Hello people, let's start a thread to avoid blackswan event | Forex Factory

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Hello people, let's start a thread to avoid blackswan event

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 13, 2023 12:31am Oct 13, 2023 12:31am
Yo people, Could we actually start a small community sharing news, that could at best avoid us from suffering a event like 2015 chf crash?
  • #2
  • Oct 13, 2023 12:51am Oct 13, 2023 12:51am
Quoting TommyBoi
Yo people, Could we actually start a small community sharing news, that could at best avoid us from suffering a event like 2015 chf crash?
Nice initiative brother! Appreciate your concern and you can go for it.
  • #3
  • Oct 13, 2023 6:07am Oct 13, 2023 6:07am
Quoting Arlo0
{quote} Nice initiative brother! Appreciate your concern and you can go for it.
Appreciate that brother
  • #4
  • Oct 13, 2023 6:17am Oct 13, 2023 6:17am
The only way to avoid a black swan event is to create one.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #5
  • Oct 13, 2023 6:38am Oct 13, 2023 6:38am
Quoting FraterRedox
The only way to avoid a black swan event is to create one.
What re you talking brother
  • #6
  • Oct 13, 2023 6:53am Oct 13, 2023 6:53am
Quoting TommyBoi
Yo people, Could we actually start a small community sharing news, that could at best avoid us from suffering a event like 2015 chf crash?
You can search to find many more info about, but here are some best tips:

Use stop losses in every trade and always be aware of your account exposure

Diversify your portfolio by spreading your investments across different instruments

Keep your allocation per trade at 1 to 5 percent and maintain an overall neutral portfolio as much as possible

Consider using hedging tools such as forward contracts, currency options, and currency swaps to mitigate the effects of currency swings and FX exposure

Invest in safe havens like precious metals and move your account to cash

Learn how to trade bearishly like short selling, options puts, and spreads

Map out supply chains and their risks and look for any sectors that are moving

Accept the idea that the next black swan is bound to come and prepare for it by securing your portfolio as much as possible from adversity

As you see there are plenty ways to keep safe your account, you can use one, two or all of the above with the risk making less if a black swan event happens!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #7
  • Oct 13, 2023 8:06am Oct 13, 2023 8:06am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} You can search to find many more info about, but here are some best tips: Use stop losses in every trade and always be aware of your account exposure Diversify your portfolio by spreading your investments across different instruments Keep your allocation per trade at 1 to 5 percent and maintain an overall neutral portfolio as much as possible Consider using hedging tools such as forward contracts, currency options, and currency swaps to mitigate the effects of currency swings and FX exposure Invest in safe havens like precious metals and...
Appreciate that brother, but risking 1% and using stop loss is not gonna stay you away from blowing your account in a blackswan event.
we are talking about a 1500-4000 pips slippage.
  • #8
  • Oct 13, 2023 8:29am Oct 13, 2023 8:29am
I’d search for ”Euro CBDC” news for the rest of October.
In my opinion that could be the biggest black swan event for consumers there ever was.

No one is talking about the fact that every time in history there is an issuing of a new currency, the old one usually crashes.
There is no reason that this time should be any different. We are rapidly copying China and it’s technocracy.

It will further disillusion those who are able to start and run a business. It simply restricts freedom, and can be programmed to take your money for taxes at any time.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #9
  • Oct 13, 2023 8:43am Oct 13, 2023 8:43am
Quoting Ferna
I’d search for ”Euro CBDC” news for the rest of October. In my opinion that could be the biggest black swan event for consumers there ever was. No one is talking about the fact that every time in history there is an issuing of a new currency, the old one usually crashes. There is no reason that this time should be any different. We are rapidly copying China and it’s technocracy. It will further disillusion those who are able to start and run a business. It simply restricts freedom, and can be programmed to take your money for taxes at any time.
I think digital currency maybe isn't the biggest problem I'm concern for the privacy problem. Problem is if they keep the cash or not.
  • #10
  • Oct 13, 2023 8:47am Oct 13, 2023 8:47am
Quoting Ferna
I’d search for ”Euro CBDC” news for the rest of October. In my opinion that could be the biggest black swan event for consumers there ever was. No one is talking about the fact that every time in history there is an issuing of a new currency, the old one usually crashes. There is no reason that this time should be any different. We are rapidly copying China and it’s technocracy. It will further disillusion those who are able to start and run a business. It simply restricts freedom, and can be programmed to take your money for taxes at any time.
But thanks man, you're right, a new currency could be dangerous.
  • #11
  • Oct 13, 2023 8:52am Oct 13, 2023 8:52am
Quoting TommyBoi
{quote} I think digital currency maybe isn't the biggest problem I'm concern for the privacy problem. Problem is if they keep the cash or not.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/brazi...n-freeze-funds
”Pedro Magalhães, a blockchain developer who claims to have reverse-engineered Brazil’s pilot CBDC has found code that would allow accounts to be frozen or drained at will.


Pedro Magalhães — a blockchain developer and founder of tech consulting firm Iora Labs — later that day claimed to have been able to “reverse engineer” the open source code of Banco Central do Brazil’s digital real, revealing functions in the code.
The functions included freezing and unfreezing accounts, increasing and decreasing balances, moving currency from one address to another, and creating or burning digital real from a specific address.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #12
  • Oct 13, 2023 9:00am Oct 13, 2023 9:00am
Pals I wanna say one more thing, is that always choose a broker with 'negative balance protection', I wouldn't say it's 100% promising, but it's better than nothing always.
  • #13
  • Oct 13, 2023 9:17am Oct 13, 2023 9:17am
Quoting TommyBoi
{quote} Appreciate that brother, but risking 1% and using stop loss is not gonna stay you away from blowing your account in a blackswan event. we are talking about a 1500-4000 pips slippage.
This is it: Keep your allocation per trade at 1 to 5 percent and maintain an overall neutral portfolio as much as possible

It says about a portfolio not just an instrument like let's say Gbpusd.

Also a good answer here is that, if, we know an event is going to happen it's not a black swan event. A black swan event must happen without none has predict it before.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #14
  • Oct 13, 2023 9:44am Oct 13, 2023 9:44am
Quoting TommyBoi
Yo people, Could we actually start a small community sharing news, that could at best avoid us from suffering a event like 2015 chf crash?
With 3 ongoing wars in the world now I highly doubt anything retail traders do matters...
  • #15
  • Edited 12:11pm Oct 13, 2023 11:06am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting fx6996
{quote} With 3 ongoing wars in the world now I highly doubt anything retail traders do matters...
I think for me, tho im still at the stage growing my account. I wouldn't trade more than a $65000* of a account size. I feel like it's just not the era of getting rich, if i could make $10000 or $20000 a month im satisfied, i don't need a lambo or any luxury life. At the time i would focus more on family and frdships.
  • #16
  • Oct 13, 2023 5:22pm Oct 13, 2023 5:22pm
Quoting TommyBoi
Yo people, Could we actually start a small community sharing news, that could at best avoid us from suffering a event like 2015 chf crash?
I feel you TommyBoi! I had a EurChf positions when it happened. I have not traded any chf pairs since, as the trauma goes deep and for very good reasons. It forced me to completely review and change my risk management approaches accordingly. Since then, I risk a minuscule fraction of what I used to risk. I therefore had to cancel my plans of making a living from trading (my new risk management making my returns too small at the time) till my track record permitted me to manage funds.

Fact is, no amount of news would save you from being impacted by a black swan, if you are holding an affected instrument at the time that is.., hence the name 'Black Swan'. Looking out for news cannot protect one from an unforeseeable event, as you know.

The only way, is to lower your risk when trading, and there are many ways to do so like Js3mwtRc shared some:
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} You can search to find many more info about, but here are some best tips: Use stop losses in every trade and always be aware of your account exposure Diversify your portfolio by spreading your investments across different instruments Keep your allocation per trade at 1 to 5 percent and maintain an overall neutral portfolio as much as possible Consider using hedging tools such as forward contracts, currency options, and currency swaps to mitigate the effects of currency swings and FX exposure Invest in safe havens like...
Quoting TommyBoi
{quote} Appreciate that brother, but risking 1% and using stop loss is not gonna stay you away from blowing your account in a blackswan event. we are talking about a 1500-4000 pips slippage.
than lower your risk some more, and that will make two of us .

Excellent tips in above posts already, many of which I myself implement.

P.S scalping(in the real sense of the term) also lessens that risk, since most of the times I am not in a position at all .
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #17
  • Oct 14, 2023 12:31am Oct 14, 2023 12:31am
Quoting TommyBoi
Yo people, Could we actually start a small community sharing news, that could at best avoid us from suffering a event like 2015 chf crash?
Just give it a go brother!
  • #18
  • Oct 15, 2023 10:57pm Oct 15, 2023 10:57pm
Quoting mtako
{quote}I feel you TommyBoi! I had a EurChf positions when it happened. I have not traded any chf pairs since, as the trauma goes deep and for very good reasons. It forced me to completely review and change my risk management approaches accordingly. Since then, I risk a minuscule fraction of what I used to risk. I therefore had to cancel my plans of making a living from trading (my new risk management making my returns too small at the time) till my track record permitted me to manage funds. Fact is, no amount of news would save you from being impacted...
Do you trust the 'negative balance protection' provided by brokers? If you wanna discuss that you could come my another thread.
  • #20
  • Oct 17, 2023 3:56pm Oct 17, 2023 3:56pm
Quoting fx6996
{quote} With 3 ongoing wars in the world now I highly doubt anything retail traders do matters...
Mate, Thank you for your words. I've been thinking the whole week, and I realized that with 3 wars on going, also if you consider how sloppy price action started to become since 2022, maybe it's just not the best era to trade. I decided to take a step back and stop trading, and focusing other things, maybe trying to get into
medical school next year. I think that I already have the perfect understandings for the market, maybe some days I would come back and trade without leverage. Anyways, thanks mate, for the reminder.
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