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My Bat from team aphid trades

  • #41
  • May 22, 2007 1:20pm May 22, 2007 1:20pm
Hello team,

Overall last week was a losing week. my current account balance is about -6% or 19330. its kind of hard to see my account balnce go into negative but I am still confidenet this strategy will work out.


Currently Open Trade:

Long Entry 1.9726 stop loss 1.9680 Currently positive about 18 pips.
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  • #42
  • Edited May 28, 2007 12:07pm May 27, 2007 6:40pm | Edited May 28, 2007 12:07pm
This week's summary:

well overall this week has been preety good. Current account balance:$20121...I was in the negative for past couple of weeks and it made me very angry. But I had to remind myself to calm down and look at the reality....I had to ask my self some sane questions, and I think I will keep repeat these steps whenever I doubt my system:

step 1: reexamine the backtest data to build up confidence again

Step 2: Is this strategy still working within its acceptable parameters?

The answer is yes. This strategy has been giving positive returns about 80% of the MONTHS. and the average return is 20% per month if I risk 2.5% per trade. so the answer was yes....My problem was psychological(Duh!!!) It wasnt a system problem, it wasnt money mangement issue, just plain psychological. when i see a strategy working, I get greedy and try to expect too much from it.

Step 3: Do I agree with the logical reasoning behind the system?

Yes.

Step 4: Is the strategy still above the lowest drawdown acceptable?

My personal acceptable drawdown is 50% for this strategy. in the backtests, the lowest drawdown has been about 30%. and last week's drawdown was only about 5%.


STEP 5: I just had to repeat these words in my head "IT IS POSSIBLE TO LOOSE MONEY IN FOREX!!!"

after going through these steps....I was back on track and kept executing trades as they came up.
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  • #43
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:51am Jun 1, 2007 1:51am
Quoting zalakinc
This week's summary:

well overall this week has been preety good. Current account balance:$20121...I was in the negative for past couple of weeks and it made me very angry. But I had to remind myself to calm down and look at the reality....I had to ask my self some sane questions, and I think I will keep repeat these steps whenever I doubt my system:

step 1: reexamine the backtest data to build up confidence again

Step 2: Is this strategy still working within its acceptable parameters?

The answer is yes. This strategy has been giving positive returns about 80% of the MONTHS. and the average return is 20% per month if I risk 2.5% per trade. so the answer was yes....My problem was psychological(Duh!!!) It wasnt a system problem, it wasnt money mangement issue, just plain psychological. when i see a strategy working, I get greedy and try to expect too much from it.

Step 3: Do I agree with the logical reasoning behind the system?

Yes.

Step 4: Is the strategy still above the lowest drawdown acceptable?

My personal acceptable drawdown is 50% for this strategy. in the backtests, the lowest drawdown has been about 30%. and last week's drawdown was only about 5%.


STEP 5: I just had to repeat these words in my head "IT IS POSSIBLE TO LOOSE MONEY IN FOREX!!!"

after going through these steps....I was back on track and kept executing trades as they came up.
Once again, you're recognizing your mental issues and reaffirming your confidence. Keep up the great work. I'm enjoying your analysis.
Mr. Trend
  • #44
  • Jun 1, 2007 8:09am Jun 1, 2007 8:09am
Thank you Mr. Trend. The more I trade, the more i realize its a psychological journey more than anything else. it sounds such a cliche, but its true.

Ok this is going to sound funny, but one thing that helps me keep on track is Amway CDs! I am part of amway, but I am not that active. but I still have some old CDs. and all they talk about is financial freedom, so some of what they talk about does apply in our business. and believe it or not, it does help me stay on track! so i guess whatever works, keep doing!
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  • #45
  • Edited Jun 7, 2007 11:41am Jun 4, 2007 2:21pm | Edited Jun 7, 2007 11:41am
5/23/2007GBP/USD1.979 1.9845
5/24/2007GBP/USD1.989 1.986
5/24/2007GBP/USD1.9845 1.9876
5/24/2007GBP/USD1.9845 1.9861
5/27/2007GBP/USD1.9871 1.982
5/27/2007GBP/USD1.9848 1.982
5/27/2007GBP/USD1.9846 1.9818
5/28/2007GBP/USD1.9843 1.9805
5/28/2007GBP/USD1.9832 1.9845
5/28/2007GBP/CHF2.4292 2.4335
5/29/2007GBP/USD1.9771 1.9791
5/31/2007GBP/USD1.9772 1.9784
6/1/2007GBP/USD1.9812 1.9784
6/1/2007GBP/USD1.978 1.9796
6/1/2007GBP/USD1.9784 1.9803
6/1/2007GBP/USD1.9791 1.9787
6/1/2007GBP/USD1.9815 1.9796
6/1/2007GBP/USD1.9815 1.9895


aLLRIGHT Here is the summary of trades from last week and today. Current Balance- $19782 Money Management level - 5. 20 more levels till million dollars.
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  • #46
  • Edited 10:43pm Jun 6, 2007 10:22pm | Edited 10:43pm
" I have noticed in last couple of days that if we dont use " X" indicator and just use the MA crossover...it still produces good pips. check out these two trades from last couple of days" this is the actual quote posted somewhere on this forum. its amazing how we make our trading decisions!!! by noticing something for a couple of days, it doesnt really have any stastical edge. if u ever think about making any change in ur trading system, make sure its backtested manually for at least 100 trades before making that change. that way u know for sure it has the statistical advantage. even a small change could do a lot of damage.
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  • #47
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:05pm Jun 6, 2007 11:05pm
Easy! Buy my hottest new indicator which is guartaneed to be accurate 99% of the time.... only $4995 for the first 100 traders. Just kidding!! )

Here is how....if you have a trading system thats 66% accurate and reward to risk ratio is 1. lets say on average it gives 24 trades per month. Out of 24, 16 will be winners and 8 will be losers. if you risk 2.5% per trade, 8 losers will even out 8 winners as you are winning exactly same amount as you are losing. other remaining 8 are your profits... 8 * 2.5 = 20%. simple!! NOw you might say that I am trying to encourage overtrading by taking 24 as an example...well then find 2 more systems. even if they give 8 signals on average per month...you can still make 20%.
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  • #48
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:51am Jun 7, 2007 10:51am
Dude, I know this is your journal, but you really need to re-format that trade data. It's causing everyone's browser to have to scroll all the way to the right.
Mr. Trend
  • #49
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:02am Jun 7, 2007 11:02am
Quoting Mr Trend
Dude, I know this is your journal, but you really need to re-format that trade data. It's causing everyone's browser to have to scroll all the way to the right.
Oh boy, I just noticed it. I just pasted it from excel. I tried to edit it, but edit button is gone on that one. dont know what to do. Sorry, will keep it in mind from next time.
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  • #50
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:06am Jun 7, 2007 11:06am
Now I know we all are focused on trading systems and indicators. but if you really want some good education(for free) on how to build a good trading system, money management and pscyhology, subscribe to Van Tharpe's emails. he is brilliant. I have learned a lot from him.
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  • #51
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:13am Jun 7, 2007 11:13am
Hi zalakinc,

I like your journal and I like the BAT system. I know you only use gbp/usd for trading, but what time frame do you use?

Thank you! keep the good work!
  • #52
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:36am Jun 7, 2007 11:36am
Quoting FXed2
Hi zalakinc,

I like your journal and I like the BAT system. I know you only use gbp/usd for trading, but what time frame do you use?

Thank you! keep the good work!
I use 1 hour time frame. your trades might be a bit different than mine because what happend is i forgot to change the defaults on atr and factor before doing a year's worht of manual backtesting. When I do backtesting, I always do it for the year 2004. Why? because if its a curve fitting system, it most likely was curve fitted to 2006 data. but even with the default settings of 3,3 , I was able to come up with great results for 2004. so i just decided to go ahead and trade that. I emailed teamaphid to ask what better result they got with their settings? because I was coming up with average return of 20% per month by risking 2.5% per trade and over 80% months profitable. Plus the drawdown was only about 25%. what more could you expect! Teamaphid said they decided to go with 5,4 setting because it was subject to less whipsaws. I will do the backtest again with the correct settings sometimes in next month or so. BTW, I was able to make about $1700 in last couple of days. I took the profits early for both winners, whcih i shoudlnt have. it really does take a lot to follow this system to the t. But overall, I have been able to follow it 90% of the time. thats not acceptable though, I am improving myself to follow it to 100%. its been a great system!
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  • #53
  • Jun 7, 2007 11:49am Jun 7, 2007 11:49am
I had some challenges regarding how to follow this system and still have a life. SO here is the plan I came up with:

Step 1 - DONT LOOK AT THE CHARTS ALL THE TIME, I'LL DISCIPLINE MYSELF TO LOOK AT THE CHARTS ONCE EVERY TWO HOURS ONLY.

STEP 2 - SET UP A REMINDER ON MY PDA THAT REOCCURS EVERY 2 HOURS. THAT WAY I DONT FORGET.

STEP 3 - WHEN I DO CHECK IT...HERE ARE THE STEPS I TAKE
A - ADJUST STOP LOSS ACCORDING TO THE BAT LINE
B - ADJUST MY STOP/LIMIT ORDER FOR THE OPPOSITE SIDE TRADE 3 PIPS ABOVE/BELOW THE BAT LINE
C - SET UP ALERTS IN METATRADER AND ALERTFX.COM TO NOTIFY ME WHEN EITHER 161.8 IS HIT OR BAT LINE IS HIT. BCOZ WHEN BAT LINE IS HIT, I HAVE TO ENTER THE FIB TRADE ORDERS, AND WHEN 161.8 IS HIT, I HAVE TO CANCEL THOSE ORDERS.

Bat still wakes me up at night after implementing this plan, but only like once or twice a week, instead of every night that i used to put alarm and annoy my wife.
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  • #54
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:17am Jun 8, 2007 7:17am
Quoting zalakinc
I use 1 hour time frame. your trades might be a bit different than mine because what happend is i forgot to change the defaults on atr and factor before doing a year's worht of manual backtesting. When I do backtesting, I always do it for the year 2004. Why? because if its a curve fitting system, it most likely was curve fitted to 2006 data. but even with the default settings of 3,3 , I was able to come up with great results for 2004. so i just decided to go ahead and trade that. I emailed teamaphid to ask what better result they got with their settings? because I was coming up with average return of 20% per month by risking 2.5% per trade and over 80% months profitable. Plus the drawdown was only about 25%. what more could you expect! Teamaphid said they decided to go with 5,4 setting because it was subject to less whipsaws. I will do the backtest again with the correct settings sometimes in next month or so. BTW, I was able to make about $1700 in last couple of days. I took the profits early for both winners, whcih i shoudlnt have. it really does take a lot to follow this system to the t. But overall, I have been able to follow it 90% of the time. thats not acceptable though, I am improving myself to follow it to 100%. its been a great system!
Thank you for your great explanation! keep the good work!

Regards!
  • #55
  • Edited Jun 9, 2007 12:58pm Jun 8, 2007 1:18pm | Edited Jun 9, 2007 12:58pm
When you commit to a trading system, make sure you always have this quesiton in mind. When will you stop trading this strategy? will it be if you have negative returns for 3 months in a row? will it be if you have 30% drawdown? Many traders suffer from one of the two diseases. either overcommitment or undercommitment to a strategy. Undercommitment is basically they know the strategy is profitable but they still wouldnt trade it because Making money in forex is not a **MUST** for them. or they are just looking for variety. The overcommitmetn problem only happens probably to seasoned traders. lets say this bat strategy makes you money for 3-4 years. and we always hope it will work forever but may be the market conditions change and current system stops working. at what point will you stop trading the system? how will you deal with the ego problems? You need to answer this question in the initial phases. For this strategy, I have decided 5 months negative in a raw, or 40% drawdown willl make me stop trading this strategy. Untill then, I am committed to it much like i am committed to my wife.
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  • #56
  • Edited Jun 9, 2007 12:49pm Jun 8, 2007 1:26pm | Edited Jun 9, 2007 12:49pm
If you are a newbie, or a seasoned pro, and you are failing at forex....may be this will help.

Ask yourself....what need is forex fulfilling for you? If you keep jumping to the newest and hottest indicators, may be its your need for variety that forex is fulfilling. if you keep trading impulsively, its probably the need for excitement. if you just take things lightly, may be its your need for "Time pass" that forex is fulfilling. and after you do these things, you will keep asking your self...why do i do this? Well, because we all have needs. Make sure the only need you expect forex trading to fulfill is "BURNING DESIRE FOR CONSISTENT PROFITS". this doesnt mean ignore your need for excitement or variety. if you will ignore those needs, they will keep resurfacing and you will trade impulsively or buy newest and hottest systems! but instead, make sure those needs are fulfilled by other means....like doing something exciting and new every week, or whatever. but DO NOT EXPECT FOREX TO FULFILL THese needs, or you will crash and burn!!!
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  • #57
  • Edited 1:39pm Jun 8, 2007 1:27pm | Edited 1:39pm
Here is copy of my conversation with Rob Booker, check out his blog when you get a chance. Smart guy!


_
Rob Booker Wrote:

You are sooooo right. You completely understand.

Rob



On 6/8/07, Zalak Thakkar wrote:

This blog entry was absolutely right on the money. Recently I found a couple of strategies that I backtested for 2 years and found them to be excellent. So I started trading them live and last month and this month has been probably first months that I have made positive gains in forex .I am already up 10% and its only 7th of the month. So I mentioned these strategies to my couple of trader friends, and I was surprised they wouldn't even consider putting an alarm at night that might wake them up once a week or so….all people care about is convenience and comfort. When it comes time to step beyond their comfort zone and do something uncomfortable, they almost always back out. It just amazes me that the same ppl complain about money…yet they are so close to success still so far away!!!







--
Read Rob's blog at: http://www.piptopia.com
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  • #58
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:10am Jun 11, 2007 2:10am
I hope you caught the big move last week, as I see it it was a Full Monty and still open. It would have really boosted the account!
Good Luck, I am following your posts with interest
  • #59
  • Jun 11, 2007 7:09pm Jun 11, 2007 7:09pm
Quoting richo12
I hope you caught the big move last week, as I see it it was a Full Monty and still open. It would have really boosted the account!
Good Luck, I am following your posts with interest

Yes, it really boosted the account. I took some profits earlier than i should have.
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  • #60
  • Jun 11, 2007 7:19pm Jun 11, 2007 7:19pm

A Game of Inches
You find out that life is just a game of inches.
So is football.
Because in either game
life or football
the margin for error is so small.
I mean
one half step too late or to early
you don't quite make it.
One half second too slow or too fast
and you don't quite catch it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in ever break of the game
every minute, every second.
- Al Pacino Any Given Sunday

Think of this and how this applies to trading and stop losses. Credit goes to Boris and Kathy.

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