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Trend Following Experiment - EURUSD

  • #61
  • Jun 4, 2007 12:39pm Jun 4, 2007 12:39pm
Hi Jacko,

I have recently stumbled upon your thread on this forum. Thanks a lot for your help. I have realized on my own that to trade only according to trend is the only way to see consistent profits. But after reading your posts I have refined my method. I started using trailing stop and try to trade longer term, also I tried anti-hedging technique which works brilliantly. Before knowing it, I would usually allow a huge drawdown which hurt my mindset and emotions very badly. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif

The only thing that I have to incorporate yet is trading longer term. I have read somewhere in your posts that you trade only two times a week. Given that you do not follow the market all the time, how do you manage to do correct enries and exits? Do you use TPs?
Thanks in advance for your help.
  • #62
  • Jun 4, 2007 10:54pm Jun 4, 2007 10:54pm
I think the longtrend might have resumed today. but I'm not sure where I should enter the market. right now? or wait for more confirmations? any suggestions?
  • #63
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:37am Jun 6, 2007 3:37am
buylimit @ 1.3500; SL @ 1.3450; 5 micro lots;
  • #64
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:37am Jun 8, 2007 5:37am
bought @ 1.3500; SL was hit @ 1.3461; ($19)

price has dropped below 1.3411, anti-hedging order is in place @ 1.3461.
  • #65
  • Jun 8, 2007 6:55am Jun 8, 2007 6:55am
I wonder what kind of stop and trailing stop sizes Jacko prefers? I am the kind of guy who likes big stops so I would have a 100 pip trailing stop on EUR/USD, I am going to try this anti-hedging method as it seems to be a good idea if you use big stops.
  • #66
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:04am Jun 8, 2007 7:04am
I agree with your thoughts as to stops given the average daily fluctuation of the eur/usd.....100 would keep you in play longer.....
as to jacko's stops......he said he uses 50 sl.....read his posts.......it is all there.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #67
  • Jun 12, 2007 2:12am Jun 12, 2007 2:12am
A question:
the rule says to place a trailing stop of 50 pips, if it is hit wait for the price fall another 50 pip and place a buy stop 50 pips ago.
Well, but what if after the stop has been hit the price falls 15 pips more or 20 and then resumes his old direction with force?
  • #68
  • Edited 5:28am Jun 18, 2007 5:04am | Edited 5:28am
Quoting jacko
Hi winterwhite,

I will answer the above questions in reverse order.

1. The significance of the "4 hrly trendline being pierced" is that it is the first significant trend trading trend line to indicate that a correction is taking place that MAY result in a change in the medium / long term trend. It is to alert trend traders to the possibility that the trend may have changed.

2. Having the point 1 above in mind, I am still sceptical that this is anything other than a short term shallow correction to the long term bull trend for the Euro. (NOTE I could be wwwwrong !!).
My personal thought at this point of time is that maybe 1.3300- 1.3350 will see the bottom of this shallow corection and that it may occur next 7 - 10 days. (NOTE I could be wwwwrong !!).

However, having said that this market looks like retracing, I am NOT recommending that anyone "short" this market.

It is looking a relatively shallow correction and when the bull market is seen to be resuming, it is usual to make 100-150 pips at a time.

.
Hey Dudes,
Just got a mssage from a trader here askin how I am going and why I wasnt posting here anymore so I thought I would share the answer with everyone here.
I am trading very well. Jacko helps me and we Skype talk evry second or third day.
He has decided that he doesnt wont to make a big deal out of his trading and so I am keeeping off the forums becos he is. He is a real inspiration to me and I am now becoming a much better trader which is cool becos I wont to be a trader for life. I have made BIG money using his advice already, he even tells me what he would do if he was as aggressive as me so I have real good guidelines as to what I should be doing. He is less aggressive than me but I am slowing my trading down now to more fit with his laid back style. I just not as rich as him yet so I am prepared to be more aggressive in the short term in my trades using his advice.
Newbietrader101

I decided to trust Jackos predictions of it falling to 1.3300. I sold at 1.3650 becos Jacko had said to me that he thought the euro was rolling over (his words) and that he was guessing that it wouild fall to around 1.3300. I trusted his predictions cos he said about 18months ago that the euro would go to 1.3666 within a year and he was only two points short exactly one year later. Thats either freakish trading or a fckin great guess, either way, when he said to me that it was looking like rolling over and would prolly go to 1.3300, that was good enough for me. I trade his standard system but I also have a more aggressive way of trading by backing his predictions. I am now out of my shorts at 1.3300 and now using his standard system of buying long with the major trend. I am doing really weell and I am really greateful to Jacko for all his help.

PS the trade prediction of bottoming at around 1.3300 was posted on 5/26/07 and he had talked to me about it rolling over about a month before. Thats either freakish trading or a fckin great guess
  • #69
  • Jun 18, 2007 11:16am Jun 18, 2007 11:16am
i can see this falling a bit further since its still trending down to the weekly uptrend line currently at 132. still hats off to jacko for making a good call on the downtrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #70
  • Jun 27, 2007 1:50am Jun 27, 2007 1:50am
Quoting iPlayGames
wow, look at this, a breakout is on the verge, and I suspect it's downward. but I'm not trading this timeframe anymore. though I should, because everytime I'm not trading, the market goes the way I predicted. but as soon as I enter a trade, it goes the other way...

Simple Question that needs GOOD answers from Expert Trader.

Why is it a Common Knowledge that whenever Traders place a position the
Market Goes the Other Way ???

Is it true that the Price PROVIUDER of any certain Broker is Manupulating
the Prices. Example on a Buy position: SAY, The Price Provider is doing some
kind of Strategy To DELAY the Input of Bullish Prices. And also to ADVANCE the Bearish Prices using their previous delayed prices reservation.
This is why to hunt the stops.

Sorry for the english, it's not my native.

Renefx
Just trying to share
  • #71
  • Jun 28, 2007 6:51pm Jun 28, 2007 6:51pm
Quote
Why is it a Common Knowledge that whenever Traders place a position the
Market Goes the Other Way ???

There's no bull side or bear side. Just the right side.
  • #72
  • Jun 30, 2007 11:01am Jun 30, 2007 11:01am
Take a look here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=392
  • #73
  • Edited 7:19am Jul 1, 2007 7:12am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting newbietrader101
Hey Dudes,
Just got a mssage from a trader here askin how I am going and why I wasnt posting here anymore so I thought I would share the answer with everyone here.
I am trading very well. Jacko helps me and we Skype talk evry second or third day.
He has decided that he doesnt wont to make a big deal out of his trading and so I am keeeping off the forums becos he is. He is a real inspiration to me and I am now becoming a much better trader which is cool becos I wont to be a trader for life. I have made BIG money using his advice already, he even tells me what he would do if he was as aggressive as me so I have real good guidelines as to what I should be doing. He is less aggressive than me but I am slowing my trading down now to more fit with his laid back style. I just not as rich as him yet so I am prepared to be more aggressive in the short term in my trades using his advice.
Newbietrader101

I decided to trust Jackos predictions of it falling to 1.3300. I sold at 1.3650 becos Jacko had said to me that he thought the euro was rolling over (his words) and that he was guessing that it wouild fall to around 1.3300. I trusted his predictions cos he said about 18months ago that the euro would go to 1.3666 within a year and he was only two points short exactly one year later. Thats either freakish trading or a fckin great guess, either way, when he said to me that it was looking like rolling over and would prolly go to 1.3300, that was good enough for me. I trade his standard system but I also have a more aggressive way of trading by backing his predictions. I am now out of my shorts at 1.3300 and now using his standard system of buying long with the major trend. I am doing really weell and I am really greateful to Jacko for all his help.

PS the trade prediction of bottoming at around 1.3300 was posted on 5/26/07 and he had talked to me about it rolling over about a month before. Thats either freakish trading or a fckin great guess
He is a freak trader. This was posted here on 06-18-07, and I have been buying long euros only. He is a freak trader. he just knows the big picture. I sold at 1.3650 becos Jacko had said to me that he thought the euro was rolling over (his words) and that he was guessing that it wouild fall to around 1.3300. At 1.3300 I got out and reversed back into long positiions. have been long only since.
  • #74
  • Edited 5:42am Jul 2, 2007 5:27am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting jacko
Hi winterwhite,

I will answer the above questions in reverse order.

1. The significance of the "4 hrly trendline being pierced" is that it is the first significant trend trading trend line to indicate that a correction is taking place that MAY result in a change in the medium / long term trend. It is to alert trend traders to the possibility that the trend may have changed.

2. Having the point 1 above in mind, I am still sceptical that this is anything other than a short term shallow correction to the long term bull trend for the Euro. (NOTE I could be wwwwrong !!).
My personal thought at this point of time is that maybe 1.3300- 1.3350 will see the bottom of this shallow corection and that it may occur next 7 - 10 days. (NOTE I could be wwwwrong !!).

However, having said that this market looks like retracing, I am NOT recommending that anyone "short" this market.

It is looking a relatively shallow correction and when the bull market is seen to be resuming, it is usual to make 100-150 pips at a time.

.
After bottoming out just below 1.3300 (1.3262) we are now on our way through the major resistance of 1.3666 to an initial target of 1.4500.

I think that a major sell-off of the USD is commencing / is in progress. I think it will accelerate in the medium term.

Having said that, make sure that you minimise your drawdowns. But don't lose sight of the long term trend.

But I could be wwwwrong...
  • #75
  • Jul 2, 2007 5:42am Jul 2, 2007 5:42am
Quoting jacko
After bottoming out just below 1.3300 (1.3262) we are now on our way through the major resistance of 1.3666 to an initial target of 1.4500.

I think that a major sell-off of the USD is commencing / is in progress. I think it will accelerate in the medium term.

Having said that, make sure that you minimise your drawdowns. But don't lose sight of the long term trend.

But I could be wwwwrong...



If you are not already in, then I suggest that you wait (!!!!!) for a retrace to 1.3500- 1.3550. (The market is currently at 1.3580).



.
  • #76
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:21pm Jul 2, 2007 12:21pm
JAcko,



Really great to see you back!

Chris
  • #77
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:31pm Jul 2, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting Cmartin371
JAcko,



Really great to see you back!

Chris


Thank you.


.
  • #78
  • Jul 2, 2007 2:49pm Jul 2, 2007 2:49pm
euro and cable are slam dunks at the moment. looks like jacko hit the nail on the head with 13300.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #79
  • Jul 3, 2007 5:42am Jul 3, 2007 5:42am
Quoting Isotonic
euro and cable are slam dunks at the moment. looks like jacko hit the nail on the head with 13300.
What are those red lines, may I ask ?
  • #80
  • Jul 4, 2007 12:32am Jul 4, 2007 12:32am
Quoting jacko
If you are not already in, then I suggest that you wait (!!!!!) for a retrace to 1.3500- 1.3550. (The market is currently at 1.3580).



.
Jacko, I am going to double up my normal load when it comes back to here. 1.3500 looks a bargain.
Thanks to you for your guidance. I have made big profits lately. I will now follow your advise and re invest my profits into bigger positions at bargain prices.
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