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The Swamp

  • #112,761
  • Oct 26, 2023 4:28am Oct 26, 2023 4:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It's complicated... Debating it now is preaching to the choir... Things change, when their child is shot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOPYoalGL9k {image}
The bolded is deep. Very deep! Good thoughts there.
  • #112,762
  • Edited 4:57am Oct 26, 2023 4:46am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting gatorinla
Curious about the eu not reaching 0526. I think it raises chance of 0610 a little. If it dont get below 0526.
6h trend at 0516.5. Need a 6h close below for bears. The week has already done average range. The 6h is usually a decent trend. This may cause a bounce back to 0587/9x. or even 0610. I try to pit the 8h and 6h against the higher trend when opposite. The 6h and 8h are bullish. The 12h is bearish at 0698. If the 6h dont break. It looks to range between the 6h and 12 h. Between the 2 is 0607.25. Basically 1.0610 area.
Using the 2 algos. Its center 058x..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,763
  • Oct 26, 2023 5:59am Oct 26, 2023 5:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 6h trend at 0516.5. Need a 6h close below for bears. The week has already done average range. The 6h is usually a decent trend. This may cause a bounce back to 0587/9x. or even 0610. I try to pit the 8h and 6h against the higher trend when opposite. The 6h and 8h are bullish. The 12h is bearish at 0698. If the 6h dont break. It looks to range between the 6h and 12 h. Between the 2 is 0607.25. Basically 1.0610 area. Using the 2 algos. Its center 058x..
If bears can break the 6h. Chance to reach 0406 increases. Month average is 1.0279x. All is possible.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,764
  • Oct 26, 2023 7:38am Oct 26, 2023 7:38am
ECB Governing Council Press Conference - 26 October 2023...
Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #112,765
  • Edited 9:01am Oct 26, 2023 7:51am | Edited 9:01am
She’s reading off a teleprompter

Edit: i notice something is off with her, how old is she?
i think she is wearing an earpiece, she seems to forget the questions and answer from a script using various delay tactics.

On the question of recovering economic growth for whole eurozone, she lied. There is no real recovery coming, and rate cuts will nit come either.

lol one of the reporters mocked her for not able to keep up, pointing out he only asked one question.

yeah so overall: 1) economy is screwed and she feel certain regret about it.
2) Commodities are in play and nat gas and oil will rise
3) Banks are sitting on the capital, waiting for the storm to pass.
4) Few are lending or can afford to lend
5) Greek depositors are low(significiance?)
6) there is no disagreement among the ECB
7) Rate cuts are not even discussed, and Lagarde find it laughable to discuss.
8) Bank rates for depositors is not a concern for ECB, and ECB cannot control lending rates
9) Lagarde likes tourism
10) Swedish central bank needs to lend 80 billion(why?)

Lastly there came up some questions about PEPP some kind of pandemic bonds. Seems to be worth trillions.
I dont know what effect those have? ECB bought it and now have to pay the interest? Dont understand the problem.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #112,766
  • Oct 26, 2023 9:25am Oct 26, 2023 9:25am
The 6h closes in 35 min
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,767
  • Oct 26, 2023 10:45am Oct 26, 2023 10:45am
Quoting gatorinla
The 6h closes in 35 min
The next 6h will close on the day close. 0516.5 held this time. 0516.5 not closed below is a support. A lot can happen in the 6hs. It can cross, and recover. Giving a false break signal. It can close below 0516.5, and still bounce. Its range can go all the way to this week's high. And a new 6h downtrend range will develop. So even if the 6h breaks, pa may still reach 058x or 0610.

With time being short. The month range at 0279 is possible. If it does run down, beware it can fall to 0406 or 0279. This is still within a average month's pip range. It can rise above this weeks high, and still be in that range. A lot of time the rebalance is North. With price near 0516.5 beware.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,768
  • Oct 26, 2023 10:53am Oct 26, 2023 10:53am
Quoting Ferna
She’s reading off a teleprompter Edit: i notice something is off with her, how old is she? i think she is wearing an earpiece, she seems to forget the questions and answer from a script using various delay tactics. On the question of recovering economic growth for whole eurozone, she lied. There is no real recovery coming, and rate cuts will nit come either. lol one of the reporters mocked her for not able to keep up, pointing out he only asked one question. yeah so overall: 1) economy is screwed and she feel certain regret about it. 2) Commodities...
Banks may not want to lend, they may want to tighten. Banks dont live on an island. Banks make money lending. Banks need to lend. That's a double edge sword. It's never black and white. In any thing in life moderation is often key. Things tend to balance.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,769
  • Oct 26, 2023 11:30am Oct 26, 2023 11:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 6h trend at 0516.5. Need a 6h close below for bears. The week has already done average range. The 6h is usually a decent trend. This may cause a bounce back to 0587/9x. or even 0610. I try to pit the 8h and 6h against the higher trend when opposite. The 6h and 8h are bullish. The 12h is bearish at 0698. If the 6h dont break. It looks to range between the 6h and 12 h. Between the 2 is 0607.25. Basically 1.0610 area. Using the 2 algos. Its center 058x..
6H verse 12H. 0607 is center.

Bears would need to take 0516, with a 6h close below. If unable, it may run back to 1.0607. The 12h rejected it earlier this week. Bulls did not take 0698+.
Eventually one will win. If not, it will set some range. The month average range has lots of room to drop. The week average range has been achieved already.
PA is on the bear side of 0607. But we dont know if the 6h will hold. It could force it back to the 12 h.. We dont need to care. We can just limit the risk.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,770
  • Oct 26, 2023 12:08pm Oct 26, 2023 12:08pm
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  • #112,771
  • Oct 26, 2023 1:39pm Oct 26, 2023 1:39pm
It would not be a bad thing to take some profit. All or a portion. We have to keep the lights on. This could b.e. the rest. Making the held risk free.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,772
  • Oct 26, 2023 1:54pm Oct 26, 2023 1:54pm
Option expiry

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Theres 1.4Billion at 1.0600 for Friday 10/27/2023
  • #112,773
  • Oct 26, 2023 1:58pm Oct 26, 2023 1:58pm
Quoting mars1
Option expiry {image} Theres 1.4Billion at 1.0600 for Friday 10/27/2023
My thought is that tomorrow is a buy. See this chart from GU. I already bought GU now at 2138. EU has a similar chart and will most likely also fly up tomorrow. If Lagarde and the US data couldn't break 1.0520 then it's not about to be broken soon.
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  • #112,774
  • Oct 26, 2023 1:59pm Oct 26, 2023 1:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
It would not be a bad thing to take some profit. All or a portion. We have to keep the lights on. This could b.e. the rest. Making the held risk free. {image}
Heard from Boulder? Haven't seem her here for a while.
  • #112,775
  • Oct 26, 2023 2:44pm Oct 26, 2023 2:44pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Heard from Boulder? Haven't seem her here for a while.
Stockholm the last I heard. She will come back if, or when ready.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,776
  • Oct 26, 2023 3:55pm Oct 26, 2023 3:55pm
I will keep an eye on the USD/CAD for topping anytime now. Its bullish on every timeframe from 1 minute to 1 year. Very bullish. But its signature is showing some weakness may come.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,777
  • Oct 26, 2023 4:09pm Oct 26, 2023 4:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
I will keep an eye on the USD/CAD for topping anytime now. Its bullish on every timeframe from 1 minute to 1 year. Very bullish. But its signature is showing some weakness may come. {image} {image}
Looking at U/C is usu. a good way to gauge USD sentiment. The psychological 1.4000 level may well be tested to correlate with G/U potentially testing 1.2000
  • #112,778
  • Oct 26, 2023 5:48pm Oct 26, 2023 5:48pm
Quoting bucko23
{quote} Looking at U/C is usu. a good way to gauge USD sentiment. The psychological 1.4000 level may well be tested to correlate with G/U potentially testing 1.2000
It is very bullish. It can go higher. Like I posted, every time frame from 1 year to 1 min was bullish. That was no exageration. It means on all time frames everyone was buying. A market has 2 sides. If everyone is bullish already. Who will be left to continue buying? It may be close to stalling. If all timeframes are bullish. Many bought late. So lets see if the rug is pulled out. Closing positions become sells.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,779
  • Oct 26, 2023 5:57pm Oct 26, 2023 5:57pm
The red line is the week average range. The white shown in the first chart
One of the first chart's candle was 2023 entire year.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,780
  • Oct 26, 2023 6:09pm Oct 26, 2023 6:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It is very bullish. It can go higher. Like I posted, every time frame from 1 year to 1 min was bullish. That was no exageration. It means on all time frames everyone was buying. A market has 2 sides. If everyone is bullish already. Who will be left to continue buying? It may be close to stalling. If all timeframes are bullish. Many bought late. So lets see if the rug is pulled out. Closing positions become sells.
I agree gator ... 100% .. bullish on most USD pairings at this point short term. Rug may be pulled before month end on Tuesday. But if USD/CAD is going to have blow off to 1.40 region others are likely to drop in sync.
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