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Trading Reversals, Fundamentals vs Technicals

  • #41
  • Oct 25, 2023 8:30am Oct 25, 2023 8:30am
We are in on EURUSD

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I dont have much faith in this one since its the only USD pair that is at a support. I dont do correlations, but it helps when GU, AU, NU or DXY lines up. Anyway, we have our pattern and we got triggered. Lets see what happens from now.
  • #42
  • Oct 25, 2023 8:31am Oct 25, 2023 8:31am
Quoting TheCardinal
Pending order, Trend trade: NZDUSD sell {image} Monthly is clearly down. We had a massive push up as seen to the left, but we have break structure to the downside since then (I was long early 21 when the bulls broke structure but eh, cant win them all). {image} We are now breaking structure to the downside (clearly selling pressure). I will wait for a retracement back into that KL with a SL above the last swing point. Yes, it is a 200 pips SL, but you dont choose your stop, the market does. If you want to avoid those 200 pips stop, then swing trading...
I am cancelling this order.

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Price came very close to our entry we are about to make a lower low.
  • #43
  • Oct 25, 2023 8:56am Oct 25, 2023 8:56am
Quoting TheCardinal
We are in and we will try to move to BE as quick as possible. We are betting against the fundamentals (geo-political events being instable, gold is gaining value) and against the bullish trend. {image} Besides the previous high at 2067, this is the only place I see myself being interested to short. Ideally, this area will give us a decent pullback to MAYBE allow us to get involved long in line with the underlying trend and bias
Out at BE. Cant make money on all of them and the move down wasnt enough for us to take profits. On to the next one
  • #44
  • Edited 5:33pm Oct 25, 2023 2:59pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting TheCardinal
We are in on EURUSD {image} I dont have much faith in this one since its the only USD pair that is at a support. I dont do correlations, but it helps when GU, AU, NU or DXY lines up. Anyway, we have our pattern and we got triggered. Lets see what happens from now.
If we get a Bearish candle close near its low, I will probably get out of this trade with a very small loss. This is how you should manage you trades. I had expecting for this pair to go up after that structure break, but 2 very bearish candles and we closing below the only place I see myself going long, it’s not worth the risk anymore. I will wait for another opportunity. Let’s see how it closes
  • #45
  • Edited 5:33pm Oct 25, 2023 5:03pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} If we get a Bearish candle close near its low, I will probably get out of this trade with a very small loss. This is how you should manage you trades. I had expecting for this pair to go up after that structure break, but 2 very bearish candles and we closing below the only place I see myself going long, it’s not worth the risk anymore. I will wait for another opportunity. Let’s see how it closes
moving my SL to 1.0560. So my initial risk was 1% on 90 pips. I’m at 11 pips SL. If it keeps going down, I’m out for the reasons I said in my previous post. This will be a very small loss
  • #46
  • Oct 25, 2023 7:14pm Oct 25, 2023 7:14pm
I will be looking to add to my current Sell position on the SP500. We closed below the Daily 200 MA and below the structure, I will wait for a retest + Confirmation.

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  • #47
  • Oct 26, 2023 1:02am Oct 26, 2023 1:02am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Mallee, you must be an old timer if you read that 20 years old. Have you been around a long time? Any story, tips you would like to share to the younger generation?
No, I don't dwell on the past, I could put you in touch with my butler, I'm sure he'd have some tales to tell
  • #48
  • Oct 26, 2023 1:16am Oct 26, 2023 1:16am
Quoting TheCardinal
I will be looking to add to my current Sell position on the SP500. We closed below the Daily 200 MA and below the structure, I will wait for a retest + Confirmation. {image}
Agree, , very slow atm but further to fall. Closed my Aus200 positions this morning but looking to re enter short again
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My method is similar to yours, patience is the key imo.
  • #49
  • Oct 26, 2023 7:53am Oct 26, 2023 7:53am
Quoting mallee
{quote} No, I don't dwell on the past, I could put you in touch with my butler, I'm sure he'd have some tales to tell
Haha, good one
  • #50
  • Oct 26, 2023 9:41pm Oct 26, 2023 9:41pm
Moving to a new thread : https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14633104

As I've written in the new thread, the reason being is that Im not a fundamental trader. I've created this thread to illustrate a point and I think I did. I will mainly share my charts and experience in the other thread. Thank you all for reading this one and you are most welcome to share you charts in the new thread.

This one is officially over.
  • #51
  • Jan 16, 2024 11:32am Jan 16, 2024 11:32am
I think retail traders should base their decision on momentum rather than looking at oversold and overbought areas. Based on my experience, price move towards strong momentum or it easily creates new momentum
Tumelo.Matane
The Dynamic Markets Corner All Time Return: -77.5%
  • #52
  • Last Post: Feb 2, 2025 9:38pm Feb 2, 2025 9:38pm
Quoting tumelo0195
I think retail traders should base their decision on momentum rather than looking at oversold and overbought areas. Based on my experience, price move towards strong momentum or it easily creates new momentum
I think retail traders should find something that makes them money regardless of what it is, momentum, indicators, price action, long term charts, short term charts. People really like to:

1. Overcomplicate things
2. Put everything into different box/groups (the price action group vs the indicator group vs the algo group, swing trader vs scalper, etc).

At the end of the day, find an edge, execute it, risk manage, repeat. If you ask me what I think, I think price moves in the line of least resistance. Like I've shown in this thread, retail traders keep selling when price go up because its "too high", because it reached a resistance, or a "supply zone", or better yet, an "oRdEr BlOcK". But guess what? Price will keep bursting through your "supply zone" like its nothing (or sometime with a decent pullback). Retail traders are happy when they finally caught a selling point in an uptrend and will be proud of getting that +100 pips. What they missed, is that up move of +2000 pips. But no. Price is "too high" lets short again for +30-50 pips and hope it turns. Retail will keep selling at the high and keep buying at the bottom and I have already proven my point with objective stats/facts. Price will keep trending longer than you expect. Stop trying to catch the top or the bottom and ride the wave.
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