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NZD - A disaster waiting to happen

  • #81
  • Apr 29, 2007 7:01pm Apr 29, 2007 7:01pm
Dear Folks:

You must have noticed change of sentiment on aud & nzd. They go into .83 & .74 resp. & then are pushed down into .82 & .73 resp. Did'nt take much to change the thinking of the crowd. This goes to show how people get fooled to put trades which are wrong in the first place. By wrong here i mean high risk trades, which can turn any time.

My both trades are still on. In addition, i am long usd/cad now, see my last post. In the next post i will tell you how i trade for living. I have already mentioned my style of trading in the thread by Vantage, but i will outline it once more.

Thnx
  • #82
  • Apr 30, 2007 1:05am Apr 30, 2007 1:05am
stop 0,8346 of course not 0,8246
  • #83
  • Apr 30, 2007 7:19am Apr 30, 2007 7:19am
kzazs,

What are your thoughts as to the risks of holding AUD short through the interest rate statement on Wednesday? Although no hike is expected, has the RBA ever been known to surprise in the past?
  • #84
  • Apr 30, 2007 8:12pm Apr 30, 2007 8:12pm
I will hold my short trade on AUD/USD, through the RBA rate announcement. They are not expected to raise. Keep in mind .25 rate hike was already accounted for as recently as last week, but as the PPI & CPI was lower than expected,the PMI today from Australia was lower then expected as well, therefore, the rates are on hold for the moment. No chance of a surprise there. I only see AUD weakening after the event. How much anybody's guess.

KAZAM
  • #85
  • Apr 30, 2007 8:26pm Apr 30, 2007 8:26pm
If good news from trade partner USA
  • #86
  • May 1, 2007 9:41pm May 1, 2007 9:41pm
0,8242 out one third ( +53 pips)

Stop on BE now ( 0,8395)

Need to break 0,8235 ( small rebound on 0,8236 so far) to go directly to my second target 0,8202 where i will unload 1/3
Last target 0,80
  • #87
  • May 1, 2007 10:20pm May 1, 2007 10:20pm
Closed my short position here at 8228 (+112pips). We're below the daily S2, I'll wait for a bounce and short again.
  • #88
  • May 1, 2007 11:25pm May 1, 2007 11:25pm
It is nice to see people making money on my call. Fundamentals will always be the winner. The reason 90 % people fail in forex is because they blindly follow the crowd & technicals. Look at EUR/USD, a good report from US led to all these people running for cover. I assure you there will be people who would have entered long earlier today & would have lost. They will be blaming their stars & wondering why we lost. Actually it was not that much of a good news but these people had their trades on hollow foundation, As soon one person pulls out the whole building collapses. It hurts me when people lose on bad trades, & when they have no idea why they are entering the trade.

I really enjoy reading currency news on various news channels & forums. The analysts reports are humerous. They dont have a clue what they are writing, one day interest rates are going up the other day they are going down. What a confused lot, as they are reactive. That confusion spills down to regular trader & they make impulsive trades & lose.

I still have a lot of work cut out to educate traders to start thinking fundamentally & be ahead of the crowd to be successful.

KAZAM
  • #89
  • May 9, 2007 7:23am May 9, 2007 7:23am
Quote
[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
[11:53 NZD/USD: Slight Bias Lower After RBNZ Report] May 9, New York. NZD/USD
opens this morning at 0.7359, after finding steady buying interest around
0.7345/50 in overnight trading. With the FOMC expected to maintain the status
quo today, the underlying demand for non-dollar and higher yielding assets
continues. However, there is a slight bias lower for the NZD/USD after the
financial stability report from the RBNZ last night warning of the possibility
of a disorderly correction in the Kiwi, mirroring the warnings yesterday from
the IMF. Also seen as a negative was the BNZ business confidence survey showing
pessimism had risen to 30% from 10% last month. Asian prop desks were among the
sellers of Kiwi last might with model funds also among the sellers. Support
remains at 0.7335/40 with stops below while resistance is eyed at 0.7375/00 and
0.7400 with stops above 0.7410. Price action has been static around 0.7355/60
through the last few hours of London trading with range-trading expected ahead
of the Fed announcement. [email protected]



RBNZ to Carry Traders: "Stop buying NZD!"
  • #90
  • Jun 11, 2007 1:53am Jun 11, 2007 1:53am
NZD just climbed above 0.7640 and dropped below 0.7500 in an instant:

Quote
New Zealand finance minister Cullen speaking, says intervention is a reminder that people over-investing in NZD could suffer losses

You wont find me buying NZD, I have shorted it at 0.7560 last friday for a 200~500 pips target.
  • #91
  • Last Post: Jun 11, 2007 2:16am Jun 11, 2007 2:16am
Quoting BurgerKing
NZD just climbed above 0.7640 and dropped below 0.7500 in an instant:

You wont find me buying NZD, I have shorted it at 0.7560 last friday for a 200~500 pips target.

Wowza. Wonder if this will let AUDNZD resurge...and wonder what AUDUSD will do accordingly.
Trust price. Know yourself.
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