market maker also know this very well ...i have tried this and result is same overall zero

May I know, what was the process of your trade analysis? If you try properly, then surely you’ll be benefited!
  • #71
  • Jul 17, 2022 2:36am Jul 17, 2022 2:36am
me and my friends tried this method so many time ... this is also doesnt work
becoz almost all strategies and method have 50 % accruacy ..
and the major fault is Spread .. spread will give u 70 % losses
  • #72
  • Sep 4, 2023 4:35am Sep 4, 2023 4:35am
You're onto something interesting! While it might sound counterintuitive, the reality of trading is a bit more complex. The market isn't that straightforward, unfortunately.

The reason many traders struggle isn't just about doing the opposite, but it's often tied to psychological factors. Trading is a puzzle with many pieces. Even if you flipped things, the market could surprise you. Reverse psychology might have a role, but it's just one piece of the puzzle.
  • #73
  • Nov 1, 2023 10:22am Nov 1, 2023 10:22am
Wel... "All you have to do is do the opposite".
Hahaha, probably because when you are opening aordwer in the opposite direction, the market goes in the one you wished to have when you were opening the first order?
When you open an order and you are fully sure that the market will go exactly that direction you analysis hinted you, it may be reversed easily, because, for instance, there were more sellers than buyers in that particular moment, and volumes on sell were way bigger. When the order is closed, you think that you can easily open another one in the opposite direction, but those volumes have already vanished and there's nobody who would push the price up or down. Thus, the market reverses again.
  • #74
  • Nov 1, 2023 12:49pm Nov 1, 2023 12:49pm
The concept of taking out the nearest high or low and ordering the reverse when it goes that way is good.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #75
  • Nov 1, 2023 8:48pm Nov 1, 2023 8:48pm
I am new to this forum and for some reason I just bumped into a lot of sort of negative opinions, i read somewhere here though while still trying to figure out how this platform works,

I am new don't shoot.
I've grown up to a realization that the only way to consistently make profits is through skill i personally haven't seen or heard of anyone who's been consistant in trading due to luck.

That's my 2 cents on the issue
Obose
  • #76
  • Nov 2, 2023 4:44am Nov 2, 2023 4:44am
Hi I am new this forum, and apologies in advance for not answering the question but rather echo with the original question and maybe ask a few more.

I am personally going through these negative and doubtful thoughts about trading, I don't want to give up yet on trading (basically I am seeking some motivation guys)

If FX market is zero sum, no new money is created it just moves from losers to winners.
If 80%+ trading volume is from large banks, hedge funds, market makers who are the only ones trading in a supremely structured corporate style way and I a retail trader is the only around the table whose cards are predictable with high certainty, doesn't it put me at disadvantage?

I have heard of self fulfilling prophecy, if everyone buys price should go up, BUT who is the one who is wiling to sell in bullish market conditions?

I read somewhere that large banks and institutes are not always focused on making money of FX market, one of their primary job is to provide service to their clients who can be corporates smaller banks etc. If a corporate asks them to purchase 5 Billion Eur/USD at the rate of 0.9. For the sake of proving customer service to their clients wouldn't banks want to create conditions in the market so that their 5Billion or a mega order can be filled at more or less the same price? if that is the case, what changes do I need to bring in my trading?

Myself being a technical analyst on one side I see YouTube FX gurus claiming to have made 10s or million dollars in a very short time on the other side I see Jim Simmons and his medallion fund who is one of the finest Quants and has 100s of supremely talented traders along with all the computational power only makes average 66% return.


That's enough of the rant, Please if you know how the industry works, who are the players in the market, what their interests are and how can retailer be aware and adapt to this. If you guys can see where I have got it wrong please please please correct my course of direction.
  • #77
  • Nov 2, 2023 9:44pm Nov 2, 2023 9:44pm
The harsh truth is you can make money, but it's very subjective.

Risk a little, base your trades more on the idea that price will take out stop losses before going the correct direction.

I learned it the hard way that what i paid for was not all scam. But when you traid intraday is key. And if you trade daily bars, you must be able to stomach the gigantic fucking drawdowns and be able to have multiple entry where the total risk is still less than your normal single trade.


I'll give you an example of multiple entries.

If my lowest risk is 0.04 lots. I know very small, i will make .01 trades 4 x at good places. Or average down my trade to 0.04 for a better entry if it goes against my way and total risk is still the same as i would do one 0.04 trades.

My standard risk is 35 pips. Anything more i cut. And it hurts, but it's part of the game.

I also use trading view to trade as it is 100% better than other forms for me.

I have also made it that i exit not based on rr, but based on market structure and vwap.

So basically, you end up making your own model where you enter at the dip.

I have requested a cttrader x trading view tracker here in ff, but i so far has not received any feedback on it.
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #78
  • Nov 3, 2023 2:55am Nov 3, 2023 2:55am
Hello.
Quoting Furqi
If FX market is zero sum, no new money is created it just moves from losers to winners. If 80%+ trading volume is from large banks, hedge funds, market makers who are the only ones trading in a supremely structured corporate style way and I a retail trader is the only around the table whose cards are predictable with high certainty, doesn't it put me at disadvantage?
Why do you care what big banks, funds, etc. do? It doesn't matter at all. Your cards are not predictable. Nobody in the market cares about you. You are losing money because of your own mistakes.
Quoting Furqi
I have heard of self fulfilling prophecy, if everyone buys price should go up, BUT who is the one who is wiling to sell in bullish market conditions?
How do you know that the market is bullish? In order to buy something, there must be a seller. If you have the option to buy, then there is already someone who is willing to sell.
Quoting Furqi
what changes do I need to bring in my trading?
We don't even know how you trade and can't answer your question. Describe your strategy in simple words. Post your trades for the last month, and I'll tell you exactly why you are not making money.
Quoting Furqi
I am personally going through these negative and doubtful thoughts about trading, I don't want to give up yet on trading
It looks like you think that you have some disadvantages. You are trying to figure out what big banks do. You are watching YouTube videos where people make money by selling courses, not by trading. You are focusing on everything but yourself. What about you? Do you have a strategy? Are you tracking your trades? Can you tell a good trade from a bad one?
If you are trading charts:
1. Don't waste your time on YouTube. You can watch a few videos just to find something you may like and then fit it with your strategy. Overall, you will not learn how to trade using YouTube videos.
2. Open a demo account, 15 minute chart and study. Try to find something you like.
3. Forget about all these banks and funds. Nobody knows what they are doing, and it doesn't matter at all.
Want real help? Describe your strategy. Post your trade report for the last month.
Need help in a simple way? You don't have a strategy, you are overtrading and overleveraging, you are not sticking to your rules, your losers are bigger than your winners, you are adding to a losing position.
  • #79
  • Nov 4, 2023 7:32am Nov 4, 2023 7:32am
Thanks for your post and effort. You dont want to know…. Rajabanks…I just read your thread about him, your opinion resonates with me at every level. There is one thing he does and I havent figured it his trick yet he back tests live on random week and almost always pulls off a decent return 20%+ sometimes even 50%.

he goes to a website called random date generator, he enters the year, few dates are generated and ask the audience which date they prefer based on the votes he starts trading that.

My strategy is simple, trade breakouts.4hour support and Resistance, 30mim/1hour breakout.

i have spent over a year on online material, it is overwhelming and unstructured. if you have made it and can share some advice of how should I go about it? What to read, what to backtest or what not to.




Quoting BlaBlaFx
Hello. {quote} Why do you care what big banks, funds, etc. do? It doesn't matter at all. Your cards are not predictable. Nobody in the market cares about you. You are losing money because of your own mistakes. {quote} How do you know that the market is bullish? In order to buy something, there must be a seller. If you have the option to buy, then there is already someone who is willing to sell. {quote} We don't even know how you trade and can't answer your question. Describe your strategy in simple words. Post your trades for the last month, and...
  • #80
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:36am Nov 6, 2023 3:36am
Quoting Furqi
Thanks for your post and effort. You dont want to know…. Rajabanks…I just read your thread about him, your opinion resonates with me at every level. There is one thing he does and I havent figured it his trick yet he back tests live on random week and almost always pulls off a decent return 20%+ sometimes even 50%. he goes to a website called random date generator, he enters the year, few dates are generated and ask the audience which date they prefer based on the votes he starts trading that. My strategy is simple, trade breakouts.4hour support...
He can open the same date on another monitor and look at where the price will go. I don't think backtesting manual trading helps a lot. It's too far away from real trading. Just look at him, when he back tests live on a random week, he almost always pulls off a decent return 20%+ sometimes even 50%. But when he trades live, he is losing money, he can't even be profitable.
These are some tips that helped me:
1. Stop watching YouTube and all these trading courses. Of course, you can watch a few videos to understand the approach, but all of them are the same. If you have spent over a year on online material, you already know everything you need.
2. Instead of backtesting, analyze past charts. You are trading 30 min breakouts. Open the instrument you are trading (let's say eur/usd) on a 30 min chart and go visually through the last week. Can you see something you like? Something that you would like to trade? You should be able to see trades on the past chart. This will provide you with clear information about how many trades you could actually take. It's good to do this every day in the evening. Open a chart and go through a day. Do you see a trade that you could take? If yes, that's great. Now you know that there is a trade you like to take during the day, but you missed it. The next question is why. If you don't see trades on the past chart, then you don't know what you are doing. If you are trading 30 min charts, you can choose several currency pairs to look for.
3. There are two main options for risk management. You are trading with the same position size, or you are trading with a fixed risk amount. If your s/l has a big deviation (let's say on one trade it is 10 pips, on another 30 pips), then it is better to trade with a fixed amount of risk, so with 10 pips you are losing 10 usd, and with 30 pips you are losing 10 usd.
4. Open a demo account and trade for a few weeks. There is a much higher chance you will trade profitably on demo. When you are trading demo you are really learning how to trade. You are focused on the process and charts. Not on the money. Keep a simple trading journal and write down why you are entering a trade.
If you would post your trade report for the last month, it would be much more informative.
Can you post a chart and mark spots where you could take trades based on your strategy?
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