Harmonic Wave Journal

Roger captain.

just a faithful reader/subscriber.

I got about the same next downside targets for cable at 1.9555 and 1.9500. I never think beyond that for now. This weekend will be a good time for me to review longer term wave counts.
And no, those 1.94 and below targets are not to be laughed at, it's NEVER far-fetched, like our captain bravado said.

Opportunity #G22/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.9648
Stop (initial): 1.9598

End of mini wave 5, subwave 4 up (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.9666 (guarantees -18).
Update 2: There it goes (-18 x3). Re-entry at 1.9648, initial stop at 1.9598.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 1.9666 (+18). S/L tightened to 1.9633 (guarantees -15). Maybe it'll move lower again.
Update 4: Closed everything at 1.9675 (+27 x2).

Total gain: +18

Opportunity #E17/07 (re-entry)
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3323
Stop (initial): 1.3283

Mini mini wave 4 up (?).

Update 1: LOL another blow up for -120. Re-entry tho, because of the system, at 1.3323, initial stop at 1.3283.
Update 2: Took 1st profit at 1.3353 (+30). S/L tightened to 1.3330 (guarantees +7).
Update 3: Closed everything at 1.3362 (+39 x2).

Total gain: -12

Time for a re-group and re-assess everything this weekend.

hi Tra-X, chart will be nice to explain it better, don't think i complaint here just a suggestion for lazzy guys like me.

thanks.

Hey Traex,
As a trader you still seem unstoppable, even with some of your loses.
I would still say you ara doing a heck of a good job. Congrats

In an earlier post you said it looks like a long 5th wave coming.
I was wondering what lead you to that conclusion and if you could explain.I am still a newbie on wave counts and trying to broaden my veiws.

THANKS

AZ

Hi 400396, I'll update the charts later and do weekly recap as well.

Thanks AZ-Heat, quite an interesting week right.

Yeah, a long 5th wave is pretty common for cable in a strong rally. It normally squeezes the momentum and wave length to almost same to the 3rd wave. I don't do momentum now, but you can check with m30 Momentum (MOM, it's in the oscillators group of indicators in MT4) period 21 this time. The 5th wave momentum low almost reached the 3rd momentum bottom. Just my opinion here, might not be correct.

Weekly review:

Total trades closed = 5, Winners = 3, Losers = 2
Total gain in winners = 677, total loss in losers = 84
Net gain this week = +593

No short term trade carried thru this weekend.

Medium long term trades:
EUR/USD Short from 1.3595 at around +220, GBP/USD Short from 2.0100 at around +400.

Weekly recap and charts will be updated later. Regrouping time!
Enjoy your weekend everyone.

Thank you, Traex, for this great journal. Looking forward to see your regroup analysis.

aha

BTW, it looks to me that cable is on the way down to finish a 5-wave sub-wave C of a wave A starting from mid April, it may have finished the wave 1 of the subwave and the wave 2 is heading back to 50/38.2 fibo level at 9800-9750 area. Do you guys agree?

I will post chart after Traex finish his analysis (if I still think so after seen his, ) ...

A strong rally down by cable, and it's prolly in wave (red) 4 retracement now, final wave 5 down will follow after, targetting around 1.9555 (61.8 retracement of 1.9183 - 2.0131) or 1.9500. It'll mark the end of big wave C down also. In the case wave 4 retracement extends till 1.9800 and above, it's likely that aha's wave count in above post is the correct one instead (only wave 1 or A of the big wave C has finished, prolly in an ending diagonal triangle).

Well, well, well. This pair keeps going down slowly so a re-count is needed in longer term timeframe. The retracement from 1.3680 has apparently not finished yet, and it appears to be a triple zig-zag (W-X-Y-XX-Z) formation now with last subwave (orange) Z going. One final mini wave (magenta) 5 downwards, and is that it? A break below 1.3254 will make a blow to the bulls and the wave count.

Good luck to everyone next week.

Is it possible to be like this on higher time frame?

This purple 5 wave pattern only forms the wave 1 of the red wave 3. But that means the retracement will be much deeper than where we are right now.... until 8950 or 8575, seems to be unbelieveable.

In this one the purple wave 3 is just finished with a green 5-wave pattern. We are on purple wave 4, since the wave purple wave 2 is a simple one, purple wave 4 may be a complex one and last for long time.

I don't like this solution because at lower time frame, I can't find a good 5 wave pattern for green wave 1 and 3.

What's your counting on this time frame?

Comparing it with the first solution I posted, it seems that both predicts a retracement futher than what we have right now. The first solution will retrace deeper, while this solution the retracement has to be above the purple wave 1.

Zoom in to the current down wave... it seems that we have a complex wave A, than a simple wave B, now we are on the way of a 5-wave wave C

Just another perspective....

zoom further in... then we have Traex's counting for the wave C.

The question is, what happens after wave C? That's why I go to larger time frame at post #473 and #474 to get a bigger picture. I realize that between the red and purple, there may be another layer of structure, let's say yellow. the purple waves only forms a sub wave of the yellow wave, and we are in the yellow wave 2.... hope I am making sense here,


Sorry to put so many junks on your thread, Traex. Any comment will be appreciated.

Thanks, you too

And congratulations on ANOTHER week incredibly well done!

Boy, am I glad to read you guys thinking along the same lines. More down, but possibly some retrace first. Just what I posted to my journal a small bit ago

Here's an excerpt:

"GBPUSD: Monthly IB breaking to downside, Weekly BEOB, daily BEB. Starting to believe Igrok might be right.
Looking at monthly and merging the two bars one could say the left leg ends at around 1.9180 and could very well become a viable target below 1.95xx / 1.9315.
Looking to sell rallies / setups.
Slightly worried about how much damage the retrace will do first, but we shall see. Maybe we'll get a proper surge, a smash back down -> PB, or maybe we'll just hack it to pieces, who knows. "

Let's see how we do
Btw, a greedy FE 100 projection would end at 1.9510ish (1.9335ish lower FE 138.2, 1.9225 for FE 161.8 superhog hehehe) with us inside of the C down already, possibly now finishing the C.3 subwave down of it as posted...

Best of luck to you guys, too!

Hi Traex
Just wanted to say yet again how impressed I am with your Elliott Wave analysis. Thanks to you and your contributors on this thread. Thinking back over your calls over the last month or so I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it!!
Many thanks.

Thanks again SeekingLight and Vantage for the encouragement words.

Anyway, it seems that cable is stuck again around the 'number of the beast' 9666. Can sit down and relax for awhile now while waiting for it to move again.

Aha, my medium-long term wave count is abit different than yours. I'm abit lazy to label and post the chart here, so I'll just mention my waves in numbers. I still assume that the huge 1.7049 to 2.0131 (might not have finished yet) wave is a wave 5 in a 5-wave sequence from 1.3680 low some years ago.
From there the waves are divided into another 5, with an extension in the 5th wave:
Wave 1: 1.7049 - 1.7813
Wave 2: 1.7813 - 1.7231
Wave 3: 1.7231 - 1.9027
Wave 4: 1.9027 - 1.8091
Wave 5.1: 1.8091 - 1.9143
Wave 5.2: 1.9143 - 1.8517
Wave 5.3: 1.8517 - 1.9915
Wave 5.4: 1.9915 - 1.9183
Wave 5.5: 1.9183 - 2.0131 (?)

If this wave has finished at 2.0131, we might see 50% retracement of 1.7049 - 2.0131 at 1.8590 before end of 2007 (it also coincides with the long-term support trendline that Igrok mentioned in this post somewhere).
That's my opinion about cable's medium-long term count.

Let me label it and post it here,

Here we go...