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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,801
  • Jun 8, 2007 8:57am Jun 8, 2007 8:57am
Quoting syerram2
It looks like you have alot of experience with this pair. How should you be trading this pair? Is it more of a day trading pair, where you make a few pips and exit out or has it been more of a long term pair? I was wondering because every time it drops or I lose alot of money I get frustrated as to whether I should close my position to avoid further loses or just hold it out.

I think you have to put this in perspective - it is like no other currency. The market is the issue here, there is no stability at present and I can normally make a steady $2000 per day, and am currently at a loss of $124 - which is not my style. I have traded this succesfully for 6 months now - so take care at the moment and wait until things settle down.
  • #5,802
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:05am Jun 8, 2007 9:05am
I am hearing that a number fo people have got absolutely hammered yesterday and today, even some of the main guys have taken a severe beating.

We seem to be shifting again to a short position - any thoughts??????
  • #5,803
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:06am Jun 8, 2007 9:06am
Quoting syerram2
It looks like you have alot of experience with this pair. How should you be trading this pair? Is it more of a day trading pair, where you make a few pips and exit out or has it been more of a long term pair? I was wondering because every time it drops or I lose alot of money I get frustrated as to whether I should close my position to avoid further loses or just hold it out.
you can day trade this pair. just don't buy too much.

main trend for this pair is up. and it will be for quite awhile.

as a experiment:

1) buy a lot worth .01 usd (penny) at current level. (less if your broker allows you to and you don't have good initial capital. $50,000 or less)
2) if you are in the negative territory, wait(sometimes weeks).
3) wait until you are in the positive territory.
4) exit on your discretion.
5)try not to sell this pair.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,804
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:13am Jun 8, 2007 9:13am
EMA50 of M30 made a good resistance, if EMA50 of M15 supports there should not be another sell off, otherwise be ready for another 150 pips sell off
  • #5,805
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:16am Jun 8, 2007 9:16am
Quoting melpheos
EMA50 of M30 made a good resistance, if EMA50 of M15 supports there should not be another sell off, otherwise be ready for another 150 pips sell off

I agree with you 100% on that assessment !
  • #5,806
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:21am Jun 8, 2007 9:21am
If there is a full moon when I look out my window, I am going short.
  • #5,807
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:24am Jun 8, 2007 9:24am
I'm back in UJ only... Small long here + buy limit 121.50...

I don't expect too much from the upside for today... I'm just resuming my long term trade in this pair....

Out of GJ, mainly because right now I see GU's upside severely hurt. A re-test of USD-index back to 82.50 (previous support turned to resistance, breached today) and I'll think about it... possibly on next week...

I agree that 240 is likely key level for the short term, but I'm not going to bet on it on a Friday....
  • #5,808
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:24am Jun 8, 2007 9:24am
Lol dimmi....i guess thats how the situation is right now...:-)
  • #5,809
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:26am Jun 8, 2007 9:26am
Quoting cesarnc
I'm back in UJ only... Small long here + buy limit 121.50...

I don't expect too much from the upside for today... I'm just resuming my long term trade in this pair....

Out of GJ, mainly because right now I see GU's upside severely hurt. A re-test of USD-index back to 82.50 (previous support turned to resistance, breached today) and I'll think about it... possibly on next week...

I agree that 240 is likely key level for the short term, but I'm not going to bet on it on a Friday....
You are right. Making bet on friday is dangerous but it's fun
EMA50 M15 still supporting, EMA50 M30 still resisting... Which one will give up the first ?
  • #5,810
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:30am Jun 8, 2007 9:30am
Quoting melpheos
You are right. Making bet on friday is dangerous but it's fun
EMA50 M15 still supporting, EMA50 M30 still resisting... Which one will give up the first ?
If I have to bet, I bet the stock market, now sound & safe in the green area... However, it's also Friday in NYC, so...
  • #5,811
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:34am Jun 8, 2007 9:34am
Quoting cesarnc
If I have to bet, I bet the stock market, now sound & safe in the green area... However, it's also Friday in NYC, so...
Trade balance is better than expected but it's still a big red figure $58 billion is HUUUUUUUGE...

It's very weird to see how a bad figure can be reassuring :-/ Come on, $ is fleeing out of the US !!!
  • #5,812
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:35am Jun 8, 2007 9:35am
Im still Long on UJ. Even if it dont close today.

Sentiment is still Long-term versus Yen.

I agree with Ceaser, the GU upside is seriously questionable. Im staying out.

I did however scalped on the GJ and took in a nice profit up within hour time span.

So now I'm working at my desk, and checking for any movement and signals to get back in conservatively. Today is Friday.
  • #5,813
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:41am Jun 8, 2007 9:41am
Quoting newjersey24
Im still Long on UJ. Even if it dont close today.

Sentiment is still Long-term versus Yen.

I agree with Ceaser, the GU upside is seriously questionable. Im staying out.

I did however scalped on the GJ and took in a nice profit up within hour time span.

So now I'm working at my desk, and checking for any movement and signals to get back in conservatively. Today is Friday.
well, during the whole carnage, UJ barely sustained sub-121 levels... This surge of now + breach of 100 hour EMA open 122 for the short term...
  • #5,814
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:54am Jun 8, 2007 9:54am
of the crosses, usdjpy is the strongest and the safest for longs now...
  • #5,815
  • Jun 8, 2007 9:59am Jun 8, 2007 9:59am
Yea,

When I noticed very strong support levels at 121.00.

My mindset was to load up on buys and start scraping off some sells I had at 120.78 levels for sometime now. Although I took some immediate losses on the sells and swaps.

We broke even soon afterwards on the buys.

Now we on positive side with a lot more equity and marin!

I will neva place sells again. Its just not worth it for us.

Unless a carry unwind is confirmed! Of course!!
  • #5,816
  • Jun 8, 2007 10:01am Jun 8, 2007 10:01am
EMA50 M5 and EMA50 M15 still supporting, EMA50 M30 still resisting... Damn, the week end is going to be long (this does not mean i go long on GY :-p )

edit : as i was typing, EMA50 M5 and EMA50 M15 broken, i reopen my hedge ! Depending on the end of the day i will either close it to profit from swap or let it run if the situation seems very very bad. Now we are probably going to do one more unwind...
  • #5,817
  • Jun 8, 2007 10:05am Jun 8, 2007 10:05am
Dow Jones making a strong reversal now.... GJ fast to 239.00....
  • #5,818
  • Jun 8, 2007 10:14am Jun 8, 2007 10:14am
Not so fast my friends 238.88 as we speak. I smell 238.50
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,819
  • Jun 8, 2007 10:16am Jun 8, 2007 10:16am
Quoting DutchTrader
Not so fast my friends 238.88 as we speak. I smell 238.50
I smell BBQ in NYC.... Dow Jones red after +50 in the morning....

12am+ EST is been when selloff increases.... One the cards today again
  • #5,820
  • Jun 8, 2007 10:19am Jun 8, 2007 10:19am
38.2 fib @ 238.97 giving it some trouble
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