Um, what just happened in New Zealand? | Forex Factory

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Um, what just happened in New Zealand?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 10, 2007 9:45pm Jun 10, 2007 9:45pm
I'm just curious what just happened to spike AUDNZD? I was short on AUDNZD with the position slowly moving in my favor and no news releases on the horizon, but I was just stopped out when the price spiked 100 pips in a matter of 2 minutes.

I'm not whining about market occurences. It's just another trade. But I'm just curious what happened to move the price so fast?
  • #2
  • Jun 10, 2007 9:59pm Jun 10, 2007 9:59pm

According to TTN (9:52 pm CST):

(NZ) NZD falls on chatter of RBNZ selling the NZD; The RBNZ does not comment on the rumor - wires
  • #3
  • Jun 10, 2007 10:00pm Jun 10, 2007 10:00pm
Rumor of RBNZ intervention.
  • #4
  • Edited 10:47pm Jun 10, 2007 10:04pm | Edited 10:47pm
Sorry, Bytebodger, but I'd like to thank RBNZ - they just saved me. I was deeply short NZD/USD and long AUD/NZD since Friday morning! :-)
Good luck!
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #5
  • Jun 10, 2007 10:26pm Jun 10, 2007 10:26pm
23:22Hearing RBNZ in the market and trying to spread the word
  • #6
  • Jun 10, 2007 10:50pm Jun 10, 2007 10:50pm
23:49RBNZ confirms intervention in the market
  • #7
  • Jun 10, 2007 10:56pm Jun 10, 2007 10:56pm
Quoting Bytebodger
I'm just curious what just happened to spike AUDNZD? I was short on AUDNZD with the position slowly moving in my favor and no news releases on the horizon, but I was just stopped out when the price spiked 100 pips in a matter of 2 minutes.

I'm not whining about market occurences. It's just another trade. But I'm just curious what happened to move the price so fast?
Hello bytebodger,

the bank of new zealand has sold some of its NZD reserve as they say that the situation of the NZD is described `as exceptional and unjustified in terms of the economic fundamentals.''
Trading is a long and a short story.
  • #8
  • Jun 10, 2007 11:02pm Jun 10, 2007 11:02pm
This thing should sell off in london again, as well over the next few days
  • #9
  • Jun 11, 2007 1:39am Jun 11, 2007 1:39am
Quoting quantas33
23:49RBNZ confirms intervention in the market
Little while ago I came home and saw this thread of FF. And I also saw 2channel(the largest Japanese Internet forum). It seemed to have turned into the veriest hell, for many Japanese traders tend to buy NZD. This attachment is the thread of the time.
Although we didn't buy Oceanian currencies, I wish baby boomers' money would be no damage...(now Japanese baby boomers are about 60 years old, so they have lump-sum payment of retirement benefit and tend to invest in foreign currencies)
Attached Image
Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #10
  • Jun 11, 2007 2:02am Jun 11, 2007 2:02am
As far as trading this thing goes, i think there's gonna be some support where its at right now as its the 38.2 fib line (L:24 May, H:8 June) coupled with a previous high (18 May) but if it breaks through there initially 7450 looks reasonable, with a longer term target being early 70's. I sold @ 0.7531 so i certainly hope my analysis is right

Thoughts?
  • #11
  • Jun 11, 2007 3:07am Jun 11, 2007 3:07am
Its not a rumor. RBNZ just fired a warning shot against foreigners investing in NZD:

Quote
01:57New Zealand finance minister Cullen speaking, says intervention is a reminder that people over-investing in NZD could suffer losses

This specifically points to Japanese carry traders converting JPY to NZD.
  • #12
  • Jun 11, 2007 3:11am Jun 11, 2007 3:11am
Quoting BurgerKing
Its not a rumor. RBNZ just fired a warning shot against foreigners investing in NZD:



This specifically points to Japanese carry traders converting JPY to NZD.
Would be smart if BOJ do the same (i mean buy back Yen )... Their oil invoice might be huge ! and at this level it is very weird to see that there is still deflation of prices...
  • #13
  • Jun 11, 2007 4:25am Jun 11, 2007 4:25am
Any country that prefers to export than import surely would like their money cheapest to be competitive.
  • #14
  • Jun 11, 2007 11:40am Jun 11, 2007 11:40am
Thanks to everyone for the great explanations! I knew that something must have happened. Maybe next time I'll be on the winning side of that move...
  • #15
  • Jun 11, 2007 11:55am Jun 11, 2007 11:55am
maybe this is my cynical side talking but RBNZ just paid off a few longs, who will soon come back and apply those profits to establish even more longs nah i take that back
  • #16
  • Jun 11, 2007 12:20pm Jun 11, 2007 12:20pm
how will the AUD market react when it opens?
  • #17
  • Jun 11, 2007 12:45pm Jun 11, 2007 12:45pm
from what i read this morning, RBNZ sold a huge NZD amount in about 15 minutes; some said it was 1.5 billion, others just 750 millions. the message was clear, though.
i guess it's time to short n-u.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #18
  • Jun 11, 2007 12:53pm Jun 11, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting Scrat
from what i read this morning, RBNZ sold a huge NZD amount in about 15 minutes; some said it was 1.5 billion, others just 750 millions. the message was clear, though.
i guess it's time to short n-u.
I agree with you scrat. Anytime a country intervenes with it's currency being so high, it is a clear message they want it cheaper. They will continue to sink reserves into the market until the price goes down. The only thing to watch for is the fact that the rate is at 8%, which still will entice people to buy this on dips.
  • #19
  • Jun 11, 2007 12:55pm Jun 11, 2007 12:55pm
Would say its too late to sell the NZD? or will the NZD continue to drop over the next few days?
  • #20
  • Jun 11, 2007 12:56pm Jun 11, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting Scrat
from what i read this morning, RBNZ sold a huge NZD amount in about 15 minutes; some said it was 1.5 billion, others just 750 millions. the message was clear, though.
i guess it's time to short n-u.
I have never seen intervention before, so this is all quite new to me. I am not buying into this being the end of the NZD run. As far as major currencies go, it is the highest paying carry out there. Until I see a sustained drop on currencies like NZD, I won't be anxious to short. Honestly, I am anticipating a 93.00 NZD/JPY again before the next couple weeks are up.
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