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Elliot Wave Trading

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Quoting branac
Hi africanpip,

Why do you expect wave B do be a 5-wave? So far, in all the books and analysis I saw, wave B is a corrective wave, and thus, develop as a 3-wave structure.

But than again, I am just a beginner.

branac
Hi Branac, I know, I was treating it as a motive wave of one lesser degree, following the main trend which was still up. and started losing focus on the bigger picture. I didn't think that the 61.8% fib level was high enough to complete larger wave B. I thought 78.2%. I have seen complex corrective waves made of 5 waves (of lesser degree) but these are not common. I got to keep things simple

If you have a look at a few posts back we were debating whether the abc-x-abc was finished, it was still nagging in the back of my mind that something else was going to happen, thats why I took profit when it hit 61.8% but still thought (because things were going as I saw it) it would move up a bit further before this drop and the way the pattern was going it certainly looked complex enough to have 5. But alas how wrong I was.

Thank you for responding, I am certainly no Prechter and if we can all analyse and debate together we can improve and hopefully keep this thread alive long enough for Charles's return and maybe we will be able to add more meaningfully.

So......Wave C down it is then.......

regards.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
So......Wave C down it is then.......

regards.[/quote]

Now that makes more sense. So how far down do you see wave C going? Doesn't it usually continue past A?
Now that makes more sense. So how far down do you see wave C going? Doesn't it usually continue past A?[/quote]

Hi Aysi

I am going for way past A, down to 95's in the the form of a 5 wave structure. I would even say 92's in 4-5 weeks time, depends how hard and fast cable drops.

If you think otherwise or have an alternate wave count, post it and lets discuss.

I am long now looking for retrace to 9830 area.
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Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
I think wave C reached its target at 1.9621 and may be headed up to the reason your long at the present time. Posting a chart would only confuse the situation (mainly me) and besides I not sure I know how. I can only configure the waves to explain what I see happening now. Where you have a B, I would place an A and your C would be my B and with that I can see an excellent wave C. Unfortunately my EW system is more mental gymnastics than structural design. My accuracy in identifying changes in direction leads a lot to be desired, but, that all said I picked up 28 pips this morning so it's not all bad. I can't believe more traders don't take EW more seriously.
Quoting asyi
I think wave C reached its target at 1.9621 and may be headed up to the reason your long at the present time. Posting a chart would only confuse the situation (mainly me) and besides I not sure I know how. I can only configure the waves to explain what I see happening now. Where you have a B, I would place an A and your C would be my B and with that I can see an excellent wave C. Unfortunately my EW system is more mental gymnastics than structural design. My accuracy in identifying changes in direction leads a lot to be desired, but, that all said I picked up 28 pips this morning so it's not all bad. I can't believe more traders don't take EW more seriously.

I exited that long on Friday morning because of no sign of any upward movement. I don't think the patterns on the larger time frames are as quick as what you say. At this stage (may change in the next hour or so) I see a wave 2up of C down which should (large C) end at the beginning of large 5, march 5. 91/92 area. If this current wave continues down today and tomorrow and in a big way, we may be seeing the first signs of a major trend reversal.


If it is the end of Large C as you say then we are on wave 1 up but I don't think so.
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Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
what about this counting?
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For what it's worth I also have the same count as Africanpip. I'm trying to get a handle on your count as well not saying its wrong or right... But I do believe once we see this small move up we shall see a strong move to the down side.....


Quoting 400396
what about this counting?
So I believe I'm watching the development of wave 2 or wave d. This spike up to 1.9721 can't go unnoticed. I'm seeing this wave peek at 1.9767 and then correcting for a wave 3 or e. BTW I stayed long from 1.9676 to 1.9700 but lost my nerve for an early exit. Now I'll try to catch the next wave down or up. But on the daily the bottom is a very strong TL. I would be surprised to see the G/U break through. I don't think the news will have that much effect. It may hit the lower TL and bounce back up with a new wave re-establishing the trend to 2.0030.
Agree here, . For 400396's count, a problem I see is the wave B. Usually wave B is a 3 wave pattern instead of 5 wave pattern. In 400396's counting the wave B is apparently a 5 wave pattern.



Quoting fixme1too
For what it's worth I also have the same count as Africanpip. I'm trying to get a handle on your count as well not saying its wrong or right... But I do believe once we see this small move up we shall see a strong move to the down side.....
Target: Trading naked.
The wave 2 may be developing a ABC pattern, while the C may be a 5 wave pattern developing on 5min. And at this moment it seems to be at wave 4 (flat sideway)... just a sec, let me post what I see and maybe you guys can verify it....

Here we go, it's actually clear enough on 15M. Short at the end of the wave 5?


Quoting africanpip
I exited that long on Friday morning because of no sign of any upward movement. I don't think the patterns on the larger time frames are as quick as what you say. At this stage (may change in the next hour or so) I see a wave 2up of C down which should (large C) end at the beginning of large 5, march 5. 91/92 area. If this current wave continues down today and tomorrow and in a big way, we may be seeing the first signs of a major trend reversal.


If it is the end of Large C as you say then we are on wave 1 up but I don't think so.
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Target: Trading naked.
Quoting aha
The wave 2 may be developing a ABC pattern, while the C may be a 5 wave pattern developing on 5min. And at this moment it seems to be at wave 4 (flat sideway)... just a sec, let me post what I see and maybe you guys can verify it....

Here we go, it's actually clear enough on 15M. Short at the end of the wave 5?

It looks OK to me, I would also verify the end of 2 on a larger timeframe, like 4H or daily. Draw fibs on the bigger waves because these larger time frames the more accurate it tends to be. I am working on the fact that a wave 2 usually retraces to 61.8% (or more) of 1, by its very nature as Elliott describes. I therefore have wave 2 ending above 98.

Regards.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
Well almost the perfect Elliott move for wave 2. As we said on Monday, wave 2 should finish mid 98's. So far it is certainly looking like it. Fundamentals and technicals working almost hand in hand, most evident today. Uncanny how b of 2 clipped 78.6% and then turned up, I got that childish excited feeling watching it unfold. So if all goes according to plan end of wave 2 up will be around 9850 possibly a bit higher (I have tp at 9856 at the moment).

I better go......damn Zebras are eating my wifes roses again.
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Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
Way to go! When EW is done right it can look really good.
Caught a few pips on the long G/U but pulled out too early. I anticipated a drop in the U/J 6/14 and nearly blew up one account with a -130. A wave 3 can be quite unpredictable. Looking forward to a new week. I think I'll stick with the G/U. Do the zebras eat the thorns?
I closed manually at 9826, that little trend line at the convergence of the 61.8 fib was bothering me all weekend. So I put myself out of my misery this morning (Watch it shoot up to 99 or something.....hehe). Anyway the thing I am most chuffed about is we said it would hit mid 98's about a week ago so can't complain if it extends past 61.8 and up to 78.6. It must just not go further at this stage because wave 3 down of C must now occur.
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Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
Quoting africanpip
I closed manually at 9826, that little trend line at the convergence of the 61.8 fib was bothering me all weekend. So I put myself out of my misery this morning (Watch it shoot up to 99 or something.....hehe). Anyway the thing I am most chuffed about is we said it would hit mid 98's about a week ago so can't complain if it extends past 61.8 and up to 78.6. It must just not go further at this stage because wave 3 down of C must now occur.
Dear Africanpip, what do you think the cenario will be after we broke the Fib 78.6 can you please post your chart with the forcast of the next move, many thanks for your efforts, By the Way Do Zibras like your flowers?
Quoting BillGatesJordan
Dear Africanpip, what do you think the cenario will be after we broke the Fib 78.6 can you please post your chart with the forcast of the next move, many thanks for your efforts, By the Way Do Zibras like your flowers?

Hehe...only the black one's with white stripes.

Back to the charts....Above the 78.6 reversal is a tricky area because it starts making you question wave counts which then brings up a few different scenario's, I think, for the most part, today is going to be quite choppy and in a narrow range while the market assesses the last few days and the next few. Should it continue up past 9970 and into the 2's we will have to change the wave count in order to reassess the next few steps.

So far the (last couple of weeks) the wave count has been more or less correct for what we have seen unfold. The longer the market stalls at this level the more confident I will become that we will see a 5 wave 3 of larger C down.

So until that changes I am going to stick with the current wave count. I am short, with relatively tight stops at 9985.


There are a few secenarios that this one could change into but as I say I will look at them when I believe the time is right. If you have a different wave count that is working for you then stick with it (as long as all the rules are being applied correctly) until you also see the picture change in front of you and until it does, we can only speculate.

Please note that I am learning EW all the time and that at no time should my wave count be used for your trades, your own analysis must be used for your own trades, if our counts agree then all the better for both us, and the more people that have similar analyses then even better as our confidence will grow. If you have a different wave count, then post and lets discuss so we can learn.

Kind Regards.
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Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
According to the rules wave two has to be less than 100% of wave otherwise an alternative count applies, so no stress we change the count slightly. Now in terms of the bigger picture it actually makes more sense now. I have looked at few alternative counts and this one makes the most sense at the moment. It would still be dangerous to long now unless to scalp a few.



the previous count did work well for quite some time so I believe we are on the right track here. Missed out on a quite a few pips at the end but seeing where we started c up not too bad, rather miss out than lose right?

I extended my short sl (believing in the wave count below). Also put a long in at 9901 earlier today which I think I will close tonight.
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Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
Quoting africanpip
According to the rules wave two has to be less than 100% of wave otherwise an alternative count applies, so no stress we change the count slightly. Now in terms of the bigger picture it actually makes more sense now. I have looked at few alternative counts and this one makes the most sense at the moment. It would still be dangerous to long now unless to scalp a few.



the previous count did work well for quite some time so I believe we are on the right track here. Missed out on a quite a few pips at the end but seeing where we started c up not too bad, rather miss out than lose right?

I extended my short sl (believing in the wave count below). Also put a long in at 9901 earlier today which I think I will close tonight.
I was about to post this cenario, but you did before. I fully Agree with this cenairo, I will be selling Pound start next week at 2.0020
Looks Good Africanpips!!!
Dear African Pip,

Even though I agree with you on the 78.6 fibo at 2.0022 but I dont believe that we will go down more than 1.9850 - 1.9800 maximum, Because I see an ending diagonal for the Big move on the GBP, if you look at the chart hereunder on the weekly frame you will see an ending diagonal a-b-c-d- and going now for the e which touches the uper line at almost 2.0400 and from there a very big drop is expected a one like the 1992 (Thousands of points down), because at that point the GBP will be ending the largest scale in the Elliott count. WHAT DO U THINK????
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