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  • #112,601
  • Oct 18, 2023 10:18am Oct 18, 2023 10:18am
Absolutely beautiful structure for shorts. Only question is if it will wait for tomorrow or pull it off after london close?
My timing is not the best.
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  • #112,602
  • Oct 18, 2023 10:26am Oct 18, 2023 10:26am
495 remains intact... we have 90 pips of range... there are still two days left until the week ends. Maybe the one that breaks first will keep the rest of the week (495 or 594)

at this point longs has better RR..but?
  • #112,603
  • Oct 18, 2023 10:29am Oct 18, 2023 10:29am
Quoting Ferna
Absolutely beautiful structure for shorts. Only question is if it will wait for tomorrow or pull it off after london close? My timing is not the best.
But the short was clear to me all the while. All I saw with bulls was bluster. Monthly pivot at 0648 tried twice and dumped like hot iron. Tests towards 0600 firmly and roundly rejected. What else but an almost certain downside? Except we get a doji month, I expect the monthly to pursue it's range to the downside.
  • #112,604
  • Edited 11:05am Oct 18, 2023 10:52am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} But the short was clear to me all the while. All I saw with bulls was bluster. Monthly pivot at 0648 tried twice and dumped like hot iron. Tests towards 0600 firmly and roundly rejected. What else but an almost certain downside? Except we get a doji month, I expect the monthly to pursue it's range to the downside.
tbh i been confused.. i make bad timing when i have low risk. It feels a bit like i’m saying it in a general way, of course market is gona go up sometime, likewise it will go down. Anyone can get it right eventually.

yeah and the doji thing u mentioned.. that’s what happened in October repeatedly throughout the years inc last year.
Haven’t got to learn pivot points yet, i just know if too many knows it, it can be a self-fulfillimg prophecy or a trap.
7 more pips to the downside might be the trigger, Some big coming in too.
Jpy might come out strong
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  • #112,605
  • Oct 18, 2023 11:40am Oct 18, 2023 11:40am
in long for a scalp
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  • #112,606
  • Oct 18, 2023 12:20pm Oct 18, 2023 12:20pm
Quoting Ferna
in long for a scalp
Closed +22(0528 -> 0550)
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  • #112,607
  • Oct 18, 2023 2:04pm Oct 18, 2023 2:04pm
Quoting Ferna
Absolutely beautiful structure for shorts. Only question is if it will wait for tomorrow or pull it off after london close? My timing is not the best.
The structure was better for a short in July. PA looked bullish then. PA looks bearish now, after a 800 pip drop. It should look bearish here. It will look bearish at 0861/35 to me too. The elephant in the room being, up now or down.

A 1h close below 0524 takes away my 1h bull. some support possible 0524 0518x 0506/07. 0495 needs a touch below 0595
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,608
  • Edited 4:20pm Oct 18, 2023 2:48pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The structure was better for a short in July. PA looked bullish then. PA looks bearish now, after a 800 pip drop. It should look bearish here. It will look bearish at 0861/35 to me too. The elephant in the room being, up now or down. A 1h close below 0524 takes away my 1h bull. some support possible 0524 0518x 0506/07. 0495 needs a touch below 0595
I forgot about 0523.2 in post. The sisters 0569.6 0607. I left a pending s scalp at 0606.. But i will cancel after today closes. After today closes 0607 10 R can drop it some. With about 13 days left. 1.0765 pull may yield a 0700 test. Even 0861 can pull if 0406 can't do it. To the question up or down. i dont know. With the current low at 0448. The attraction to 0765 may have a fib at 0523.2. So I just look for supports to see if any hold. In the view the low pattern matched the low in 2022. Drawing a fib from the low to the attractors is see looks something like this. Using 0765 in this one.
No guarantees it makes it. Its just pa stopped there for some reason.
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  • #112,609
  • Oct 18, 2023 2:56pm Oct 18, 2023 2:56pm
Bears don't disappoint.
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  • #112,610
  • Oct 18, 2023 3:58pm Oct 18, 2023 3:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The structure was better for a short in July. PA looked bullish then. PA looks bearish now, after a 800 pip drop. It should look bearish here. It will look bearish at 0861/35 to me too. The elephant in the room being, up now or down. A 1h close below 0524 takes away my 1h bull. some support possible 0524 0518x 0506/07. 0495 needs a touch below 0595
I think one has to take a fundamental/technical approach to this.
What strikes me when taking a wider look at the charts is that ADR are decreasing on all western currencies. Also the liquidity is thinning out.
Wonder what the ADR for euro is these days? 50?
I can see more volatility and liquidity in emerging nations currency like Mexico, poland etc.. The exception might be CHF who might still have more liquidity.
Also good on certain commodities.

Let's assume this is true that we got a liquidity problem in a highly liquid asset(as marketed) like the euro. The relative liquidity compared to the dollar and safe haven assets, must be less. I read an article that very few countries want to invest in Europe due to uncertainty here, and that the debts are growing at a unprecedented pace. From 50 billion euro in 2020 to about a trillion in late 2022.

I'd say with the macroeconomics and politics of EU we just got no money coming in at this moment.
What goes around in the news and reports are all neutral data. Hold steady etc. Miti has a point about the doji month.

Maybe scalper approach is the best approach for euro. Even though it looks like it might go lower.
We have ECB rate decision next week that can drive the markets, i don't think anything this week except oil can drive the markets.
GU looks a bit more volatile.
How much ADR was there in the past?
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  • #112,611
  • Oct 18, 2023 4:19pm Oct 18, 2023 4:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I forgot about 0523.2 in post. The sisters 0569.6 0607. I left a pending s scalp at 0606.. But i will cancel after today closes. After today closes 0907 10 R can drop it some. With about 13 days left. 1.0765 pull may yield a 0700 test. Even 0861 can pull if 0406 can't do it. To the question up or down. i dont know. With the current low at 0448. The attraction to 0765 may have a fib at 0523.2. So I just look for supports to see if any hold. In the view the low pattern matched the low in 2022. Drawing a fib from the low...
typo Fix is 0607
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,612
  • Oct 18, 2023 4:27pm Oct 18, 2023 4:27pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I think one has to take a fundamental/technical approach to this. What strikes me when taking a wider look at the charts is that ADR are decreasing on all western currencies. Also the liquidity is thinning out. Wonder what the ADR for euro is these days? 50? I can see more volatility and liquidity in emerging nations currency like Mexico, poland etc.. The exception might be CHF who might still have more liquidity. Also good on certain commodities. Let's assume this is true that we got a liquidity problem in a highly liquid asset(as marketed)...
Higher rates are drying liquid for everyone. Its worse for emerging currencies who find their payments rising. In the U.S business borrowing cost are higher. When a business can't borrow, it may close the doors. In a commercial real-estate market already under pressure. The faces of business owners may change.

Yeah scalping seems better lately.

If you haven't figured this out yet. Many news articles will give reasons "after a move." The information will be well known before the move. The news will curve fit the move after the fact. "After a move people" you never heard from before a move. Will post "after the move charts" that they made billions with. That will continue until time ends.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,613
  • Oct 18, 2023 4:39pm Oct 18, 2023 4:39pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I think one has to take a fundamental/technical approach to this. What strikes me when taking a wider look at the charts is that ADR are decreasing on all western currencies. Also the liquidity is thinning out. Wonder what the ADR for euro is these days? 50? I can see more volatility and liquidity in emerging nations currency like Mexico, poland etc.. The exception might be CHF who might still have more liquidity. Also good on certain commodities. Let's assume this is true that we got a liquidity problem in a highly liquid asset(as marketed)...
The clouds are there. This before the articles are posted. I have been through this cycle several times.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,614
  • Oct 18, 2023 5:59pm Oct 18, 2023 5:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The clouds are there. This before the articles are posted. I have been through this cycle several times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq_6RKHJIIA
Very good and educational video
i had my suspcisions and tried to learn this from other ppl in business but they are all optimist, so it’s good to get a more realistic perspective.
I wonder if this affects policy changes in fintech, or fintech banks and politicians made it happen in the first place.

How do one check if a smaller bank has a large commercial real estate exposure?
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  • #112,615
  • Oct 18, 2023 6:18pm Oct 18, 2023 6:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Higher rates are drying liquid for everyone. Its worse for emerging currencies who find their payments rising. In the U.S business borrowing cost are higher. When a business can't borrow, it may close the doors. In a commercial real-estate market already under pressure. The faces of business owners may change. Yeah scalping seems better lately. If you haven't figured this out yet. Many news articles will give reasons "after a move." The information will be well known before the move. The news will curve fit the move after the fact. "After...
Yeah i suspected it, whenever i focus really hard on charts for a day i know what they will write on the news sites after i’m done with the trade xD. Almost like the charts are writing history.
But sometimes the market are waiting on news, and it cannot go elsewhere until the news release. Lately the movements been more half hearted to anynews/data release so one can safely trade them without any big risk involved.

Tbh i only focus on the mechanics / change of rules news. The rest are good to keep in sync with a storyline though.
I think the emerging currency nations got a lower median age and more financial freedom/opportunity, they are basically at our 80s and 90s in some aspects. Or do they have serious debts too?
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  • #112,616
  • Oct 18, 2023 6:24pm Oct 18, 2023 6:24pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Yeah i suspected it, whenever i focus really hard on charts for a day i know what they will write on the news sites after i’m done with the trade xD. Almost like the charts are writing history. But sometimes the market are waiting on news, and it cannot go elsewhere until the news release. Lately the movements been more half hearted to anynews/data release so one can safely trade them without any big risk involved. Tbh i only focus on the mechanics / change of rules news. The rest are good to keep in sync with a storyline though. I think...
If the usd dont strengthen in these current war drum events. I dont know.
There is a algo at 0765. It may need near filling this month.
If a business spends more on debt. They are less likely to spend on discretionary stuff. Those empty building inventories grow on a bank's balance sheet. The bank tightens its loaning. (less liquidity to borrow) At some point the bank will want to unload those buildings. A boarded up empty building is begging for vandals. Fire sales bring down the value of other buildings. The bank may lose even more on the balance sheet. The guy who is up to date on his loan. May walk away to buy a better firesale building at a cheaper price.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,617
  • Oct 18, 2023 8:34pm Oct 18, 2023 8:34pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Yeah i suspected it, whenever i focus really hard on charts for a day i know what they will write on the news sites after i’m done with the trade xD. Almost like the charts are writing history. But sometimes the market are waiting on news, and it cannot go elsewhere until the news release. Lately the movements been more half hearted to anynews/data release so one can safely trade them without any big risk involved. Tbh i only focus on the mechanics / change of rules news. The rest are good to keep in sync with a storyline...
it really depends yesterday there was a 1 hour wait where I was dead in the water then 15M comes out and completely goes where it needs to go while EU lagged on the news so.. You can kind of get a picture before anything happens then the replay of the same sequence but it lags another 1 hour on EU so for 2 hours you know whats going on but that bait jingle will play out over and over.. You just have to look at the entirety of the attack surface to see what flaws are piercing the vail of BS.. I am no way saying I have any answer I just 1 person but dont discount your abilities to see the BS moves.
  • #112,618
  • Oct 19, 2023 2:58am Oct 19, 2023 2:58am
So far 0523 has held. A 1h close above 0559 dynamically bullish toward 0569. With a 12h close coming + 0569 could be bullish. Pa atm is below 0569. Its testing 0537. Below 0537 is looking for 0523.. PA can pop soon. The 12h closes in 1h.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,619
  • Edited 3:24am Oct 19, 2023 3:10am | Edited 3:24am
Quoting gatorinla
So far 0523 has held. A 1h close above 0559 dynamically bullish toward 0569. With a 12h close coming + 0569 could be bullish. Pa atm is below 0569. Its testing 0537. Below 0537 is looking for 0523.. PA can pop soon. The 12h closes in 1h.
Bears still would need to take 0523 and 0495. Closing 0569 has a 12h touch at 0602, with 0607/10 still. Plus all the R at 064x5x. But just being up there is not bearish looking. It could make 0569 74 supportive. If so 0607/10 can support when pa is above.
ATM pa is below 0569 74. The side needed to break 0523.
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  • #112,620
  • Oct 19, 2023 3:36am Oct 19, 2023 3:36am
Dialed in some. Bears are expecting a lower break.
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